Alabama (8-0, #3 BCS, #5 TFG, 0.953 WPct, 0.572 SoS)
Alabama has had a solid season against good opponents, including (11) Virginia Tech and (23) Mississippi. After that the quality of opponent drops off a bit, including (41) Arkansas, (50) South Carolina, and (51) Kentucky. After last week's break, Alabama won't have to worry too much about strength of schedule the rest of the way.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (5) Alabama | 17 | (12) LSU | 7 | 81.7 |
| (49) Mississippi St. | 17 | (5) Alabama | 24 | 89.4 |
| (29) Auburn | 17 | (5) Alabama | 24 | 84.8 |
Even with games against (12) LSU and (29) Auburn, Alabama has a 62% chance of finishing the year undefeated. However the odds say that Alabama also has the potential to trip up in games against LSU or Auburn (Mississippi State should be less of an issue). Their prize for finishing up undefeated? All signs point to an SEC championship game against Florida. More on that later.
Texas (#2 BCS, #3 TFG, 0.965 WPct, 0.583 SoS)
Texas has been impressive all season long, putting up double-digit wins on all opponents except for (8) Oklahoma. That streak looks to continue for the rest of the season as Texas isn't going to face an opponent in the top 35 for the rest of the year, with their biggest challenge likely to be when (40) Kansas comes to visit.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (3) Texas | 31 | (67) UCF | 14 | 98.0 |
| (80) Baylor | 17 | (3) Texas | 31 | 97.3 |
| (3) Texas | 38 | (40) Kansas | 24 | 95.7 |
| (53) Texas A&M | 17 | (3) Texas | 31 | 93.3 |
Even with four games remaining, Texas has an 85% chance of going undefeated going into the Big 12 championship game. Right now their opponent is likely to be (54) Kansas State, who don't exactly pose a big threat to an undefeated pre-bowl season for the Longhorns. Of all the teams in college football today, Texas looks to be the most likely to secure a BCS National Championship invitation. Which brings us to ...
Florida (#1 BCS, #1 TFG, 0.972 WPct, 0.680 SoS)
Florida is currently the #1 team in the country across the polls -- including the TFG rankings -- and there doesn't seem to be a viable obstacle in Florida's path to the National Championship game until the SEC Championship. A likely matchup with Alabama would give the Gators a run for their money, but with that exception Florida isn't likely to be challenged by anyone on their remaining schedule except Florida State. And I use the word "challenged" very loosely.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Florida | 40 | (89) Vanderbilt | 16 | 99.3 |
| (50) South Carolina | 17 | (1) Florida | 24 | 93.9 |
| (1) Florida | 46 | (106) FIU | 17 | 99.6 |
| (1) Florida | 38 | (38) Florida St. | 24 | 96.4 |
Florida has a 90% chance of entering the SEC Championship game undefeated. That's where it gets tricky for both Florida and Alabama, assuming that's the matchup (currently that's a 55% probable outcome of this season). Assuming their winning percentages don't change and we consider Atlanta to be a neutral field, Florida is 63% likely to emerge as the winner. Obviously should Alabama lose and end up not going to the SEC title game, it's likely that Florida's odds of making it to the National Championship game increase as they would have a weaker opponent in the SEC title game. In fact the team Florida would be most likely to see in that game other than Alabama would be an LSU squad they've already defeated this year.
So there you have it. As it stands the most likely National Championship game would pit undefeated Florida against undefeated Texas. Although even this likely scenario has only roughly a 1-in-4 shot of happening. This weekend will see crucial games for the SEC contenders, and next weekend we'll see if Iowa is for real or not. Expect the championship picture to be much clearer on the evening of November 14th.
