Overall it was a good week for Justin's Tempo-Free Gridiron numbers, going 42-10 for an 80.8% accuracy rate. Eddie's RBA predictions did well but missed a few close games -- UNC/BC, Army/North Texas, and UConn/Notre Dame -- resulting in a 39-13 record (75.0%) this week.
Part of this accuracy was due to the lack of notable upsets. The two biggest upsets according to both TFG and RBA numbers were Northwestern over Wisconsin and Syracuse over Rutgers. Ole Miss over LSU was the "upset" that everyone's talking about, but neither of our systems gave LSU better than a 63% chance of winning; even the oddsmakers were backing Ole Miss this time around, meaning it would be a stretch to call that a true upset.
Games to Watch
Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers.
Justin said: Barring a big turnaround, expect Purdue to score late and pull out a close victory.
Eddie said: Expect a late Purdue turnover to send the Old Oaken Bucket back to Bloomington with a Hoosiers' 32-31 victory.
What happened: Indiana dominated in yards gained (462-329), first downs (23-15), and plays (75-62). But throw in two missed field goals, a fumble at their own 19 to start the game, and a quick Purdue start, and you have an Indiana team that's down 21-0 in the second quarter. Combine that with an uncharacteristically turnover-free Purdue team and the Hoosiers' four turnovers, and you have the Boilermakers in a walk.
LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels.
Eddie said: For all their faults, LSU plays sound defense and doesn't turn the ball over, so they pull of a close win in Oxford, 18-17.
Justin said: LSU has the slight edge on defense that will be the deciding factor. Expect this one to go to the wire with LSU emerging as 27-24 victors.
What happened: By now most people have heard about LSU's clock management issues at the end of this game. In the post-game press conference, LSU coach Les Miles claims he doesn't know who told his quarterback to spike the ball. However the Fan IQ blog suggests Coach Miles may want to watch this video in the hopes he can identify the man in the LSU windbreaker making a "spike the ball" motion towards his QB (fun starts at the 1:20 mark). Apparently you can model points, yards, and turnovers, but not stupid. Had the Tigers managed to make the FG they would have emerged 26-25 victors; as it stands they fall further in the SEC standings with their 25-23 loss.
The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of The Week
Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Justin said: Expect Oklahoma to get enough offense in bits and pieces to put away Texas Tech, 35-31.
Eddie said: Oklahoma's defense may slow Tech down, but home field advantage tips the game in favor of the Red Raiders, 27-24.
What happened: This one wasn't even close, and Justin gets the wear the dunce cap for this week. Oklahoma took a 6-3 lead at the start of the second quarter, before the Red Raiders methodically dumped 31 unanswered points on the Sooner's defense. Oklahoma scored their only touchdown in garbage time, and TTU hung another 7 on them in response.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
North Carolina Tar Heels at Boston College Eagles.
Eddie said: RBA says 21-20 Boston College.
Justin said: The law of common opponents, the tempo-free numbers and my gut all tell me UNC pulls this one out. Final score: 24-20.
What happened: UNC is a team on the rise. After beating Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and Miami-FL in Chapel Hill, Boston College presented even less of a challenge. UNC scores on two of BCs first three possession (you read that correctly) to go up 21-0 before 10 minutes had passed. The rest of the game was pretty much cruise control as BC never really threatened UNC the rest of the way. Yet another CTGotW that was anything but close.
