2009 Bowl Previews: Part XII

Today is the final installment in our 2009-2010 Bowl Preview series.  This game scores high on both competition and quality metric.  Not only is it the only bowl to score above 80, but it pegs the CQR meter into the mid-90s.  By comparison, the SEC title game would have scored a 90.6 on the CQR meter thanks to TFG's low estimation (at the time) of Alabama and its 2-to-1 favoring of the Gators over the Crimson Tide.

#1: BCS Championship
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns (95.2 CQR)
Eddie:  In the RBA consolation game, we present the BCS #1 and BCS #2 teams.  (3) Alabama beat Florida to clinch the SEC and knocked off Virginia Tech along the way in non-conference action, both of which are impressive wins.  However, they also needed two blocked kicks against Tennessee and a last-minute comeback to beat Auburn.  (4) Texas hails from the Big XII, which is still living off last year's credibility, and has had trouble dispatching Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Nebraska.  In fact, they're really lucky to have even won their conference.  In this game, we match two of the best defenses in the country.  RBA pegs Texas's opponent-adjusted defense at 7.3 PPH versus Alabama's 10.3 PPH.  Although Texas is considered to be the more offensively-minded team, Alabama is actually more efficient, posting a methodical 11.6 PPH against Texas's 9.3 PPH.  This statistic, coupled with Alabama's 0.94 turnover per game advantage swings the game in favor of the Crimson Tide, 18-17, with 52.9% confidence.
Justin: In an odd moment you "You're-right-but-you're-wrong", both Eddie and I agree that Alabama and Texas are, respectively, the third- and forth-best teams in college football this year but disagree on who will win.  It's only my lower estimation of Boise State that prevents the Fiesta Bowl from taking the top spot in our bowl preview.  Both teams are good on both sides of the ball, but (3) Alabama has made it here thanks to their 2nd-ranked defense (8.6 PPH) whereas Texas is here thanks to their up-tempo offense (28.4 PPH).  From here on out it's bad news for Texas, though.  The Longhorns are tied atop the offensive efficiency standings, but their companions are the (1) Florida Gators who had no answer for the Crimson Tide defense.  Texas just barely snuck past (14) Nebraska in the Big XII title game, and the Crimson Tide's defense is a full 1.8 PPH better than the Cornhusker unit that held Texas to 13 points.  The only other team to hold the Longhorns below 35 points this year?  (6) Oklahoma, who lost a narrow 16-13 game to Texas at the start of the year.  The Sooners have also been doing it with defense, rating a defensive efficiency of 9.2 PPH.  Expect Texas to try and make this an up-tempo, offense-oriented game.  Expect Alabama to shut down those hopes and take home the BCS title, 31-27.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(3)	Alabama	31	(4)	Texas	27	55.9	(3)	Alabama	17	(4)	Texas	18	52.9

2009 Bowl Previews: Part XI

Today we present the next-to-last installment in our 2009 Bowl Preview series.

#4: Champs Sports Bowl
Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers (77.2 CQR)
Justin: Statistically speaking, the (20) Miami Hurricanes were the second-best team in the ACC, just a slight step ahead of ACC championship contenders (21) Georgia Tech and (22) Clemson.  The Hurricanes played the 13th-toughest schedule in FBS and the 3rd-most difficult behind (63) Virginia and (44) Florida State.  They fared well, racking up a respectable 21.5 PPH on offense and 14.2 PPH on defense.  The (31) Badgers are about 1.0 PPH adrift on both counts, but against much more average competition.  The gap between 20th and 31st, however, is a slim 0.050 in expected winning percentage, so this should be a close game.  Good but not great defense matched up against stronger offenses on both sides means this should be an uptempo scoring parade, with the Hurricanes prevailing 31-28.  TFG expects this to be closer than the score predicts, with the Hurricanes only having a 56.8% change of winning.
Eddie: Although they've lost only three games, (27) Wisconsin sits behind a bevy of four and five loss teams because they have an absolutely absurd drop-off against good teams.  The Badgers' offense has a slope of 47.7 PPH (!) across all opponent strengths. Their defense is pretty good, but it's hard to overcome that type of offensive inconsistency.  What this means is that Wisconsin beats the teams that it is supposed to beat and loses to quality opponents.  Unfortunately for the Badgers, (20) Miami is actually pretty good, overachieving in a year when many thought Randy Shannon would be canned mid-season.  Miami should score 15.6 PPH versus Wisconsin's 13.9 PPH, and Wisconsin's 0.45 takeaways per game advantage just isn't enough to overcome that deficit.  RBA has this one as a Miami victory at 24-21 with 50.4% confidence.

