Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps:  Ohio (+26, 51 to 25); Oklahoma (+15, 34 to 19); South Carolina (+14, 64 to 50)

Biggest drops:  Temple (-18, 16 to 34); North Carolina (-13, 22 to 35); Mississippi, South Florida, Florida State, Duke (-10).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Texas	0.9873	0.4815	24.4	8.6	88.4
002	+2	TCU	0.9873	0.4516	23.2	7.3	82.2
003	-1	Boise St.	0.9873	0.4344	26.8	11.8	82.7
004	-1	Florida	0.9873	0.5000	22.1	6.6	77.3
005	+1	Cincinnati	0.9783	0.4412	21.6	12.0	83.2
006	+1	Alabama	0.9485	0.5161	20.0	6.9	80.7
007	+5	Virginia Tech	0.9342	0.5615	20.7	9.2	80.2
008	--	Iowa	0.9307	0.5294	15.1	9.8	79.9
009	+4	Oregon	0.9304	0.5484	22.4	12.2	88.6
010	-1	Ohio St.	0.9277	0.5000	18.2	7.6	80.6
011	-1	Penn State	0.9217	0.4876	17.1	7.9	79.4
012	-7	Pittsburgh	0.9095	0.4712	19.9	12.1	78.9
013	+1	Clemson	0.8520	0.5454	18.5	12.4	83.9
014	+7	Stanford	0.8468	0.4733	22.6	16.2	80.2
015	+3	Texas Tech	0.8458	0.5120	20.5	11.8	92.3
016	+1	LSU	0.8458	0.4923	16.0	9.6	80.4
017	-6	Georgia Tech	0.8451	0.4750	22.2	15.8	78.0
018	NA	BYU	0.8246	0.4254	19.7	13.8	82.8
019	NA	Oklahoma	0.8130	0.6048	18.4	8.0	90.3
020	+3	Oregon St.	0.8122	0.5182	19.8	13.6	83.9
021	+4	Nebraska	0.8120	0.4470	14.6	7.2	81.7
022	-3	Miami-FL	0.8112	0.5508	19.5	13.1	82.5
023	-8	Houston	0.8087	0.4146	21.7	16.5	95.0
024	NA	West Virginia	0.8044	0.5189	16.2	12.0	82.5
025	NA	Ohio	0.7954	0.3952	16.7	14.6	83.8

New entries:  BYU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio

Dropped out:  Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Temple, North Carolina

The top four teams -- (1a) Texas, (1b) TCU, (1c) Boise State, and (1d) Florida -- are statistically indistinguishable.  (5) Cincinnati is only behind by 0.01.  (6) Alabama's struggles against 4-loss SEC teams are starting to take their toll in the rankings.  Will they be able to step it up this weekend against Florida when it matters most?

The surprise team in my top 10 is (7) Virginia Tech, who flattened (75) Virginia over the weekend.  Virginia Tech has has never had a defensive problem and laying 42 on their in-state rival helps a lot.  The surprise fall comes from (23) Houston, who dropped eight spots despite scoring 73 against a helpless (111) Rice.  I'll need to look into this one a little further to see exactly how that happened.

I give Justin a lot of grief over TFG's Oklahoma lovefest, but even RBA is ranking them in the top 25 this week after shellacking Oklahoma State.  Since I'm this week's idiot, I'll refrain from criticizing how a 7-5 team is at his #6 spot.  I'll leave that to Farkers, who will likely do a better job than me, anyway.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Ohio (+12, 72 to 60); South Carolina (+10, 49 to 39); Houston (+8, 43 to 35).

Biggest drops: Navy (-10, 32 to 42); South Florida (-10, 62 to 72); Oklahoma State (-8, 23 to 31); Marshall (-8, 76 to 84).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG

TCU played a weak opponent and Florida was the only of the top-tier team to really deal with their in-state rival.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Florida	0.9666	0.5884	29.2	8.4	77.7
002	+1	TCU	0.9489	0.4210	25.9	8.8	84.2
003	-1	Texas	0.9373	0.5377	29.8	10.9	86.2
004	--	Alabama	0.9333	0.6076	23.5	8.9	80.5
005	--	Ohio St.	0.9252	0.5251	21.1	8.3	83.2
006	+2	Oklahoma	0.9084	0.6917	21.5	9.2	90.2
007	-1	Penn State	0.8943	0.5178	20.9	9.5	82.1
008	+1	Virginia Tech	0.8908	0.5772	24.3	11.2	81.1
009	-2	Boise St.	0.8895	0.3920	27.2	12.6	84.8
010	+3	USC	0.8569	0.5694	20.8	10.7	85.7
011	-1	Texas Tech	0.8429	0.5915	25.9	13.9	90.0
012	--	Oregon	0.8420	0.6033	23.0	12.4	93.1
013	+2	Iowa	0.8268	0.5524	19.6	11.0	82.2
014	-3	Nebraska	0.8262	0.5078	19.3	10.8	82.0
015	-1	LSU	0.8209	0.5890	19.7	11.2	82.5
016	+4	Utah	0.7816	0.4430	20.4	12.7	86.7
017	--	Cincinnati	0.7733	0.4739	22.3	14.2	86.3
018	+1	Pittsburgh	0.7691	0.5181	21.5	13.8	82.8
019	+2	BYU	0.7685	0.4350	22.7	14.6	84.9
020	+4	Miami-FL	0.7549	0.6315	21.9	14.5	83.8
021	-5	Clemson	0.7483	0.5942	20.2	13.5	84.7
022	NA	Arkansas	0.7363	0.6555	25.7	17.6	84.8
023	-5	Mississippi	0.7319	0.6219	21.5	14.8	82.7
024	-2	Georgia Tech	0.7304	0.6120	26.2	18.1	79.5
025	NA	Oregon St.	0.7293	0.5356	20.9	14.5	87.1

New entries: Arkansas, Oregon State.

Dropped out: North Carolina, Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma continues to hang around the top 10 by virtue of defensive performances against BYU, Miami-FL, and Texas.  Lost on the system, though, is the fact that the Sooners lost all of those games.  Throw in their offensive steamrolling of Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Tulsa, and you have Bob Stoops' playbook on how to get into the top 10 of computer rankings while just hovering above 0.500 in actual play.  Boise State continues to drift downwards thanks to uninspired play against poor opponents.  Utah and Arkansas lose but climb in the rankings thanks to hanging on until OT.

TCU continues to get it done against inferior competition, whereas Texas and Alabama struggled to put away middle-of-the-pack opponents.  Right now the tickets to the title game are Florida's and Texas's to lose.  If Texas does slip up, however, will the AP voters actually put TCU in the title game against the SEC champions?

