Saturday, October 24, 2009

Week 8: Updated Predictions

I've gone through and removed most of the expectation maximization code that was adjusting the final score predictions. They were an artifact of last year's ESPN contest and no longer needed. The new predictions also are a bit more realistic since they're not trying to game a specific system. I also tried to make the highlighting a bit less painful to the eyes.

Games To Watch

Georgia Tech at Virginia: GT is the conventional favorite here, fresh off a win over Virginia Tech.  The numbers say it'll be a close one, though, with a slight nod to UVa.

Clemson at Miami (FL): Another potential ACC nailbiter.  Clemson gets the slight nod here, but just barely.

Oklahoma at Kansas: Kansas is in the Top 25 in the first BCS rankings.  Oklahoma is a .500 team.  Look for Oklahoma to start its run for a respectable bowl game here.  My numbers say pick Oklahoma, 31-17.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Florida-Atlantic at Louisiana-Lafayette: Florida Atlantic has a 50.3% chance of winning this one.  Both teams might want to steer clear of black cats and ladders before stepping onto the field.

Home
Visitors
Odds
UTEP
17
Tulsa
24
77.9
North Carolina
17
Florida St.
24
52.8
Army
7
Rutgers
24
88.4
Alabama
31
Tennessee
17
91.5
Arizona
31
UCLA
17
79.2
Arkansas St.
31
FIU
17
72.1
Baylor
17
Oklahoma St.
24
73.7
Bowling Green
17
Central Michigan
24
53.5
BYU
17
TCU
24
77.0
California
35
Washington St.
14
98.2
Cincinnati
24
Louisville
17
93.1
Colorado St.
24
SDSU
17
83.7
Duke
31
Maryland
17
75.9
Eastern Michigan
17
Ball St.
24
77.8
Hawaii
24
Boise St.
35
98.2
Houston
38
SMU
24
87.7
Kansas
17
Oklahoma
31
83.6
Kansas St.
31
Colorado
24
56.4
Kentucky
24
LA-Monroe
17
90.7
LA-Lafayette
24
FL-Atlantic
31
50.3
LSU
24
Auburn
17
72.1
Marshall
31
UAB
17
73.9
Miami-FL
14
Clemson
17
54.8
Miami-OH
24
Northern Ill.
31
94.9
Michigan
17
Penn State
24
85.1
Michigan St.
17
Iowa
24
73.4
Middle Tenn.
24
WESTERN KY.
17
88.7
Mississippi
31
Arkansas
24
72.0
Mississippi St.
24
Florida
35
97.2
Missouri
17
Texas
24
82.6
Navy
24
Wake Forest
17
81.1
Nebraska
24
Iowa St.
7
95.0
Nevada
35
Idaho
24
82.0
New Mexico
24
UNLV
31
57.1
New Mexico St.
17
Fresno St.
35
94.6
Northwestern
24
Indiana
17
70.3
Notre Dame
24
Boston College
17
75.6
Ohio
31
Kent St.
17
83.6
Ohio St.
31
Minnesota
24
94.9
Pittsburgh
24
South Florida
17
71.8
Purdue
31
Illinois
17
87.3
Rice
17
UCF
31
65.6
South Carolina
17
Vanderbilt
14
90.9
USC
31
Oregon St.
24
94.7
Southern Miss.
35
Tulane
24
97.0
Stanford
24
Arizona St.
17
62.9
Syracuse
31
Akron
17
71.4
Texas Tech
47
Texas A&M
28
95.4
Toledo
17
Temple
24
59.5
Troy
35
North Texas
17
93.7
Utah
17
Air Force
7
77.2
Utah St.
17
LA Tech
24
53.2
Virginia
24
Georgia Tech
17
60.0
Washington
17
Oregon
31
86.2
Western Michigan
31
Buffalo
24
59.9
West Virginia
31
Connecticut
17
79.3