#3: Fiesta Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs TCU Horned Frogs (78.0 CQR)
Eddie:  Here's your RBA national championship game, folks.  Before picking this game, allow me to state my biases.  I saw Boise State in person in 2002 during one of their 12-1 seasons.  My Razorbacks absolutely flattened the Broncos in Fayetteville, 41-14, with all their points in garbage time, to give them their lone loss.  Thanks to the epic butt-whooping Boise received that night, I have never really believed that mid-majors deserved a place at the table... until now.  I truly believe these two teams are the best in the country.  Offensively, (1) TCU and (2) Boise State are consistently effective, losing only 16.6 PPH and 10.9 PPH across all opponent strengths.  That sounds like a lot, but compared to Alabama's 25.2 PPH, Texas's 39.0 PPH, Florida's 26.1 PPH, and Oregon's 32.0 PPH, that's pretty consistent.  The big difference between these two teams is TCU's defense, expecting only 10.3 PPH compared to Boise's 17.1 PPH.  Neither team's defense is going to dominate simply because their offenses are so good.  However, TCU's defense gives them an overall 17.5 PPH to 16.6 PPH advantage over Boise State.  TCU turns the ball over 0.64 more times per game, so Boise has a decent shot in this one.  However, if both teams play up to their own standards, TCU wins this one, 31-28, with only 51.6% confidence.  People will say that TCU's and Boise's defenses are frauds and that Alabama or Texas would shut either team down.  Neither RBA or I believe that would really happen, and neither should you.
Justin: This has widely been hailed as the Plessey v. Ferguson Bowl, in which the Fiesta Bowl organizers bit the bullet and hosted both (2) TCU and (9) Boise State in an attempt to prevent non-BCS conference members from going 5-1 in BCS bowls.  TFG thinks it was more likely that the (1) Florida Gators would have defeated likely opponent Boise State in the Sugar Bowl, while (2) TCU would have destroyed (21) Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.  TCU has been a monster on the field, combining the 6th-ranked offense (25.7 PPH) with the 3rd-ranked defense (8.7 PPH).  They've had to do it against sub-par competition, but has dominated (32) Air Force, (22) Clemson, (19) BYU, and (16) Utah.  For those keeping track at home, that's three bowl winners who have fallen to TCU with Air Force scheduled to play on December 31st.  Boise State has been good, with a +0.2 PPH margin on offense over TCU, but an unfortunate +3.3 PPH on defense.  This will be a good game, but expect TCU to continue their domination with a 31-27 win and finish the season 13-0 and a legitimate argument for an AP National Title.

#2: Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Iowa Hawkeyes (79.6 CQR)
Justin: TFG isn't quite as bullish on either (13) Iowa or (21) Georgia Tech as Eddie's RBA, but this expects to be a good game.  I admit that TFG has, to an extent, underestimated the ability of defenses to stop Georgia Tech's offense.  That says a lot considering that they possess the 3rd-ranked offense in FBS with 26.5 PPH.  Iowa, however, is a much better defensive matchup for the Yellow Jackets, limiting opponents to a stingy 10.9 PPH.  The issue with the Hawkeyes, though, is the same as it has been all season: offense.  They're one of only two teams in the TFG top 25 with an offensive efficiency in the teens (the other being Nebraska) at 19.7 PPH.  Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, Georgia Tech sees their defense as an impediment to their offense getting on the field to score touchdowns, so the normally-anemic Iowa offense has a chance to put up some big points.  Enough points, in fact, for TFG to label them as the favorites in the Orange Bowl.  Iowa's defense comes up with some big stops and brings home the 31-27 victory.
Eddie: I find this game particularly intriguing because it matches (6) Iowa's excellent defense against (14) Georgia Tech's flexbone.  Iowa averages 2.55 takeaways per game and should expect a defensive efficiency of 8.7 PPH against the Yellow Jackets.  On the other side of the coin, you have the Georgia Tech running game that should put up 14.2 PPH against Iowa.  While the matchup between Iowa's defense and Georgia Tech's offense is the glamourous matchup, the more relevant matchup is on the opposite side of the ball because Iowa's offense and Georgia Tech's defense have both been spotty at times.  Iowa gets Ricky Stanzi back for the bowl game, so expect a little more consistency from Iowa.  RBA doesn't know about that, but it knows that Iowa managed enough offense against its good opponents (Penn State and Ohio State) that they should be able to beat the Yellow Jackets 24-21 with 50.9% confidence in a very run-dominated game.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(20)	Miami-FL	31	(31)	Wisconsin	28	56.8	(20)	Miami-FL	24	(27)	Wisconsin	21	50.4
(9)	Boise St.	27	(2)	TCU	31	70.0	(2)	Boise St.	28	(1)	TCU	31	51.6
(21)	Georgia Tech	27	(13)	Iowa	31	63.7	(13)	Georgia Tech	17	(6)	Iowa	24	50.9

2009 Bowl Previews: Part X

(We covered the #9 Meineke Bowl in Part VIII of our preview.  We covered the #7 Las Vegas Bowl in Part V of our preview.)

Today's bowls represent a huge jump in both competitiveness and quality of the opponent.  From here on out we expect to see top 25 caliber teams playing close games with no clear favorites.