Week 13: Summary

Another relatively upset-free week in college football, another good showing for the TFG numbers, another so-so week for RBA, and another 16 games before we go bowling.  TFG went 39-10 this week (79.6%) compared with 34-15 (69.4%) for RBA.  Notable "what-the-heck-happened" games include red-hot UNC losing to North Carolina State, Houston Nutt blowing the big game against Mississippi State, and Navy forgetting to show up in the second half against Hawaii.  On to the summary.

Games of the Week

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Justin said: The Utes are thin at the running back position, but the good news is for them it's always been about defense.  If they can stop BYU's offense -- similar in adjusted efficiency to (12) Oregon -- they'll pull out the victory.
Eddie said: RBA favors BYU over Utah by a single point, 28-27, in what should be one of the best games of the day.  The winner of the turnover battle wins the Holy War.
What happened: Well, this is about as close as it gets.  BYU wins by 3 in overtime.  Utah gained more yards (298-265) got more first downs (17-14) and ran more plays (75-68).  Unfortunately the Utes just couldn't punch it into the endzone, settling for five FGs, including a crucial one in OT.  Utah also saw a lot of yellow, racking up over 100 yards in penalties.  In the end it all added up to the Utes falling short.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Eddie said: Barring a turnover-ridden game, the Yellow Jackets will out-play the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball, win decisively 41-24, and send Georgia defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to the unemployment office.
Justin said: I remain skeptical about Georgia's ability to [stop Tech's offense], so look for Tech to walk away as 38-31 winners.
What happened: This was one of the slowest games all weekend, seeing only 146 plays.  Tech never got its offense going and trailed the entire game. Combined with Clemson's loss to South Carolina, things aren't looking good for the ACC as both title game contenders were taken down by middle-of-the-pack SEC teams.  The more things change ...

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Justin said: Wake Forest has been playing well, but against tough competition.  Expect the Demon Deacons to put it all together this weekend and pull off the 27-24 victory.
Eddie said: RBA is picking Duke over Wake Forest, 31-24, in a game where the Blue Devils simply make fewer mistakes than the Demon Deacons.
What happened: Looks like the idiot tally is knotted at 1 after this defense-free showdown.  The two teams combined for 954 yards and 79 points, with Duke falling back to earth to finish the season at 5-7.  There were no major mistakes by either team, with the exception of Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis throwing a pick-six on a 4th-and-2 from their own 33.  Hey, at least Duke basketball is gearing up for their traditional November romp before underacheiving in the NCAAs.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Utah State Aggies at Idaho Vandals
Eddie: Unlike the Broncos, the Aggies' sport one of the worst defenses in the country.  In this one, the Vandals simply suck less and are playing at home.  RBA says Idaho over Utah State, 34-20 with 73.2% odds.
Justin: This game isn't likely to be described in retrospect as "pretty", but expect a lot of scoring and for the game to be decided in Utah State's favor on a late drive.  Final score: 35-31.
What happened: Sixty minutes, 195 plays, and 101 combined points.  Utah State went up 45-42 on a 75-yard reception with nine minutes to go.  Idaho would cough up the ball on the next drive and the Aggies would tack on a second TD 20 seconds after the first to go up 52-42.  Idaho would score again but couldn't get the onsides kick.  For those keeping track at home, Idaho put up an offensive efficiency of 25.1 PPH (e.g., Texas-Tech-esque) and lost.  Interesting footnote: Utah State won despite racking up 187 yards of penalties, and that is not a typo.

Week 13: Saturday Predictions

Full predictions after the jump.  Justin's are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow

Week 13: Saturday Matchups

Once again we give you two games to watch, the coin toss game of the week, and the "No, You're An Idiot" game, in which Eddie and I explain how the other is just plain wrong.  Currently Eddie has been correct once, and I have yet to be correct.

Games of the Week

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Justin: This game is a perfect example of why it's better to lose early in the season.  The 21st-ranked Cougars were crushed at home by (3) TCU 38-7 a month ago, whereas (20) Utah received their 55-28 shellacking from TCU on the road two weeks ago.  Both have similar strength of schedule and both have identical records.  But BYU is ranked four spots higher in the BCS and is a 7-point favorite.  The TFG numbers disagree, giving Utah a 4-point edge in this game, but only as a 53% favorite.  The Utes are thin at the running back position, but the good news is for them it's always been about defense.  If they can stop BYU's offense -- similar in adjusted efficiency to (12) Oregon -- they'll pull out the victory.
Eddie: RBA considers this a near toss-up because the teams have identical SoS-adjusted strengths.  (28) BYU is expected to put up 16.1 PPH, whereas (29) Utah should produce 17.1 PPH.  They have nearly identical tendencies with takeaways and penalties.  BYU tends to turn the ball over once more per game, but they're playing at home.  RBA favors BYU over Utah by a single point, 28-27, in what should be one of the best games of the day.  The winner of the turnover battle wins the Holy War.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Eddie: I love Paul Johnson and what he has done for (11) Georgia Tech.  They absolutely flatten teams with the flexbone, but RBA keeps them out of the top 10 because their defense has been terrible.  How bad?  I'm talking about Baylor-level bad, surrendering 15.4 PPH to average opponents.  On the bright side, they're consistently bad, so we expect similar performance against a (59) Georgia team looking to put the defensive ineptitude of the 2009 season behind them.  Barring a turnover-ridden game, the Yellow Jackets will out-play the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball, win decisively 41-24, and send Georgia defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to the unemployment office.
Justin: The (22) Yellow Jackets possess the third-most efficient offense in the nation behind only (1) Florida and (2) Texas.  Why, then, does TFG think so poorly of Tech that it has them 20 spots behind the Longhorns?  Defense, defense, defense.  And those three words are about as much defense as the 38th-ranked Bulldogs are going to see this weekend.  This is going to be a slow but high-scoring game, as both Tech and the Dawgs possess exceedingly average defenses; think Michigan or Washington for adjusted-efficiency analogs.  The Bulldogs' game plan needs to be all about slowing down Tech's offense because they shouldn't need to worry too much about scoring against the Yellow Jackets.  However, I remain skeptical about Georgia's ability to do just that, so look for Tech to walk away as 38-31 winners.

