Pac-10: Less Crowded at the Top (for now)

Last week I presented a scenario in which we might see a three-way tie at the top of the Pac-10 with Oregon, Oregon State, and USC all knotted at 7-2.  That particular scenario didn't play out thanks to the sudden rise of Stanford, beating Oregon and USC on back-to-back weekends.  That should end the speculation about crazy tiebreakers, right?  This is now Oregon's Rose Bowl to lose ... right?

Apparently I wasn't thinking big enough.  Seattle Times sports columnist Bud Withers described an even more thorny scenario in which six teams lock horns at 6-3 at the end of conference play.  How, you may ask, does this conundrum develop?

We'll let Mr. Withers explain.

• Oregon (6-1) loses at Arizona (4-2) this week and Oregon State (5-2) Dec. 3 in Eugene.
• California (4-3) beats Stanford (6-2) and Washington.
• Arizona beats Arizona State.
• USC (4-3) beats UCLA and Arizona.
• OSU loses this week at Washington State (hey, we didn't say you wouldn't have to work with us a little).

There you have it.  But just how likely is this scenario?  For that we turn to the current Tempo-Free Gridiron projection for these teams.  The following table lists the home and away team with the predicted winner highlighted in blue, along with the odds of that pick being correct.

Home		Visitors		Odds
(31) Arizona	27	(10) Oregon	31	71.0
(24) Stanford	35	(44) California	31	64.6
(118) Washington St.	17	(25) Oregon St.	38	97.9
(58) Arizona St.	24	(31) Arizona	27	70.7
(11) USC	31	(56) UCLA	20	84.1
(10) Oregon	31	(25) Oregon St.	27	67.8
(11) USC	31	(31) Arizona	24	69.3
(72) Washington	27	(44) California	31	70.0

Let's look at each game and the odds of this Doomsday-Six-Way scenario.

"Oregon (6-1) loses at Arizona (4-2) this week and Oregon State (5-2) Dec. 3 in Eugene."

TFG has Oregon as the favorite in each game.  Arizona has a 29% chance of picking up the upset tomorrow and OSU has a 32.2% chance in two weeks.  Current Doomsday odds: 1-in-10.7.

California (4-3) beats Stanford (6-2) and Washington.

Stanford is almost a 2-to-1 favorite against the Golden Bears, but Cal is a 7-to-3 favorite against the Huskies.  Current Doomsday odds: 1-in-43.

Arizona beats Arizona State.

This gets us back on the right side of the odds, with the Wildcats as 70.7% favorites.  Current Doomsday odds: 1-in-61.

USC beats UCLA and Arizona.

Until recently USC looked USC-esque.  Maybe not as much swagger or punch, but still the clear favorites to play in another Rose Bowl.  They're still the favorites against UCLA (84.1%) and Arizona (69.3%) but the chinks in the armor have been exposed and opponents know what to target.  Still, for the moment we'll assume those numbers are accurate.  Current Doomsday odds: 1-in-105.

OSU loses at Washington State.

This is where the Doomsday scenario takes its biggest hit.  OSU are 97.9% favorites this weekend, meaning WSU has less than a 1-in-47 chance of contributing to the mix.  Current Doomsday odds: 1-in-4995.

So, there it is.  There's no chance of this happening, right?  Well ... not necessarily.  Even the most likely scenario, in which all favorites win out and Oregon claims the title outright, currently sits at around 1-in-12.  Stanford alone has managed upsets against 1-in-5 (Oregon) and 1-in-6 (USC) odds over the last few weeks, which by themselves were less likely than all the favorites winning out.  Either way, 24 hours from now we'll know just how much closer we are to the potential Doomsday scenario.