#8: Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (74.6 CQR)
Eddie:  (13) Nebraska is surprisingly good for a four-loss team because their defense is flat-out dominant.  RBA suggests that they would hold a 1.000 strength team to only 10.1 PPH, a claim backed up by a 13 point outing against (4) Texas, a 16 point outing against (9) Virginia Tech, and only three points against (22) Oklahoma.  Their offense is atrocious, but they don't need much.  (25) Arizona is significantly better offensively but not so much to overcome the Nebraska defense.  This game hinges on Nebraska's offense.  If they do well, Nebraska wins.  If not, Arizona walks away with the win.  RBA picks the former in a close Nebraska win, 21-20, with 51.8% confidence.
Justin: The 14th-ranked Cornhuskers have been one of those teams that is better than their record indicates.  Nebraska has been doing it with defense, thanks to the efforts of Ndamukong Suh.  Suh is largely responsible for the Husker's amazing 10.4 PPH defensive efficiency.  The other side of the ball is an issue, though, as their 18.7 PPH offensive efficiency is the worst in the TFG top 25.  The bad news for (26) Arizona is that while their offensive efficiency is slightly better than Nebraska's, their defense isn't in the same class (+3.4 PPH).  This will be a hard-fought, grind'em-out game with the Cornhuskers ultimately prevailing, 27-24.

#6: Rose Bowl
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks (75.3 CQR)
Justin: This is the first game in our countdown to feature two teams in the top 15.  (5) Ohio State has made their way to the top with the stingiest defense in college football, allowing a miserly 8.3 PPH and a moderate pace of 83.5 plays per half.  (12) Oregon, on the other hand, has the second-fastest game in FBS competition, combining their 92.9 plays per half with the 13th-most-efficient offense at 23.1 PPH.  It's the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.  TFG rules somewhat sternly in favor of the immovable object as Ohio State takes home the victory, 31-27.
Eddie: RBA reveals some interesting trends in this one.  Although (8) Ohio State is seen as the defensive team in this matchup, they aren't as different as you would expect in terms of efficiencies.  Ohio State has only a 2.9 PPH advantage over (11) Oregon.  The real difference appears when looking at turnovers; Ohio State commits 0.33 fewer turnovers and receives 0.75 more takeaways per game than Oregon.  As an added bonus, Ohio State commits fewer penalties.  In a game where the efficiencies match up fairly well, the turnovers and penalties make the difference, as Ohio State stops the bowl game bleeding in a 27-24 victory.

#5: Capital One Bowl
LSU Tigers vs Penn State Nittany Lions (77.2 CQR)
Eddie: (10) Penn State outmatches (17) LSU in virtually all facets, most notably with one of the best strength-of-opponent adjusted defenses in the country.  Penn State holds a 12.7 PPH to 10.2 PPH advantage in what should be a hard-hitting defensive game.  LSU has done a good job of limiting its mistakes with only 0.92 turnovers per game but is otherwise outclassed in all phases of the game.  If Penn State kicks the ball away from Trindon Holliday, they should win this low-scoring game, 21-17.
Justin: This one features two teams with similar stats in the key categories.  (7) Penn State and (15) LSU differ by only 1.5 PPH on offense, 1.5 PPH on defense, and 0.4 plays per half.  Unfortunately for LSU the offensive and defensive differences fall in Penn State's favor.  LSU is more battle-tested since Penn State has played a thoroughly average schedule and the TFG is impressed with the schedule of the Tigers.  On the whole, though, TFG pegs the Nittany Lions as nearly 2-to-1 favorites to win by a field goal in a deliberate and mostly defense-oriented game.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(26)	Arizona	24	(14)	Nebraska	27	65.8	(25)	Arizona	20	(14)	Nebraska	21	51.7
(5)	Ohio St.	31	(12)	Oregon	27	70.7	(8)	Ohio St.	27	(11)	Oregon	24	52.3
(15)	LSU	21	(7)	Penn State	24	64.7	(17)	LSU	17	(10)	Penn State	21	55.0

2009 Bowl Previews: Part IX

The theme today is "No, You're An Idiot" as Eddie and I disagree on all three games.  Today we finally crack the top 10, examine a potentially-overrated BCS matchup, and disagree over the fall of a former top 15 team.  [Editor's note:  Eddie apologizes for the late post.  He's traveling across the country.  Maybe you've heard how difficult that is these days.]

#12: Armed Forces Bowl
Houston Cougars vs Air Force Falcons (69.3 CQR)
Justin: The 39th-ranked Cougars got a reputation for having a high-flying offense, but a large part of that is due to having the fastest pace in the FBS division at a blazing 94.5 plays per half.  Their offensive efficiency can best be described as "slightly above average" at 21.9 PPH, but their defense allows 17.9 PPH which allows opponents to stay in the game far longer than necessary.  (32) Air Force is the mirror image of the Cougars: average pace, stingy defense, and a slow offense.  The Falcon's 15th-ranked defense will be the toughest challenge for Houston to date, and TFG thinks it'll be enough to slow down their high-octane pace: Air Force by a field goal, but only with 56.5% confidence.
Eddie:  Sure, (28) Houston makes its reputation by playing fast.  However, they are still much better at offense than (41) Air Force.  When adjusted for opponent strength, we expect Houston to outpace Air Force with 16.6 PPH compared to 13.9 PPH.  This game will be pretty close because Air Force holds a 0.58 turnover per game advantage, and they play slow, minimizing the Cougars' advantage.  However, Houston pulls this one out, 28-24 with 62.7% confidence.

