Pac-10: Crowded at the Top

For once the Pac-10 isn't all about just USC this year.  Currently four Pac-10 teams are in the BCS Top 25, and three of those are in the TFG Top 25 (Arizona peeks in at number 26).  With only a few games left, here are the current Pac-10 standings:

Team	Wins	Losses
Oregon	5	1
Arizona	4	1
Stanford	5	2
USC	4	2
Oregon State	4	2

With a single loss to USC, Oregon sits in the driver's seat a half game ahead of Arizona.  However, there's still a lot of football to play and we could be headed for a very interesting situation.  Let's take a look at each team's remaining schedule and their likely end-of-season standing.

Oregon

The Ducks have had an up-and-down season, getting pounded by Boise State to start the year, absolutely thrashing USC at home, and getting steamrolled by Stanford.  They currently sit at #11 in the TFG rankings with three games to play.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(11) Oregon	31	(57) Arizona St.	24	87.6
(26) Arizona	27	(11) Oregon	31	70.4
(11) Oregon	31	(24) Oregon St.	27	68.6

As it stands, Oregon is the favorite in each of their remaining games and very well could end the season at 8-1 in the Pac-10.  There's a 42.3% chance of this happening.  However, there's also a 43.1% chance that Oregon will win two of their remaining three games.  That would place them at 7-2 in the Pac-10, with the most likely two losses being to Stanford (in the books) and Oregon State.

Arizona

The Wildcats sit a half-game back of Oregon, but have a long road to the end of the year.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(49) California	27	(26) Arizona	31	61.3
(26) Arizona	27	(11) Oregon	31	70.4
(57) Arizona St.	24	(26) Arizona	31	71.2
(8) USC	31	(26) Arizona	24	77.6

Three of their last four games are on the road, and their lone home game is against Oregon.  They have only a 23.8% chance of going 4-0 to finish 8-1 in-conference.  As mentioned previously, it's likely that Oregon will beat Arizona, and even more likely that USC will beat Arizona for the last game of the season.  This would place Arizona at 6-3 in-conference and likely out of contention for a BCS bid.

Stanford

Stanford shocked Oregon last week, nearly doubling up the Ducks in their visit to the Bay Area.  That win propelled the Cardinal into third in the Pac-10, a half-game ahead of USC and a half-game behind Arizona.  However, the road gets difficult from here.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(8) USC	31	(32) Stanford	27	83.6
(32) Stanford	31	(49) California	27	60.9
(32) Stanford	31	(39) Notre Dame	28	54.7

Stanford will get a chance this weekend to prove if they're The Real Deal(tm) by going to USC to play the Trojans.  The odds don't look good, though, as they've got less than a 1-in-6 shot of pulling off the upset.  To be fair, last week they only had a 1-in-5 shot of defeating Oregon yet managed to pull off that upset in stunning fashion.  However at the time Oregon was still on a high from their USC victory and Stanford may have caught them napping.  I doubt they'll get lucky twice.  Even assuming a victory at USC -- which I won't assume here -- they'll have to defeat Cal in order to finish up the year at 7-2; current odds on that combo are 10.0%.  A more likely outcome is a 6-3 finish with a win over Cal and a loss at USC (50.9%) or even two losses (32.7%).

USC

Home		Visitors		Odds
(8) USC	31	(32) Stanford	27	83.6
(8) USC	31	(64) UCLA	17	91.1
(8) USC	31	(26) Arizona	24	77.6

The general consensus is that this year's USC is not the USC of recent history.  Sure, they've been in the top 10 for most of the year and have quality wins over (4) Ohio State and (24) Oregon State.  But there's that pesky "2" in the loss column, coming to lowly (69) Washington and (11) Oregon.  Of all the teams in the Pac-10, though, USC has the easiest road to the end of the season.  Three games at home, with a 59.1% chance of winning out and only a 34.4% chance of going 2-1.  Odds are USC recovers and finishes 7-2 in-conference.

Oregon State

Oregon State is currently tied for fourth with USC, although is technically behind them since USC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.  OSU has a relatively easy road to the end of the season ... with one exception.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(24) Oregon St.	38	(69) Washington	24	82.4
(117) Washington St.	17	(24) Oregon St.	38	97.5
(11) Oregon	31	(24) Oregon St.	27	68.6

Wins are likely against both UW and WSU (80.3%), leading to a season finale against Oregon.  This is where it gets interesting.  OSU is the underdog in this game, especially since it's on the road, but if they can pull off the upset -- as discussed in the Oregon section -- then OSU will win out and go 7-2 for the year.  At which point the Pac-10 standings will look like this:

Team	Wins	Losses
Oregon	7	2
USC	7	2
Oregon State	7	2
Arizona	6	3
Stanford	6	3

Arizona will hold the tiebreaker over Stanford thanks to the Wildcats' 43-38 victory over the Cardinal a few weeks ago. But the OSU-USC-Oregon situation will be more difficult to resolve.

• OSU will have defeated Oregon but lost to USC
• USC will have defeated OSU but lost to Oregon
• Oregon will have defeated USC but lost to OSU
  

If I'm reading the Pac-10 tiebreaker rules correctly, then it will come down to the result of each team's game against fourth-place Arizona.  Arizona defeated OSU but -- in our scenario -- will have lost to Oregon and USC.  This eliminates OSU from the picture, and we repeat the tiebreaker scenario with only USC and Oregon, which would result in a Rose Bowl bid for the Ducks.

Is this is going to happen, though, it'll happen one game at a time.  Namely, this weekend

• Oregon must defeat Arizona State
• USC must defeat Stanford
• Oregon State must defeat Washington

The current odds of all three happening are 60.3%.  We'll find out on Saturday evening if we're one step closer to breaking out the Pac-10 tiebreaker rulebook.