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Justin: This didn't turn out so well for me last week, but I've got a better feeling about this game.  Mainly because my system picked (63) Wake Forest and Eddie's picked (81) Duke.  Yes, for football.  The Blue Devils had a reasonable streak in the middle of the season, defeating Maryland, North Carolina State, and Virginia.  In restrospect, however, defeating the 59th, 80th, and 89th ranked teams in the nation does not a BCS contender make, and the Blue Devils have slipped over the last several weeks.  Wake Forest has been playing well, but against tough competition.  Expect the Demon Deacons to put it all together this weekend and pull off the 27-24 victory.
Eddie: Newsflash!  (88) Wake Forest falls in the same category as (113) Maryland, (107) NC State, and (72) Virginia.  As miserable as (74) Duke has been lately, Wake Forest has been even worse.  Duke should put up 16.4 PPH against Wake's 14.5 PPH.  Duke also turns the ball over less frequently, takes the ball away more frequently, commits fewer penalties, and plays at home.  RBA is picking Duke over Wake Forest, 31-24, in a game where the Blue Devils simply make fewer mistakes than the Demon Deacons.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Utah State Aggies at Idaho Vandals
Eddie: (66) Idaho has made serious improvements since last year but has been run over by everybody with a solid pulse, losing to Washington, Nevada, Boise State, and Fresno State by a staggering score of 206-114.  Luckily for them, (102) Utah State has been on life support for a couple of seasons now.  Idaho has been very, very sloppy on occasion, surrendering as many as seven turnovers against Boise State.  Unlike the Broncos, the Aggies' sport one of the worst defenses in the country.  In this one, the Vandals simply suck less and are playing at home.  RBA says Idaho over Utah State, 34-20 with 73.2% odds.
Justin: This matchup isn't going to be on ESPN Prime-Time anytime soon, but this should be a good game.  The line has (90) Idaho as three-point favorites, but TFG likes (86) Utah State for the upset.  Neither team plays anything really really resembling "defense", but at least the Aggies have an adjusted efficiency resembling that of Georgia (19.8 PPH versus 19.2 PPH) whereas the Vandals have a porous defense with an AdjE of 25.6 PPH, good for 9th-worst in FBS.  The Aggies, however, make up for it with an offensive efficiency of 14.5 PPH.  This game isn't likely to be described in retrospect as "pretty", but expect a lot of scoring and for the game to be decided in Utah State's favor on a late drive.  Final score: 35-31.

Full predictions available here.

Week 13: Friday Predictions

Thirteen games on the Friday of week thirteen.  Let's hope that neither Alabama nor Boise State nor Cincinnati are superstitious teams.  A loss would almost certainly destroy Alabama's chances at a trip to the national title game. Cincinnati needs to win out at hope for the misfortune of others to get into serious title contention talk.  Thanks to the dominant performance of TCU, even if Boise State wins out they'll need some good PR to leap past BCS regulars Penn State and Virginia Tech and Big Six notables like Iowa and Oklahoma State.

TFG and RBA agree on all games except Wyoming/Colorado State and Kent State/Buffalo.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(106)	Akron	38	(116)	Eastern Michigan	27	72.3	(110)	Akron	31	(119)	Eastern Michigan	17	77.5
(34)	Auburn	24	(4)	Alabama	31	90.2	(46)	Auburn	10	(7)	Alabama	28	88.4
(7)	Boise St.	38	(47)	Nevada	31	85.5	(2)	Boise St.	45	(35)	Nevada	21	81.7
(74)	Bowling Green	38	(98)	Toledo	31	68.9	(61)	Bowling Green	38	(86)	Toledo	24	70.2
(46)	Central Michigan	31	(60)	Northern Ill.	27	59.4	(43)	Central Michigan	27	(55)	Northern Ill.	20	65.1
(17)	Cincinnati	31	(78)	Illinois	24	87.4	(6)	Cincinnati	42	(95)	Illinois	7	96.6
(91)	Colorado St.	31	(107)	Wyoming	27	65.0	(106)	Colorado St.	24	(85)	Wyoming	25	52.8
(75)	Colorado	20	(11)	Nebraska	31	89.8	(97)	Colorado	17	(25)	Nebraska	31	78.9
(101)	Kent St.	27	(79)	Buffalo	31	69.2	(93)	Kent St.	25	(83)	Buffalo	24	54.8
(83)	Louisville	24	(41)	Rutgers	31	78.1	(81)	Louisville	17	(38)	Rutgers	24	64.9
(72)	Ohio	27	(61)	Temple	31	58.5	(51)	Ohio	31	(16)	Temple	32	53.5
(71)	Tulsa	38	(103)	Memphis	27	76.7	(87)	Tulsa	31	(100)	Memphis	21	64.9
(30)	West Virginia	27	(19)	Pittsburgh	31	60.4	(27)	West Virginia	20	(4)	Pittsburgh	24	62.6

Week 13: Thursday Predictions

Texas may be one of the two best teams in the country, but they'll have to stay sharp to avoid an upset on the road against the Aggies.  TFG says the Longhorns take it in a walk, but RBA is less bullish on the odds for its number one team.  As long as Texas doesn't get caught looking past A&M to the Big XII or National title games they should cruise.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(53)	Texas A&M	24	(2)	Texas	41	94.6	(63)	Texas A&M	21	(1)	Texas	45	82.3

Week 13: The BCS Picture, Part II

This is the second half of yesterday's discussion of the BCS.  In that post we examined the title game and the Orange Bowl.  Today we look at the Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose Bowls.

Update: Yesterday I mistakenly said that the Orange Bowl would get first pick from the At-Large teams.  Upon further review of the BCS eligibility and selection rules it seems that the bowl that loses the top seed to the national title game gets first pick, followed by the bowl that loses the number two seed to the title game.  In this case -- assuming Florida finishes at #1 and Texas at #2 -- the Sugar Bowl will get first pick, followed by the Fiesta Bowl.  The full selection order would then be

1. Sugar (SEC champion replacement)
2. Fiesta (Big XII champion replacement)
3. Orange (at-large, will play ACC champion)
   
4. Fiesta (at-large, will play Big XII replacement)
5. Sugar (at-large, will play SEC replacement)

Alabama would fill the Sugar Bowl slot, which brings us to ...

Week 13: Tuesday Predictions

Just one game tonight and while we both agree that Western Michigan is the 96th-best team in the country, we disagree on how well Ball State will do against them.  I tentatively have Ball State as being strong enough to pull off the upset, but Eddie has them as only having a 1-in-4 shot of pulling off the victory.  Disagreement is an excellent way to start off the week.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(96)	Western Michigan	27	(97)	Ball St.	31	52.9	(96)	Western Michigan	34	(114)	Ball St.	20	74.8

Week 13: BCS Picture, Part I

The last time we looked in at the race for the National Title game (parts one and two) we examined each of the seven undefeated teams.  At the time the TFG numbers were bullish on Florida, Texas, Alabama, TCU, and Boise State, with questions about Iowa and Cincinnati.  Iowa has since dropped not one but two games and is highly unlikely to get an at-large bid.  Let's examine each of the five BCS bowl games, the likely participants, and the projected results.