#11: Sugar Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Florida Gators (69.4 CQR)
Eddie: RBA doesn't know that (5) Cincinnati lost its head coach and offensive coordinator, leaving the team emotionally depleted, so I'm ready to write this pick off.  Prior to those events, RBA ranks Cincinnati highly because they (a) are undefeated, elevating their team strength, (b) do not commit turnovers with regularity, and (c) have a consistent and powerful offense.  (7) Florida has a very hefty drop-off on both sides of the ball against better competition; this is the same team blown out by Alabama and taken to the limit by Arkansas and Mississippi State.  TFG says Florida's offensive and defensive efficiencies are 28.4 PPH and 9.4 PPH, respectively.  However, if you adjust them for opponent quality, they degrade to 15.9 PPH and 16.9 PPH against Cincinnati.  I'm not saying that Cincinnati is going to win this one with all their coaching turnover, but if they play like they have all season, they should.
Justin: On BCS paper this seems like quite possibly the second-best matchup.  BCS #4 Cincinnati versus BCS #5 Florida.  TFG, however, isn't big on the 17th-ranked Bearcats and that was before Brian Kelly decided he was leaving.  Even after their manhandling by (3) Alabama, TFG still has Florida as the top team in the land, a ranking I explored in some detail two weeks ago.  Giving up a net of nearly 11 PPH (6.0 on offense, 4.8 on defense) TFG doesn't expect this to be much of a game.  Florida are 5-to-1 favorites to win by 11 in the least competitive game this bowl season.

#10: Cotton Bowl
Mississippi Rebels vs Oklahoma State Cowboys (72.4 CQR)
Justin: In one of the six bowls where TFG and RBA disagree, TFG gives a slight nod to (23) Mississippi over (33) Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys were ranked in the top 10 early in the season but failed to deliver, playing only slightly above-average offense (21.0 PPH) and defense (15.7 PPH).  Mississippi fared slightly better at 21.2 PPH and 14.6 PPH.  Both teams played tough schedules and should be ready come January 2nd.  I know Eddie isn't a big Houston Nutt fan, but this game looks to be close with the Rebels as 55.3% favorites to pull off the 4-point victory.
Eddie:  (37) Mississippi commits turnovers in droves, averaging 2.3 per game, and supplements a consistently strong defense with a wildly erratic offense, depending on whether they decide to give Dexter McCluster the ball or not.  (31) Oklahoma State has been similarly unimpressive, largely due to injuries and retarded NCAA enforcement officers, but their defense is very opportunistic, averaging 2.1 takeaways per game.  In a game where the efficiencies are very close -- OSU has a 1.0 PPH advantage -- the turnovers are going to make a difference.  Expect Jevan Snead to get stupid and throw a strike to Oklahoma State on a two-receiver route to seal this one.  RBA says Oklahoma State over Ole Miss, 24-21, with 60.2% confidence.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(39)	Houston	28	(32)	Air Force	31	56.5	(28)	Houston	28	(42)	Air Force	24	62.7
(17)	Cincinnati	24	(1)	Florida	35	85.4	(5)	Cincinnati	27	(7)	Florida	24	56.1
(23)	Mississippi	31	(33)	Oklahoma St.	27	55.3	(37)	Mississippi	21	(31)	Oklahoma St.	24	60.2

2009 Bowl Previews: Part VIII

[NOTE: This should have posted yesterday at 4:30 ET.  There were some technical difficulties that ate some of the post.]

The bowls are getting more competitive and have some real choice matchups.  Today's post looks at two mid-majors and one of the closest bowls we'll see this winter.

#14: Liberty Bowl
Arkansas Razorbacks vs East Carolina Pirates (63.6 CQR)
Eddie:  You might expect (40) East Carolina to be prepared for (24) Arkansas after beating pass-happy Houston in the Conference USA championship game.  Unlike Houston, however, Arkansas can play something resembling defense at 16.1 PPH.  Arkansas is extremely good for a five-loss team, losing to Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU with four of those games on the road, so don't let the record fool you.  Neither team has a problem with penalties or turnovers, so expect a clean game with Arkansas prevailing 28-24.
Justin: (49) East Carolina got here by squeaking past (39) Houston in the CUSA title game, but unlike Houston, (25) Arkansas has an actual offense. Houston might rack up the points, but they did it by playing a blistering pace -- nearly 200 plays per game on average -- and against sub-par defenses.  The Razorbacks have the 9th-best adjusted offense which hums along at 25.2 PPH (+3.3 PPH over Houston), a full 8.4 PPH better than ECU.  The Pirates will need to rely on their defense in order to slow down Arkansas's attack.  TFG gives them 1-in-3 odds of doing so, but favors Arkansas to prevail.

