Games To Watch
(23) Miami-FL at (38) North Carolina. The numbers give an edge to "The U" but not by much: 57-43. UNC is 2-1 in their recent games, including a narrow loss to (35) Florida State and a solid win on the road at (10) Virginia Tech. Miami, on the other hand, is 2-1 with a home loss to (14) Clemson and a skin-of-their-teeth win to (60) Wake Forest. Their 52-17 demolition of UVa on the road is a bit deceptive, as UVa has been in a tailspin since mid-October. If North Carolina can keep Miami's offense in check they should be able to get their points.
(29) Auburn at (37) Georgia. Auburn is 3-3 since the start of October, with wins over I-AA Furman, a squeaker over (22) Tennessee, and a good win over (25) Mississippi. Georgia is 2-3 in that same stretch with wins over I-AA Tennessee Tech and (94) Vanderbilt. Their losses, though, have been to (12) LSU, and on the road at (22) Tennessee and (1) Florida. The law of "common opponents" says Auburn wins this one in a walk, but my numbers say this is anyone's game.
(26) Arizona at (49) California. This is one that could have important implications for the Pac-10, an issue that I'll cover in a later post. Arizona and Cal have similar defensive ratings (15.4 and 16.1) so it'll come down to offensive production. Arizona's offense has been much more efficient, rating 22.1 to Cal's 18.2, good for about 6 points per game. Both play at a similar pace, so this is going to come down to one of two things: can Cal dig up some extra defense or can their offense find an extra gear to outscore Arizona?
Coin Toss Game of the Week
(15) Texas Tech at (21) Oklahoma State. This one falls under the category of both "Games to Watch" and "Coin Toss Game of the Week". This is another 50.2-49.8 game with Texas Tech taking the slight edge. Oklahoma State hasn't fared well against high-powered offenses, with TTU tipping the scales at an efficiency of 28.0, good for third in the nation behind Texas (29.4) and Florida (30.7). The TTU defense is another issue; think of TTU as the Texas offense combined with Vanderbilt's defense. The OSU defense is good but not excellent, so much of their hope rides on being able to get a boost from their fans at home. If they can slow down TTU's offense they'll have a shot. Otherwise they risk getting completely blown out. The CTGotW games have been anything but close, so we'll see if I junxed this one.
Full predictions after the jump. The odds say I get 42 of these 57 right for a 73.4% accuracy rate. I'm already 1-1 so far, as Ohio's FG with 1:25 left in the game ruined my perfect week.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (86) Buffalo | 24 | (79) Ohio | 17 | 52.3 |
| (58) Central Michigan | 24 | (104) Toledo | 17 | 86.1 |
| (111) Miami-OH | 17 | (75) Bowling Green | 24 | 74.5 |
| (52) Northern Ill. | 31 | (96) Ball St. | 17 | 85.1 |
| (42) Rutgers | 24 | (48) South Florida | 17 | 64.9 |
| (105) Akron | 17 | (78) Temple | 24 | 64.6 |
| (16) Cincinnati | 24 | (31) West Virginia | 17 | 73.4 |
| (36) Arkansas | 24 | (63) Troy | 17 | 76.3 |
| (74) Baylor | 17 | (2) Texas | 31 | 96.0 |
| (7) Boise St. | 46 | (90) Idaho | 23 | 97.6 |
| (49) California | 17 | (26) Arizona | 24 | 55.9 |
| (72) UCF | 17 | (44) Houston | 24 | 60.8 |
| (71) Duke | 17 | (27) Georgia Tech | 31 | 70.9 |
| (116) Eastern Michigan | 17 | (100) Western Michigan | 24 | 69.9 |
| (108) FL-Atlantic | 24 | (89) Arkansas St. | 31 | 58.4 |
| (106) FIU | 31 | (114) North Texas | 24 | 72.4 |
| (37) Georgia | 31 | (29) Auburn | 24 | 55.3 |
| (95) Hawaii | 24 | (119) New Mexico St. | 17 | 92.6 |
| (77) Illinois | 24 | (70) Northwestern | 17 | 56.0 |
| (81) Iowa St. | 24 | (76) Colorado | 17 | 55.3 |
| (54) Kansas St. | 31 | (43) Missouri | 24 | 51.4 |
| (46) Kansas | 17 | (13) Nebraska | 24 | 70.6 |
| (12) LSU | 31 | (68) LA Tech | 17 | 91.8 |
| (80) Louisville | 24 | (97) Syracuse | 17 | 72.4 |
| (82) Marshall | 17 | (61) Southern Miss. | 24 | 56.0 |
| (88) Maryland | 17 | (10) Virginia Tech | 31 | 92.3 |
| (102) Memphis | 31 | (92) UAB | 24 | 54.6 |
| (84) Middle Tenn. | 31 | (110) LA-Lafayette | 17 | 81.8 |
| (45) Mississippi St. | 17 | (5) Alabama | 24 | 87.1 |
| (25) Mississippi | 24 | (22) Tennessee | 17 | 57.4 |
| (38) North Carolina | 17 | (23) Miami-FL | 24 | 51.5 |
| (67) Nevada | 24 | (47) Fresno St. | 31 | 55.2 |
| (115) New Mexico | 17 | (18) BYU | 31 | 95.5 |
| (73) North Carolina St. | 17 | (14) Clemson | 31 | 83.7 |
| (91) LA-Monroe | 31 | (NA) WESTERN KY. | 17 | 88.6 |
| (4) Ohio St. | 24 | (17) Iowa | 17 | 86.6 |
| (21) Oklahoma St. | 24 | (15) Texas Tech | 31 | 50.2 |
| (6) Oklahoma | 24 | (51) Texas A&M | 17 | 93.1 |
| (24) Oregon St. | 24 | (69) Washington | 17 | 85.4 |
| (11) Oregon | 31 | (57) Arizona St. | 17 | 89.8 |
| (9) Penn State | 24 | (83) Indiana | 17 | 96.3 |
| (19) Pittsburgh | 31 | (39) Notre Dame | 17 | 74.9 |
| (56) Purdue | 17 | (40) Michigan St. | 24 | 52.0 |
| (113) Rice | 24 | (118) Tulane | 17 | 77.5 |
| (103) SDSU | 24 | (109) Wyoming | 17 | 71.9 |
| (55) South Carolina | 14 | (1) Florida | 31 | 94.0 |
| (8) USC | 31 | (32) Stanford | 17 | 86.4 |
| (85) SMU | 31 | (101) UTEP | 24 | 69.2 |
| (3) TCU | 24 | (20) Utah | 17 | 90.5 |
| (28) Air Force | 31 | (99) UNLV | 17 | 92.5 |
| (93) Utah St. | 24 | (107) SJSU | 17 | 72.3 |
| (94) Vanderbilt | 17 | (50) Kentucky | 24 | 73.6 |
| (53) Virginia | 17 | (34) Boston College | 24 | 53.9 |
| (60) Wake Forest | 17 | (35) Florida St. | 24 | 56.8 |
| (117) Washington St. | 17 | (64) UCLA | 24 | 89.0 |
| (30) Wisconsin | 31 | (65) Michigan | 17 | 80.0 |
| (59) Tulsa | 24 | (66) East Carolina | 17 | 64.3 |