BCS Title Game

Conventional wisdom says we're set to see a Florida/Texas title game, and TFG won't argue with that.  Florida is a 93.5% favorite over Florida State this weekend with a projected final score of 38-24.  Following that is the SEC title game against Alabama, in which the Gators are 59.4% favorites.  This is the most likely scenario, currently sitting at 55.5%.  The second-most likely scenario is Alabama defeats Auburn and Florida to earn their ticket to the title game (36.6%).  The only chances of seeing neither Florida nor Alabama on January 7th are

• Florida loses to Florida State and defeats Alabama
• Alabama loses to Auburn and defeats Florida
• Florida loses to Florida State AND Alabama loses to Auburn

Collectively these sit somewhere in the 1-in-12 category.  Texas, on the other hand, has a much smoother ride to an undefeated season.  TFG pegs them as 17-point favorites over A&M on Thursday and 9-point favorites over Nebraska in the Big XII title game.  If I were the Longhorns I'd be cheering for Florida State and Alabama over the next few weeks and here's why.

Longhorns			Opponent			Odds
(2)	Texas	31	(1)	Florida	32	56.7
(2)	Texas	31	(4)	Alabama	28	52.8

Either way it would be a close game, but there's a 4-point swing and a 9% shift in the odds.  Granted, Alabama's stats would improve if they defeat Florida, but as it stands the Longhorns would rather match up against the Tide instead of the Gators.

Orange Bowl

The Orangle Bowl will pit the ACC champion against an at-large BCS selection.  Since the Orange Bowl gets first pick amongst the "best of the rest", conventional wisdom says that undefeated Georgia Tech will host TCU on January 5th.  First, however, Tech has to win the ACC championship game against Clemson.  Tech already defeated the Tigers in Atlanta at the start of the season, 30-27 on a last-minute field goal.  Clemson has dropped two games since then: a stunner to Maryland, and a 14-10 home loss to TCU.

TFG numbers, however, currently list the Tigers as a 33-32 favorite over the Yellow Jackets.  Should Clemson defy conventional wisdom and win a trip to Miami, they earn the right to a rematch against the Horned Frogs.  While TCU would be the clear favorite in such a rematch they have reason to be worried; the Tigers held TCU to their lowest point total all season.  Only Clemson and Air Force have held TCU below 30 points all year.  But what does TFG tell us to expect in these matchups?

Horned Frogs			Opponent			Odds
(3)	TCU	36	(22)	Georgia Tech	30	86.1
(3)	TCU	32	(16)	Clemson	25	82.0

Either ACC team will have an uphill battle.  Compared to Tech, Clemson has the superior defense and would hope to keep TCU within striking distance. The Yellow Jackets will follow their usual formula and try to outgun the opposition. All signs point to another mid-major upset of a Big Six conference champion.

Tomorrow:  Projecting the Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose Bowls.

RBA and the BCS Log-Jam

RBA currently identifies the top five teams as having statistically indistinguishable records:  Texas, Boise State, Florida, TCU, and Pittsburgh.  What is particularly interesting about these five teams is that we cannot create an ordering based on expected head-to-head matchups.  The reasoning behind this is intuitive; teams simply match up better against certain other teams.  Given this information, who wins the national championship in a round robin home-and-home battle royale?  Full details after the jump.

Week 13: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps:  Temple (+17, 33 to 16), North Carolina (+16, 38 to 22), Ohio (+15, 66 to 51), UCF (+12, 57 to 45), East Carolina (+11, 61 to 50).

Biggest drops:  Northern Illinois (-14, 41 to 55), Oklahoma (-13, 21 to 34), Rutgers (-13, 25 to 38).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 13: Top 25 -- RBA

Minor shuffling among the top teams as Florida's SoS takes a hit from playing Florida International.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+1	Texas	0.9873	0.4732	24.2	7.5	88.1
002	+1	Boise St.	0.9832	0.3846	26.7	11.1	82.7
003	-2	Florida	0.9831	0.4857	21.6	6.7	77.7
004	+1	TCU	0.9830	0.4951	23.3	7.2	81.3
005	+1	Pittsburgh	0.9830	0.4471	20.9	11.8	78.3
006	-2	Cincinnati	0.9565	0.4651	21.3	11.0	82.4
007	+1	Alabama	0.9447	0.5096	20.1	6.4	80.7
008	-1	Iowa	0.9333	0.5214	15.1	9.8	79.9
009	--	Ohio St.	0.9270	0.5118	18.3	7.4	80.6
010	--	Penn State	0.9214	0.4957	17.2	7.9	79.4
011	+1	Georgia Tech	0.9138	0.4700	22.9	15.4	78.5
012	-1	Virginia Tech	0.9134	0.5926	20.1	8.7	80.9
013	+1	Oregon	0.9060	0.5478	22.4	12.3	88.6
014	+1	Clemson	0.9022	0.5400	19.3	11.6	83.7
015	-2	Houston	0.8676	0.4257	21.2	16.7	95.2
016	NA	Temple	0.8500	0.3333	17.7	13.8	80.8
017	-1	LSU	0.8304	0.4818	15.6	9.0	79.6
018	+4	Texas Tech	0.8217	0.5429	21.9	12.2	92.7
019	+1	Miami-FL	0.8178	0.5657	19.0	13.6	83.0
020	-2	Oklahoma St.	0.8166	0.5238	18.2	12.6	85.8
021	-4	Stanford	0.8153	0.4595	22.1	15.7	80.5
022	NA	North Carolina	0.8079	0.5843	11.7	9.4	81.0
023	-4	Oregon St.	0.8062	0.5050	19.7	13.8	83.9
024	-1	Arkansas	0.8043	0.5784	25.6	16.0	83.4
025	NA	Nebraska	0.8000	0.4505	14.4	6.8	82.0

New entries:  Temple, North Carolina, Nebraska.

Dropped out:  Wisconsin, Rutgers, Oklahoma.

The top five teams are separated by a statistically insignificant amount.  (Expect a post about this later in the week.)  Will rivalry week bring clarity to the national championship picture?

Week 13: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: UCF (+16, 68 to 52); East Carolina (+14, 65 to 51); Syracuse (+14, 101 to 87); North Carolina (+10, 35 to 25); Temple (+10, 71 to 61).