#13: Texas Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen (64.9 CQR)
Justin: By all accounts this should be a close game.  TFG ranks it as the second-closest prediction of the 34 bowls, with (37) Navy having only a 52.1% chance of prevailing over (40) Missouri.  Beore the Army game these teams were even closer in the rankings than UConn/South Carolina, so this has the potential to go down to the wire.  Both have similar offenses and similar defenses; the only big difference is that Missouri plays a much faster game than Navy.  If the Tigers can get the Midshipmen out of their game then that might tip the balance their way.  As it is, the edge goes to Navy, 31-28.
Eddie:  (39) Navy plays one of the cleanest games in town, averaging only 0.92 turnovers and 3.67 penalties per game.  Part of that is due to their offensive style, averaging only 154 plays per game with the flexbone rushing attack.  The other part is that they are simply well-disciplined.  (45) Missouri plays a contrasting style, utilizing a fast-paced spread attack with 176 plays per game.  Navy has a slight edge with 15.4 PPH, opposed to Missouri's 14.2 PPH.  The slow pace means that Navy's advantage is reduced, producing an exciting 25-24 conclusion at 50.2% confidence.

#9: Meineke Bowl
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pittsburgh Panthers (73.7 CQR)
(NOTE: This bowl is scheduled for December 26nd so we needed to publish our preview today.  This should be the last out-of-order preview.)
Eddie:  It was just a few weeks ago that I was talking about (12) Pittsburgh in the national championship game.  Pitt has still put in a very solid season with a combination of solid offense and defense.  (26) North Carolina has been very consistent but at a slightly lower level than Pittsburgh.  The Panthers should put up 15.2 PPH against the Tar Heels' 14.5 PPH.  Pitt is also less turnover prone than UNC, giving them the additional edge necessary to pull out a 24-21 victory.
Justin: (29) North Carolina went on a late-season tear, upending (8) Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and (20) Miami.  It was only a season-ending loss to (78) North Carolina State that dropped them out of the top 25 and stopped their meteoric rise.  Their success is thanks to their stingy defense -- giving up only 12.3 PPH -- because they're not getting much from their sputtering offense (16.9 PPH).  The 18th-ranked Panthers are slightly worse on the defensive end, but their 22.4 PPH-rated offense has propelled them into the top 20.  Both teams play at a similar pace, so expect this to be a pretty standard grind-em-out game with neither team gaining a significant upper hand.  In the end, though, TFG has the Panthers as 3-to-5 favorites to pick up the victory by 3.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(25)	Arkansas	35	(49)	East Carolina	31	65.8	(24)	Arkansas	28	(40)	East Carolina	24	55.9
(40)	Missouri	28	(37)	Navy	31	52.1	(44)	Missouri	24	(39)	Navy	25	50.4
(29)	North Carolina	24	(18)	Pittsburgh	27	59.2	(26)	North Carolina	21	(12)	Pittsburgh	24	58.1

2009 Bowl Previews: Part VII

(The #18 St. Petersburg Bowl was already covered in Part I of our bowl preview.)

We're now at the second half of our bowl preview.  It also represents the first time we break into the 60s in the CQR metrics.

#17: Sun Bowl
Oklahoma Sooners vs Stanford Cardinal (62.2 CQR)
Justin: We enter the top half of our bowl countdown and find ourselves dealing with that recurring thorn in my side, (6) Oklahoma.  The Sooners have looked good on paper but have had trouble sealing the deal on the field.  (27) Stanford came on strong the second half of this season, making a serious run for the Pac-10 title.  It was, however, too little too late.  The Cardinal had a quick rise in the rankings, briefly breaking the top 25.  They have a significantly better offense than the Sooners, but allow nearly twice as many adjusted PPH on defense.  Like a gambler that keeps doubling-down, TFG picks the Sooners to win 35-31 as 4-to-1 favorites.
Eddie: Justin has gotten a lot of negative feedback over his algorithm's obsession with (22) Oklahoma, but it might be justified this time.  (16) Stanford had an amazing season, featuring a Heisman finalist running back and a surprisingly competent freshman quarterback.  Unfortunately, neither Gerhart or Luck play on the defensive side of the ball.  Stanford's defense has been extremely suspect at times, surrendering 16.3 PPH.  As you might expect, injuries have played a significant role in Oklahoma's offensive consistency, but they still average 18.2 PPH.  This one should be a real gem with Oklahoma pulling off the upset, 28-27, with 54.6% confidence.

#16: Music City Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats (62.7 CQR)
Eddie:  This game matches the ACC runner-up against an SEC East also-ran, so logic dictates that (21) Clemson should handle (51) Kentucky easily.  Clemson has a 17.6 PPH to 14.1 PPH scoring advantage over Kentucky and wins the turnover battle.  The only statistic where Kentucky stands head-to-head is the win-loss column.  Both teams have lost five games this season, so if we purely look at the outcome, Clemson isn't that much better than Kentucky.  This leads to a higher uncertainty in RBA's prediction of a Clemson victory:  28-24 with 55.1% confidence.
Justin: Yet another ACC-SEC matchup.  No matter how the numbers come out, the game rarely turns out well for the ACC.  Everything indicates this should be (22) Clemson in a walk over (48) Kentucky -- better offense, better defense, tougher schedule -- but there's always a nagging uncertainty with ACC teams.  TFG, however, is blissfully unaware of conference affiliations and has the Tigers as 2-to-1 favorites over the Wildcats, 31-27.

