Games To Watch
(25) Oregon State at (39) California. This has the potential to be a fast game (around 174 plays) with OK but not excellent defenses. Oregon State has a similar offensive efficiency as Iowa, they just need to step it up on the defensive side. California will have the home-field advantage, pushing their defense into West Virginia territory and essentially equivalent to Oregon State. They'll need to step it up on offense to keep up with Oregon State. Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame. These are two teams headed in opposite directions in the rankings. Two weeks ago Notre Dame was in the top 25 and Navy was struggling to stay in the top 40. Now Notre Dame is only the favorite by virtue of being the home team, hanging their hats on their defensive rating of 15.6. Navy has a solid offense, though, with an efficiency similar to that of Alabama (24.2). Notre Dame are 11-point favorites, but I see this game being much closer, with the Fighting Irish having only a 60.2% chance of pulling off the victory. I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa. Houston currently sits at #15 in the BCS polls, but I don't believe that and neither do the oddsmakers; they're currently split on this game, and for good reason. Houston has all the defensive abilities of Michigan and the offensive firepower of Nevada. If that doesn't sound like a top 15 BCS team then ... well, it shouldn't. Houston has racked up some impressive wins against less-than-impressive opposition. Tulsa has done more of the same, playing an even weaker slate than Houston. They don't have the offensive weapons that Houston does, but has a reasonable defense. The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game. The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii. Not exactly Penn State/Ohio State, but this one should be much closer. Hawaii is the 50.9-49.1 favorite in this one. The numbers say Hawaii, but your guess is as good as mine.
The Bottom Line
The numbers say they should get 40 of the 52 games this week correct for a 76.9% accuracy rate. They've started out 1-for-2, getting UCF over Marshall but missing Buffalo-Bowling Green. Full predictions after the jump.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Carolina | 17 | Virginia Tech | 24 | 84.9 |
| Northern Ill. | 31 | Eastern Michigan | 24 | 94.6 |
| Temple | 24 | Miami-OH | 17 | 94.2 |
| LA Tech | 14 | Boise St. | 24 | 97.0 |
| Akron | 17 | Kent St. | 24 | 57.1 |
| Alabama | 17 | LSU | 7 | 81.7 |
| UAB | 31 | FL-Atlantic | 24 | 65.7 |
| Arizona St. | 17 | USC | 24 | 88.9 |
| Arizona | 31 | Washington St. | 17 | 98.2 |
| Arkansas St. | 24 | LA-Lafayette | 17 | 86.5 |
| Arkansas | 24 | South Carolina | 17 | 67.1 |
| California | 31 | Oregon St. | 24 | 52.2 |
| UCLA | 24 | Washington | 17 | 66.7 |
| Cincinnati | 24 | Connecticut | 17 | 87.5 |
| Clemson | 24 | Florida St. | 17 | 82.0 |
| Colorado | 24 | Texas A&M | 31 | 59.5 |
| Florida | 40 | Vanderbilt | 16 | 99.3 |
| Georgia Tech | 24 | Wake Forest | 17 | 86.1 |
| Hawaii | 31 | Utah St. | 24 | 50.9 |
| Idaho | 24 | Fresno St. | 31 | 79.4 |
| Indiana | 17 | Wisconsin | 24 | 82.5 |
| Iowa St. | 17 | Oklahoma St. | 24 | 77.3 |
| Iowa | 24 | Northwestern | 17 | 94.2 |
| Kansas St. | 24 | Kansas | 31 | 51.3 |
| Miami-FL | 17 | Virginia | 14 | 70.3 |
| Michigan St. | 24 | Western Michigan | 17 | 89.3 |
| Michigan | 31 | Purdue | 24 | 55.3 |
| Middle Tenn. | 24 | FIU | 17 | 72.4 |
| Minnesota | 24 | Illinois | 17 | 74.9 |
| Missouri | 24 | Baylor | 17 | 87.8 |
| North Carolina | 17 | Duke | 7 | 73.6 |
| Nebraska | 17 | Oklahoma | 24 | 62.8 |
| UNLV | 24 | Colorado St. | 31 | 57.9 |
| North Carolina St. | 24 | Maryland | 17 | 72.4 |
| North Texas | 24 | LA-Monroe | 31 | 57.5 |
| Notre Dame | 31 | Navy | 24 | 60.2 |
| Penn State | 24 | Ohio St. | 17 | 58.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 24 | Syracuse | 17 | 95.1 |
| SDSU | 14 | TCU | 24 | 99.0 |
| SMU | 31 | Rice | 24 | 88.0 |
| Stanford | 17 | Oregon | 24 | 80.0 |
| Tennessee | 24 | Memphis | 17 | 96.7 |
| Texas | 31 | UCF | 14 | 98.0 |
| Tulane | 17 | UTEP | 24 | 90.1 |
| Tulsa | 31 | Houston | 24 | 51.0 |
| Air Force | 24 | Army | 14 | 96.6 |
| Utah | 31 | New Mexico | 14 | 98.6 |
| West Virginia | 24 | Louisville | 17 | 89.1 |
| WESTERN KY. | 24 | Troy | 38 | 93.1 |
| Wyoming | 17 | BYU | 24 | 86.9 |
| SJSU | 24 | Nevada | 31 | 73.1 |