Biggest drops: Rutgers (-15, 26 to 41); Baylor (-12, 73 to 85); Tulsa (-11, 60 to 71); Northern Illinois (-10, 50 to 60).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 13: Top 25 -- TFG

Some more shuffling at the top, but the Florida, Texas, TCU, and Alabama are starting to separate themselves from the pack.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+2	Florida	0.9627	0.5712	29.7	8.9	77.8
002	-1	Texas	0.9518	0.5380	29.5	9.8	86.2
003	-1	TCU	0.9507	0.4657	25.9	8.6	83.8
004	--	Alabama	0.9464	0.5912	24.1	8.3	80.7
005	--	Ohio St.	0.9257	0.5256	21.1	8.3	83.2
006	+3	Penn State	0.8958	0.5197	21.3	9.6	82.3
007	--	Boise St.	0.8954	0.3601	27.4	12.3	84.7
008	-2	Oklahoma	0.8904	0.6965	21.8	10.0	90.4
009	-1	Virginia Tech	0.8890	0.6000	23.8	11.0	81.5
010	+6	Texas Tech	0.8569	0.6218	27.5	14.2	90.2
011	+1	Nebraska	0.8449	0.5180	18.9	10.1	82.3
012	-2	Oregon	0.8417	0.6050	22.6	12.2	93.1
013	-2	USC	0.8409	0.5704	21.0	11.3	85.3
014	-1	LSU	0.8298	0.5629	20.3	11.3	81.9
015	--	Iowa	0.8245	0.5539	19.5	11.0	82.2
016	-2	Clemson	0.8087	0.5962	21.1	12.3	84.1
017	--	Cincinnati	0.7970	0.4998	22.0	13.3	85.8
018	--	Mississippi	0.7958	0.6210	21.6	13.0	83.4
019	--	Pittsburgh	0.7908	0.5127	23.0	14.1	82.3
020	+1	Utah	0.7887	0.4065	21.1	12.9	85.8
021	+2	BYU	0.7643	0.3966	22.9	14.8	84.0
022	--	Georgia Tech	0.7565	0.6174	27.6	18.1	79.6
023	-3	Oklahoma St.	0.7511	0.5894	23.6	15.7	83.7
024	NA	Miami-FL	0.7412	0.6700	22.3	15.1	84.0
025	NA	North Carolina	0.7353	0.6476	17.2	11.8	82.6

New entries: Miami-FL, North Carolina.

Dropped out: Oregon State, Stanford.

A mere two weeks ago there were eight teams playing above-0.900 ball; this week it's down to five.  The top 13 teams have broken into four packs

• Florida, Texas, TCU, and Alabama;
• Ohio State;
• Penn State, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech;
• Texas Tech, Nebraska, Oregon, and USC.

Oklahoma continues to see decreasing efficiencies on both sides of the ball, only remaining in the top ten thanks to lackluster play from Oregon, USC, and LSU.  The Sooners were dismantled by a Texas Tech team on the rise -- making me the official loser of our first "No, You're An Idiot" weekly segment -- but the teams immediately below them were unable to make up any ground.  Oregon needed two overtimes to put away (28) Arizona, USC had a bye week, and LSU had some issues reading the clock in a loss to (18) Ole Miss.

Outside of the BCS Bowl picture the story of the last four weeks has to be the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have gone 6-1 since losing at home to Virginia.  UNC has climbed 29 spots in that span, including wins over (42) Boston College, (24) Miami-FL, and (9) Virginia Tech.  Their only loss during that stretch was a 30-27 heartbreaker against (39) Florida State.  If UNC defeats (80) North Carolina State next week, they'll hoist themselves into a likely three-way tie for second in the ACC's Coastal Division.  Their companions in this tie?  Miami-FL (already done with their ACC slate) and Virginia Tech (visiting (59) Virginia this weekend).

This week we'll take a look at the BCS Bowl picture and project possible matchups.

Week 12: Summary

Overall it was a good week for Justin's Tempo-Free Gridiron numbers, going 42-10 for an 80.8% accuracy rate.  Eddie's RBA predictions did well but missed a few close games -- UNC/BC, Army/North Texas, and UConn/Notre Dame -- resulting in a 39-13 record (75.0%) this week.

Part of this accuracy was due to the lack of notable upsets.  The two biggest upsets according to both TFG and RBA numbers were Northwestern over Wisconsin and Syracuse over Rutgers.  Ole Miss over LSU was the "upset" that everyone's talking about, but neither of our systems gave LSU better than a 63% chance of winning; even the oddsmakers were backing Ole Miss this time around, meaning it would be a stretch to call that a true upset.

Games to Watch

Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers.
Justin said: Barring a big turnaround, expect Purdue to score late and pull out a close victory.
Eddie said: Expect a late Purdue turnover to send the Old Oaken Bucket back to Bloomington with a Hoosiers' 32-31 victory.
What happened: Indiana dominated in yards gained (462-329), first downs (23-15), and plays (75-62).  But throw in two missed field goals, a fumble at their own 19 to start the game, and a quick Purdue start, and you have an Indiana team that's down 21-0 in the second quarter.  Combine that with an uncharacteristically turnover-free Purdue team and the Hoosiers' four turnovers, and you have the Boilermakers in a walk.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels.
Eddie said: For all their faults, LSU plays sound defense and doesn't turn the ball over, so they pull of a close win in Oxford, 18-17.
Justin said: LSU has the slight edge on defense that will be the deciding factor.  Expect this one to go to the wire with LSU emerging as 27-24 victors.
What happened: By now most people have heard about LSU's clock management issues at the end of this game.  In the post-game press conference, LSU coach Les Miles claims he doesn't know who told his quarterback to spike the ball.  However the Fan IQ blog suggests Coach Miles may want to watch this video in the hopes he can identify the man in the LSU windbreaker making a "spike the ball" motion towards his QB (fun starts at the 1:20 mark).  Apparently you can model points, yards, and turnovers, but not stupid.  Had the Tigers managed to make the FG they would have emerged 26-25 victors; as it stands they fall further in the SEC standings with their 25-23 loss.

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of The Week

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Justin said: Expect Oklahoma to get enough offense in bits and pieces to put away Texas Tech, 35-31.
Eddie said: Oklahoma's defense may slow Tech down, but home field advantage tips the game in favor of the Red Raiders, 27-24.
What happened: This one wasn't even close, and Justin gets the wear the dunce cap for this week.  Oklahoma took a 6-3 lead at the start of the second quarter, before the Red Raiders methodically dumped 31 unanswered points on the Sooner's defense.  Oklahoma scored their only touchdown in garbage time, and TTU hung another 7 on them in response.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

North Carolina Tar Heels at Boston College Eagles.
Eddie said: RBA says 21-20 Boston College.
Justin said: The law of common opponents, the tempo-free numbers and my gut all tell me UNC pulls this one out.  Final score: 24-20.
What happened: UNC is a team on the rise.  After beating Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and Miami-FL in Chapel Hill, Boston College presented even less of a challenge.  UNC scores on two of BCs first three possession (you read that correctly) to go up 21-0 before 10 minutes had passed.  The rest of the game was pretty much cruise control as BC never really threatened UNC the rest of the way.  Yet another CTGotW that was anything but close.