#15: PapaJohn's.com Bowl
Connecticut Huskies vs South Carolina Gamecocks (63.5 CQR)
Justin: You could quite accurately term this the "Coin Toss Bowl of the Year".  (41) Connecticut and (42) South Carolina are so evenly matched in the eyes of TFG that they're separated by less that one-thousandths of a point in expected winning percentage.  By virtue of being the higher-ranked team TFG gives the nod to the Huskies, but this is a 0.500 game to at least three decimal places.  There are differences, however.  UConn has a better offense (+4.3 PPH) but a weaker defense (+3.7 PPH).  And USC plays at the more deliberate pace of an SEC team -- 82.5 plays per half -- while UConn plays more up-tempo at 87.3 PPH.  TFG calls this a dead coin toss with the edge of the coin reading UConn 28, South Carolina 27.
Eddie:  Both (38) Connecticut and (50) South Carolina are coming off five-loss seasons and finishes in the middle of their respective conferences.  Connecticut is favored 15.4 PPH to 14.0 PPH and has a slight advantage in takeaways.  However, their offense is less consistent than South Carolina's.  RBA has this one as a tossup with 50.2% confidence, so expect a really, really close game with Connecticut winning 27-24.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(6)	Oklahoma	35	(27)	Stanford	31	79.5	(22)	Oklahoma	28	(16)	Stanford	27	54.6
(22)	Clemson	31	(48)	Kentucky	27	66.1	(21)	Clemson	28	(51)	Kentucky	24	55.0
(41)	Connecticut	28	(42)	South Carolina	27	50.0	(38)	Connecticut	27	(50)	South Carolina	24	50.1

2009 Bowl Previews: Part VI

At this point we are solidly in the middle of the pack for our bowl preview.  Bowls with a mid-50 CQR are moderately competitive with "okay" teams, or relatively mismatched between a solid team and a team that will be lucky to be competitive.  This brings us to ...

#21: Independence Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies (55.2 CQR)
Eddie:  (52) Georgia and (62) Texas A&M are both coming off disappointing seasons.  Both offenses are reasonably consistent, but the defenses have been atrocious against better competition.  Luckily for both teams, neither qualifies as "better" competition;  Georgia's and Texas A&M's strengths are 0.584 and 0.491, respectively.  This game is likely to be ugly with a lot of turnovers and penalties.  RBA says Georgia should pull out the victory:  31-28.
Justin: These teams are remarkably similar with one small exception.  Both teams have an offensive efficiency in the low 20s and a defense efficiency in the high teens.  However (35) Georgia plays at a leisurely 81.5 Plays Per Half, whereas (50) Texas A&M has the third-fastest pace in the FBS Division, tearing off 91.5 PPH.  The raw numbers favor the Bulldogs, but if A&M wants to pull off the upset they'll need to get Georgia off their game and into an uncomfortably quick pace.  Barring that, Georgia brings the track meet under control and pulls off the 38-35 victory.

#20: Emerald Bowl
Boston College Eagles vs USC Trojans (56.6 CQR)
Justin: This will be unfamiliar territory for the (11) Trojans, as this isn't the Rose Bowl.  Statistically they've done well, but haven't been able to seal the deal against several teams.  An early glance over the numbers hints this might be the hallmark of an inexperienced team: brilliant in bursts but unable to get their record to match their talent level.  (46) Boston College, however, has an anemic offense that's kept afloat by a stingy defense.  In their fall since mid-season, USC has been strong of defense but struggled on offense.  The only hope the Eagles have of not getting blown out is to find some extra offense against USC.  TFG isn't convinced this will happen, and picks USC as 3-to-1 favorites in a low-scoring match.
Eddie: (36) Southern Cal has an advantage at 15.6 PPH over (49) Boston College's 13.5 PPH. Southern Cal also wins the turnover battle, so they should win this one.  The only reason this game is close is because USC's defense has been uncharacteristically awful in the second half of the season, demonstrating a 35.4 PPH swing depending on the quality of opponent.  If USC's defense decides to show up, Boston College doesn't have a prayer.  If USC's defense is lame, it could be close.  Recent history suggests the latter, so RBA predicts a close USC victory at 24-21.

