Week 13: BCS Picture, Part I

The last time we looked in at the race for the National Title game (parts one and two) we examined each of the seven undefeated teams.  At the time the TFG numbers were bullish on Florida, Texas, Alabama, TCU, and Boise State, with questions about Iowa and Cincinnati.  Iowa has since dropped not one but two games and is highly unlikely to get an at-large bid.  Let's examine each of the five BCS bowl games, the likely participants, and the projected results.

BCS Title Game

Conventional wisdom says we're set to see a Florida/Texas title game, and TFG won't argue with that.  Florida is a 93.5% favorite over Florida State this weekend with a projected final score of 38-24.  Following that is the SEC title game against Alabama, in which the Gators are 59.4% favorites.  This is the most likely scenario, currently sitting at 55.5%.  The second-most likely scenario is Alabama defeats Auburn and Florida to earn their ticket to the title game (36.6%).  The only chances of seeing neither Florida nor Alabama on January 7th are

• Florida loses to Florida State and defeats Alabama
• Alabama loses to Auburn and defeats Florida
• Florida loses to Florida State AND Alabama loses to Auburn

Collectively these sit somewhere in the 1-in-12 category.  Texas, on the other hand, has a much smoother ride to an undefeated season.  TFG pegs them as 17-point favorites over A&M on Thursday and 9-point favorites over Nebraska in the Big XII title game.  If I were the Longhorns I'd be cheering for Florida State and Alabama over the next few weeks and here's why.

Longhorns			Opponent			Odds
(2)	Texas	31	(1)	Florida	32	56.7
(2)	Texas	31	(4)	Alabama	28	52.8

Either way it would be a close game, but there's a 4-point swing and a 9% shift in the odds.  Granted, Alabama's stats would improve if they defeat Florida, but as it stands the Longhorns would rather match up against the Tide instead of the Gators.

Orange Bowl

The Orangle Bowl will pit the ACC champion against an at-large BCS selection.  Since the Orange Bowl gets first pick amongst the "best of the rest", conventional wisdom says that undefeated Georgia Tech will host TCU on January 5th.  First, however, Tech has to win the ACC championship game against Clemson.  Tech already defeated the Tigers in Atlanta at the start of the season, 30-27 on a last-minute field goal.  Clemson has dropped two games since then: a stunner to Maryland, and a 14-10 home loss to TCU.

TFG numbers, however, currently list the Tigers as a 33-32 favorite over the Yellow Jackets.  Should Clemson defy conventional wisdom and win a trip to Miami, they earn the right to a rematch against the Horned Frogs.  While TCU would be the clear favorite in such a rematch they have reason to be worried; the Tigers held TCU to their lowest point total all season.  Only Clemson and Air Force have held TCU below 30 points all year.  But what does TFG tell us to expect in these matchups?

Horned Frogs			Opponent			Odds
(3)	TCU	36	(22)	Georgia Tech	30	86.1
(3)	TCU	32	(16)	Clemson	25	82.0

Either ACC team will have an uphill battle.  Compared to Tech, Clemson has the superior defense and would hope to keep TCU within striking distance. The Yellow Jackets will follow their usual formula and try to outgun the opposition. All signs point to another mid-major upset of a Big Six conference champion.

Tomorrow:  Projecting the Fiesta, Sugar, and Rose Bowls.