Week 12: Saturday Predictions

Full predictions after the jump.  Justin's are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow.

Week 12: Saturday Matchups

This week we give you two games to watch, the coin toss game of the week, and a new item: the "No, You're An Idiot" game, in which Eddie and I explain how the other is just plain wrong.

Games to Watch

Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers.
Justin: Here are two teams that are better than their 4-7 records would indicate.  (80) Indiana lost two of their last four by a combined total of four points, and played a good Iowa team solid into the second half until they were overcome by penalties and turnovers.  (52) Purdue suffered a string of close losses early in the season -- four of them by a touchdown or less -- but has pulled it together recently.  Both are looking to salvage something from this season, and it's going to come down to defense.  Both teams have similar offensive efficiencies, but Indiana's defense has been porous, allowing 21.2 PPH.  Barring a big turnaround, expect Purdue to score late and pull out a close victory.
Eddie: You can call this game the pillow fight of the week if you want, but RBA suggests that it's going to turn into a high-scoring affair with (75) Purdue expecting 18.1 PPH and (91) Indiana expecting 19.8 PPH while pushing the tempo to around 170 plays.  Both teams struggle mightily with turnovers and penalties but should provide each other with short fields and scoring opportunities.  Expect a late Purdue turnover to send the Old Oaken Bucket back to Bloomington with a Hoosiers' 32-31 victory.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels.
Eddie: The BCS computers say (19) LSU is a top 10 team, but RBA isn't buying it thanks to an offense that doesn't bother to show up against quality opponents.  (28) Ole Miss, in typical Houston Nutt fashion, is ten different types of erratic, committing turnovers and penalties at an alarming rate but getting strokes of brilliance from WR/RB Dexter McCluster.  For all their faults, LSU plays sound defense and doesn't turn the ball over, so they pull of a close win in Oxford, 18-17.
Justin: While we agree on the outcome, I expect (18) Mississippi to have slightly better odds of pulling the upset against (13) LSU than Eddie's system (56.5% versus 62.8%).  And while we're in agreement over who's going to leave Oxford a winner, we apparently both disagree with the oddsmakers who have Ole Miss as a four point favorite.  While Ole Miss has put up better offensive numbers than LSU, LSU has the slight edge on defense that will be the deciding factor.  Expect this one to go to the wire with LSU emerging as 27-24 victors.

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of The Week

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Justin: Of all my rankings that have been the target of the most ridicule, having Oklahoma as the 6th-best team in the nation is right up there.  The (6) Sooners haven't been winning games with offense; it's been their 4th-ranked defense -- behind only TCU, Alabama, and Ohio State -- that keeps them near the top of the rankings.  The (16) Red Raiders have had problems with good defenses, only managing to put up 24 against a solid Texas defense and a season-low 17 against a mediocre Oklahoma State.  It's fair to say that TTU hasn't seen a defense like this and are the clear underdogs.  Expect Oklahoma to get enough offense in bits and pieces to put away Texas Tech, 35-31.
Eddie: I don't think it's a stretch to call (21) Oklahoma the best four-loss team in America, but they certainly aren't the #6 team in the country.  RBA isn't as bullish as TFG because Oklahoma's offense exhibits a pretty steep drop-off against better defenses.  (22) Texas Tech doesn't have an elite defense, but when adjusted for strength-of-schedule and tempo, they're better than Miami (FL) and BYU who both beat Oklahoma.  Texas Tech is also relatively opportunistic, averaging a shade under two takeaways per game.  Oklahoma's defense may slow Tech down, but home field advantage tips the game in favor of the Red Raiders, 27-24.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

North Carolina Tar Heels at Boston College Eagles.
Eddie: Neither team has been particularly impressive, despite identical 7-3 records.  (38) UNC is consistently bland offensively, with efficiencies between 9.9-13.1 PPH across all opponent strengths.  In this matchup, we expect (40) BC to produce only 11.9 PPH, compared to UNC's 13.6 PPH, but BC's home field advantage and reduced penalty count make up the difference.  RBA says 21-20 Boston College.
Justin: While my tempo-free stats put the (35) Tar Heels as favorites over the (36) Eagles, it's going to be a close one.  Both systems tag this as the most up-in-the-air game this week, so we'd be lying if we said we had a favorite.  UNC is on a bit of a hot streak recently, having put away Miami-FL and Virginia Tech, and is looking to end the season on a high note.  The law of common opponents, the tempo-free numbers and my gut all tell me UNC pulls this one out.  Final score: 24-20.

Current Rankings - RBA

Update: as of August 2, 2012, the most recent RBA rankings have been moved to this page.

Pac-10: Less Crowded at the Top (for now)

Last week I presented a scenario in which we might see a three-way tie at the top of the Pac-10 with Oregon, Oregon State, and USC all knotted at 7-2.  That particular scenario didn't play out thanks to the sudden rise of Stanford, beating Oregon and USC on back-to-back weekends.  That should end the speculation about crazy tiebreakers, right?  This is now Oregon's Rose Bowl to lose ... right?

Apparently I wasn't thinking big enough.  Seattle Times sports columnist Bud Withers described an even more thorny scenario in which six teams lock horns at 6-3 at the end of conference play.  How, you may ask, does this conundrum develop?

Week 12: Friday Predictions

One serious BCS contender playing tonight.  Boise State's strength of schedule takes another hit, and they'll have to win big in order to stay in the BCS bowl picture.  Another narrow win like last week's victory over LA Tech and Boise State will be on the outside looking in.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(74)	Bowling Green	31	(107)	Akron	24	78.1	(65)	Bowling Green	35	(110)	Akron	17	75.4
(102)	Toledo	38	(116)	Eastern Michigan	31	75.9	(97)	Toledo	41	(118)	Eastern Michigan	21	79.7
(89)	Utah St.	24	(7)	Boise St.	38	96.0	(105)	Utah St.	20	(3)	Boise St.	42	91.4

Week 12: Thursday Predictions

A light night in college football.  Just one game and it's not expected to be close.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(20)	Oklahoma St.	38	(81)	Colorado	24	86.7	(18)	Oklahoma St.	38	(93)	Colorado	14	80.6

Does the Big XII North Champion Have Any Chance?