#19: Gator Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs West Virginia Mountaineers (56.7 CQR)
Eddie:  For a set of mismatched opponents, this game might actually be pretty decent because the teams are nearly identical on the stat sheet:  turnovers, takeaways, penalties, and quality-adjusted offense and defense.  The key is that (18) West Virginia has actually been on the winning side of the ball, whereas (65) Florida State hasn't been able to get the breaks necessary to win.  Since the only difference are team strengths, Florida State suffers a higher derating factor and falls behind with 15.4 PPH, as opposed to West Virginia's 18.9 PPH.  RBA expects West Virginia to win by a touchdown:  31-24.
Justin: TFG says these teams aren't quite as mismatched and RBA believes, although (28) West Virginia is still the favorite.  (44) Florida State has a more efficient offense than the Mountaineers, but has had more problems on the defensive side, surrendering 5.8 PPH more than West Virginia.  If the Seminoles can work out their defensive issues they'll have a good shot at pulling this one off.  Failing that, TFG has the Mountaineers by a FG, 31-28.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(35)	Georgia	38	(50)	Texas A&M	35	57.5	(52)	Georgia	31	(62)	Texas A&M	28	56.5
(46)	Boston College	24	(11)	USC	27	77.4	(49)	Boston College	21	(36)	USC	24	53.4
(44)	Florida St.	28	(28)	West Virginia	31	60.5	(65)	Florida St.	24	(18)	West Virginia	31	67.1

2009 Bowl Previews: Part V

Two more in the countdown, plus a look ahead thanks to some scheduling quirks.  It's part five of our Bowl Preview series.  [Editor's note:  Eddie is having technical difficulties today, so he'll have to post his picks tomorrow.]

#23: Chick-fil-a Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Tech Hokies (54.1 CQR)
Justin: This is just one of those matchups you get when a bowl takes the Xth-best from one conference and the Yth-best from another conference.  Records aside, (8) Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC barring a freak home loss to North Carolina and a tough loss on the road to Georgia Tech.  (30) Tennessee is a thoroughly middle-of-the-pack SEC team.  Of course, we've seen how well these ACC-SEC matchups tend to go for the ACC, so perhaps I should reserve judgement.  But with a +3.6 PPH edge on the offensive end and a -4.0 PPH edge on the defensive end, Tech has the advantage on paper, and TFG has them as 78.2% favorites to win.
Eddie: RBA agrees pretty well with TFG on this one, as (9) Virginia Tech matches up with (34) Tennessee.  Tennessee's ranking seems to be based on playing Alabama and Florida close, rather than beating anybody of note. Virginia Tech has the heads of Nebraska and Miami mounted on its wall.  By the numbers, Virginia Tech expects 16.5 PPH against Tennessee's 10.9 PPH and wins the turnover battle.  RBA says Virginia Tech wins a mismatched ball game:  27-17 with 64% confidence.

#22: Outback Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs Northwestern Wildcats (54.2 CQR)
Eddie:  RBA says this should be one of the better bowl games, matching up two of the more fast-paced teams in the NCAA.  (42) Auburn has an above-average offense but has a significant drop-off against better competition.  (53) Northwestern is far more consistent.  Northwestern has a very slight edge on turnover margin and penalties.  RBA says Auburn by a field goal:  27-24 with only 51.6% confidence.
Justin: (34) Auburn and (61) Northwestern are virtual mirrors of each other on defense, allowing roughly 14.8 PPH.  Why, then, the gap in rankings?  Auburn's offense.  With a +5.7 PPH margin over the Wildcats, the Tigers should be able to sprint their way to a victory.  And a sprint it will be, as we should expect to see nearly 180 plays this game.  Good defense will keep the scores down somewhat, but TFG picks Auburn by a touchdown.

#7: Las Vegas Bowl
(NOTE: This bowl is scheduled for December 22nd so we needed to publish our preview today.  This type of scheduling-driven out-of-order ranking will happen a few times.)
BYU Cougars vs Oregon State Beavers (74.6 CQR)
Justin: It's the Beavers against the Cougars in the Las Vegas Bowl.  I don't make it up, I just write about it.  Jokes aside, this looks to be one of the better bowls this year.  The (19) Cougars played strong all year, including wins over (6) Oklahoma and (16) Utah.  Their lone losses came to (2) TCU and a freak trouncing by (44) Florida State.  (24) Oregon State has played a similarly strong slate, becoming one of the first teams in the nation to find the cracks in USC's armor.  This one will be a tough call, but TFG gives a 3-point edge to BYU.
Eddie: Since I'm posting after the fact, we know how this one turns out.  (19) BYU has a slight edge of 0.8 PPH over (23) Oregon State.  However, Oregon State turns the ball over 1.1 times fewer per game.  Expect the Mountain West to earn a Pac-10 pelt to hang on its wall, with BYU winning 28-27.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(30)	Tennessee	24	(8)	Virginia Tech	31	78.2	(34)	Tennessee	17	(9)	Virginia Tech	27	64.0
(34)	Auburn	31	(61)	Northwestern	24	70.8	(41)	Auburn	27	(53)	Northwestern	24	51.6
(19)	BYU	31	(24)	Oregon St.	28	54.8	(19)	BYU	28	(23)	Oregon St.	27	61.0

2009 Bowl Previews: Part IV

We're more than a quarter of the way through our bowl preview series.  Today brings us to part four.