The Pac10 is shaping up for a great finale with a potential six-way tiebreaker.  The SEC is set for Florida-Alabama.  The Big East is bearing down on Cincinnati-Pittsburgh for the conference title.  Then, there's the Big XII where Texas will play the best of limited options from the Big XII North.  As of today, the only teams still in the running are Nebraska (7-3, 4-2) and Kansas State (6-5, 4-3).  Clearly, anything is possible in a one-game series, as Darren Sproles, Tavita Prichard, Ian Johnson, and Armanti Edwards can attest.  Under what circumstances is it possible for either of these teams to beat Texas?

Nebraska (7-3)

Pros:  Nebraska has one of the most dominant defenses in college football.  In fact, when adjusted to an average opponent, Nebraska commands the #1 scoring defense in the country at 7.1 PPH, giving them the best possible opportunity to slow down Texas's #3 ranked offense.  They are extremely good at taking the ball away, averaging 1.9 takeaways/100 plays.  They should be able to disrupt Texas's offense and force them into playing an ugly game, reducing the gap that Nebraska's mediocre 14.8 PPH offense needs to overcome.

Cons:  Unfortunately, Nebraska is tied with Texas for the #1 defense in the country.  Their offense has struggled so mightily against quality opponents, that we actually expect them to get shutout before considering Texas turnovers and penalties.  Nebraska's offense turns the ball over 1.8 times per 100 plays, consistently killing their offensive momentum.

RBA Prediction:  Texas 24 - Nebraska 3.

Best Case Scenario:  If Nebraska can play flawlessly on offense by eliminating their turnovers and penalties, they can make up about a field goal in this game, leaving them at an 18-point disadvantage.  They need to have a career day from RB Roy Helu, Jr. to reduce Texas's offensive play count while the Nebraska defense gets after QB Colt McCoy.

Kansas State (6-5)

Pros:  The Wildcats have improved quite a bit under Bill Snyder and have shown to have a consistent offense, demonstrating 12.8-14.7 PPH across all ranges of competition.  They haven't played anybody with Texas's strength, but there's no current indication that they will have trouble scoring some points against Texas.  They are also very opportunistic on defense, averaging 2.3 takeaways per 100 plays.

Cons:  Aside from their ability to generate turnovers, Kansas State's defense is terrible.  In fact, the slope on their defensive statistics is the highest of all teams in FBS, implying that they have the worst defensive slip against quality competition.  RBA suggests that Texas will be able to put up a touchdown every 10 plays, and Texas plays fast.  Texas should score at will and empty the benches early in the third quarter.

RBA Prediction:  Texas 77 - Kansas State 20

Best Case Scenario:  I think RBA is a little overzealous by picking Texas to hang 77 on Kansas State because Mack Brown would call off the dogs long before that to avoid injuries for the BCS Championship.  Kansas State needs Texas to melt down offensively, gift wrap a few turnovers, and forget how to play rush defense.  I know that anything is possible, but this particular upset would rank up there with Stanford-Southern Cal in 2007.  Honestly, the best thing that can happen to Kansas State is losing to Nebraska this Saturday.

Week 12: Wednesday Predictions

From here on out we'll be posting our predictions for the day's games at noon, Pacific Time. My predictions will be in blue and Eddie's will be in yellow. The numbers next to each team are their rankings in our respective systems. In the future we plan to merge the tables a bit to highlight where we're in agreement and we think each other are off-base.

With that, here are tonight's games.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(92) Ball St.	24	(53) Central Michigan	31	75.0
(109) Miami-OH	27	(85) Buffalo	31	76.1

Home		Visitors		Odds
(114) Ball St.	17	(45) Central Michigan	38	87.3
(111) Miami-OH	20	(96) Buffalo	21	58.1

TFG Gets a Schedule

We're going to do things slightly differently starting this week.  Each day where there's a game we'll be posting our picks that morning.  In addition, we're establishing a regular schedule from now until the end of the season.

• Monday: New rankings and commentary on our rankings
• Tuesday: A look at the BCS picture at non-"Big Six" teams
• Wednesday: Discussing the ACC and Big East
• Thursday: The Big 12 and Big 10
• Friday: The SEC and Pac-10
  

This will be in addition to whatever commentary or subjects happen to inspire Eddie or me at the time.  Mark your calendars!

Introducing Regression-Based Analysis

I'd like to thank Justin for the opportunity to share my competing algorithm with the TFG readers. I have taken a different path deliberately to explore different ways of predicting college football games. I'm a big fan of the tempo-free statistics, but I thought of several components that Justin's algorithm implicitly neglects. In particular, the TFG method focuses solely on teams' average performance rather than their variances. My regression-based algorithm (RBA) explicitly models a team's offensive and defensive performance as a function of opponent strength and places a premium on turnovers and penalties, which can turn the tide of a single-game contest. (See Arkansas-Florida 2009, where Arkansas forced four turnovers to get within striking distance and got absolutely boned by penalties late in the 4th.)

I agree with Justin that all statistics need to be scaled by the number of plays to generate a tempo-free statistic. Unless otherwise specified, all the statistics in this description may be computed as points per 100 plays. The last step of the algorithm will be to scale the tempo-free point total by the expected number of plays.

Estimating Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

My algorithm begins by computing offensive and defensive statistics as a function of opponent strength. For simplicity, I will only discuss the offensive efficiency because the same computations are used to compute the defensive efficiency. I approximate the offensive efficiency using least-squares approximation because it minimizes mean-square error. We model the offensive efficiency as the linear equation Y = m*X + b, where X is a random variable representing the opponent's strength and Y is the offensive efficiency. We use least squares to estimate the parameters (m,b).

The following figure illustrates Auburn's offensive and defensive efficiency. The horizontal axis indicates opponent strength. The vertical axis shows efficiency per 100 plays. Each cross represents the measured offensive efficiency in a game. Each circle represents measured defensive efficiency. These blue and red lines show the least-squares approximation of the offensive and defensive efficiencies, respectively. From this plot, we observe the expected behavior. Auburn's offense scores fewer points against stronger opponents and their defense allows more points against stronger opponents.

Let's contrast this performance with Florida. Florida's performance is relatively constant across opponents of all strengths, implying that they impose their offensive and defensive will against all their opponents.

Impact of Turnovers, Takeaways, and Penalties Turnovers and penalties represent behavior synonymous with sloppy play. Conversely, takeaways indicate exceptional play. In general, we expect the former to reduce an opponent's efficiency and the latter to improve an opponent's efficiency. For simplicity, we will restrict our discussion to turnovers, as the same analysis is used for takeaways and penalties. To determine the impact of an event on a team's score, we compute the difference between the team's score and its mean score. For example, if a team scores 21 points in a game but averages 27, we indicate an impact of -6 points. I started out simply using the points per turnover as a metric: points/turnover * turnovers/play * plays = points/play. However, this approach is full of mathematical FAIL. Actually, we observe an increase in efficiency when a team has only one turnover because even great teams tend to commit at least one turnover a game. To accommodate this behavior, we model efficiency as a joint probability distribution of turnovers and points. The following figure illustrates the points per 100 plays a team loses for committing a given number of turnovers.

The solid line indicates the mean number of points. We assume a Gaussian distribution for a given number of turnovers. The error bars indicate one standard deviation from the mean (68% of outcomes lie within this range).An interesting observation is that turnovers are not a good estimator when few turnovers are committed. This makes sense because if we have few turnovers, the game's outcome must have been determined from other sources. We also observe a general downward trend as the number of turnovers increases because, as expected, turnovers negatively impact a team's performance. A small rise occurs at seven turnovers because few samples in this range.

Generating Final Scores The final score may be computed by summing all the random variables in the RBA: score = ((Po + Pd)/2 + Ph + Pto + Pta + Pn) * N where Po = offensive points/play, Pd = opponent's defensive points/play, Ph = home field advantage (or away field penalty), Pto = turnover derating, Pta = takeaway bonus, Pn = penalty derating, and N = number of plays.

Due to the central limit theorem, the summation of a series of random variables converges to a Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, the summation a*X1+b*X2 of two Gaussian variables N(m1, v1) and N(m2, v2) is a Gaussian N(a*m1+b*m2, a^2*v1+b^2*v2). From these two computations, we may compute a closed form solution for the final efficiency. For simplicity, we only use the mean for N instead of its probability distribution. (Frankly, the math requires over 14 pages of dense mathematics to explain.)

Conclusion

That's how the RBA algorithm works. I'm still relatively new to the practice of teaching my computer to pick college football games, so we can expect a few tweaks here and there throughout the remainder of the season and during the offseason. Your suggestions are welcome!

A Second Point of View

The Tempo-Free Gridiron is getting a second author to help provide another take on college football.  Eddie is a diehard college football junkie with an encyclopedic knowledge of the game.  He's the complete opposite of myself in that regard, as I have no allegiance to any particular team or conference.  I do this out of pure curiosity for the statistics and predictions with no regard to the names on the jersey (or boxscore).  As you'll see, Eddie starts with the exact same data set that I use, but his system attempts to account for more factors out of the gate.  This should be an interesting contrast in styles: blank slate versus encyclopedia, and simple versus comprehensive.

In his introductory post Eddie will give you the under-the-hood look at his methodology along with his current rankings and predictions for upcoming games.  Over the next week we hope to do per-conference breakdowns and a look at the BCS picture, along with some compare-and-contrast posts that highlight differences in our systems and their results.

Welcome, Eddie.

Week 12: Full Rankings

Biggest jumps: Nevada (+22, 67 to 45); Rutgers (+16, 42 to 26); Stanford (+8, 32 to 24); South Carolina (+8, 55 to 47); UCLA (+8, 64 to 56).

Biggest drops: South Florida (-16, 48 to 64); Texas A&M (-10, 51 to 61); Arkansas State (-10, 89 to 99).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 12: Top 25

Another week, another set of new rankings.  I'm making a point of getting these in before the BCS polls come out.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+1	Texas	0.9562	0.5365	29.4	9.4	85.9
002	+1	TCU	0.9544	0.4982	25.4	8.2	84.2
003	-2	Florida	0.9533	0.6201	28.8	9.4	78.3
004	+1	Alabama	0.9479	0.5916	24.4	8.3	80.7
005	-1	Ohio St.	0.9305	0.5342	22.0	8.4	82.7
006	--	Oklahoma	0.9261	0.6759	22.7	8.9	90.8
007	--	Boise St.	0.9001	0.3725	26.6	11.8	84.9
008	+2	Virginia Tech	0.8830	0.6152	24.2	11.4	82.0
009	--	Penn State	0.8756	0.4976	19.9	9.6	82.4
010	+1	Oregon	0.8542	0.5957	23.0	11.9	91.7
011	-3	USC	0.8439	0.5816	20.8	11.1	85.7
012	+1	Nebraska	0.8380	0.5400	19.9	10.8	82.1
013	-1	LSU	0.8366	0.5457	20.0	10.9	81.7
014	--	Clemson	0.8249	0.6111	20.3	11.4	84.8
015	+2	Iowa	0.8138	0.5708	20.9	12.1	81.9
016	-1	Texas Tech	0.8064	0.5848	25.5	15.1	90.2
017	-1	Cincinnati	0.7994	0.4951	22.2	13.3	86.0
018	+7	Mississippi	0.7982	0.5939	21.2	12.8	83.1
019	--	Pittsburgh	0.7853	0.5121	22.9	14.2	82.5
020	+1	Oklahoma St.	0.7732	0.6038	23.9	15.2	83.3
021	-1	Utah	0.7696	0.4345	21.7	13.9	85.7
022	NA	Georgia Tech	0.7561	0.6176	27.9	18.3	79.5
023	-5	BYU	0.7426	0.3827	22.4	15.2	83.2
024	NA	Stanford	0.7375	0.5451	25.4	17.3	83.0
025	-1	Oregon St.	0.7354	0.6061	20.8	14.2	87.5

New entries: Georgia Tech, Stanford.

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Tennessee.

The ordering at the top shuffled around slightly as Texas and TCU leapfrog Florida after the Gators put up a lackluster performance against then-(55) South Carolina.  Winning percentage-wise, however, the top three teams are separated by less than three one-thousandths of a point.  TCU's dismantling of previous (20) Utah helped them maintain their power ranking but also improved their lackluster strength of schedule.  Alabama leapfrogged Ohio State after the Buckeyes barely snuck by Iowa.  Oklahoma and Boise State continue to drift down in winning percentage but hold their positions by lack of any solid competitors stepping up to claim the spots.

USC drops a staggering five one-hundreths of a point in winning percentage but only drops three places.  One more game like the one against Stanford and the Trojans will be in the same rarified air as Pittsburgh and Oklahoma State.  Oregon finally leapfrogs USC as the top team in the Pac-10, but Stanford is on a tear.  Over the last three weeks Stanford has climbed an NCAA-best 28 spots in the rankings.  Their nearest competition for "Most Improved" are UNC and Nevada, each climbing 18 spots in the same stretch.  Two more solid games to close out the year and Stanford could easily be a Top 15 team.

Georgia Tech clinched the ACC Coastal Title by pounding a hapless Duke team in Durham.  They appear to be on track for a rematch with Clemson, a team which they barely beat at home at the start of the season.  Were they to meet on a neutral field right now, Clemson would be a 60-40 favorite.  Mississippi claims the "Most Improved Within the Top 25" label for this week, jumping seven spots to 18th after defeating Tennessee at home.