#26: EagleBank Bowl
UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls (52.4 CQR)
Eddie:  The football monopoly in Los Angeles may be over, but it's certainly not because (60) UCLA has improved enough to catch USC.  UCLA plays ugly football, expecting a pathetic 13.6 PPH against average competition and committing nearly two turnovers per game.  On the other hand, (32) Temple has made the year's biggest turnaround and plays the favorite in this bowl game.  We expect Temple to put up 17.2 PPH as opposed to UCLA's 10.9 PPH and win impressively 28-17.
Justin: Here's another game where Eddie and I disagree.  This hasn't gone too well for me recently (sorry about Southern Miss) but these teams are at different ends of the mediocre spectrum.  (60) UCLA has solid defense, allowing only 13.8 PPH; this puts them a step ahead of this year's top-tier programs like Cincinnati and Texas Tech.  Only their anemic offense holds them back, producing only 13.3 PPH.  (69) Temple has a poor defense that gives up 18.7 PPH, but an offense with more kick than UCLA's, producing 17.4 PPH.  This looks to be one of the closer bowl games, with Cal expected to prevail 27-24 in a 52.4% coin toss.

#25: GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Troy Trojans (53.5 CQR)
Justin: (36) Central Michigan finally got some love at the end of the season, sneaking into the AP top 25.  (72) Troy was not so lucky, but at least they're going bowling.  This one looks to score high on the "quality" rating with one good and one mediocre team, but won't score high on the "competitive" metric since it pits a good team against a mediocre one.  The Chippewas sport superior efficiencies on both sides of the ball, making this bowl look to be one of the less competitive ones this year.
Eddie:  (33) Central Michigan features the most productive dual-threat quarterback in NCAA history in Dan LeFevour.  (48) Troy plays at a frantic pace of 179 plays/game.  However, Central Michigan's 14.5 PPH outpaces Troy's 12.2 PPH, implying that Troy's attempts to push the tempo will cause them more harm than good.  Troy averages 2.17 turnovers per game, as opposed to Central Michigan's 1.17.  Everything on paper says Central Michigan will win this one.  RBA says 27-21, Central Michigan.

#24: Poinsettia Bowl
California Golden Bears vs Utah Utes (53.9 CQR)
Eddie: For an offensive guru like Jeff Tedford, (54) California's 11.8 PPH isn't very impressive.  Backup Shane Vereen came on strong against Stanford in relief of Jahvid Best, but odds are that Vereen is a step down, otherwise he would have been starting.  (29) Utah puts up 17.2 PPH, albeit against modest competition.  RBA says Utah over Cal:  28-20.
Justin: (53) Cal has been all over the map this season, beating (27) Stanford on the road one week and then getting blown out by (56) Washington two weeks later (at the time of the Cal-UW game, the Golden Bears were ranked 28 spots higher than the Huskies; after the game they were 3 spots apart).  Utah, however, has been consistent all year.  Their only three losses have been on the road, with all three opponents currently ranked in the top 20.  This bowl sports better teams than the GMAC Bowl, but less competition.  TFG says Utah is a 3-to-1 favorite.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(60)	UCLA	27	(69)	Temple	24	52.4	(60)	UCLA	17	(32)	Temple	28	68.1
(36)	Central Michigan	31	(72)	Troy	27	69.8	(33)	Central Michigan	27	(48)	Troy	21	56.0
(53)	California	24	(16)	Utah	31	75.3	(54)	California	20	(29)	Utah	28	57.0

2009 Bowl Previews: Part III

Welcome to Day Two-and-a-Half Three of our Bowl Preview special.

#29: International Bowl
Northern Illinois Huskies vs South Florida Bulls (47.8 CQR)
Justin: (59) Northern Illinois is the very definition of an average team according to TFG, but they achieved this dubious distinction by playing the 11th-weakest schedule in the Bowl Division.  The Huskies also play at the second-slowest pace in all of FBS, behind only Florida.  The 71st-ranked Bulls play better defense than the Huskies, but also spot Northern Illinois 4.3 PPH on the offensive side.  If South Florida can step it up on the offense and speed up the Huskies out of their comfort zone they've got a shot.  For now TFG gives the slightest of nods to Northern Illinois, 28-27.
Eddie: (63) USF has an advantage over (58) Northern Illinois on the scoreboard with a 16.6 PPH to 15.9 PPH advantage.  However, NIU plays a cleaner game, committing 0.72 fewer turnovers and 1.5 fewer penalties per game.  RBA says this is a close game with only 50.5% confidence:  NIU 28 - USF 27.

#28: New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (49.3 CQR)
Eddie:  My heart weeps for this pick because half my family went to (59) Southern Miss.  (56) Middle Tennessee has a 15.1 PPH to 13.4 PPH edge over Southern Miss.  Although Southern Miss has an advantage in turnovers, it is offset my a more opportunistic Middle Tennessee defense.  My family allegiance says Southern Miss, but RBA picks Middle Tennessee 28-27.
Justin: I'm sure Eddie will be relieved to find out he's wrong on this one, as TFG favors (57) Southern Miss over the 76th-ranked Blue Raiders.  Both teams play at a frantic pace, but Southern Miss has the superior offense and hasn't played the creampuff schedule of Middle Tennessee, which ranks dead-last in their division.  TFG says Southern Miss by 4.

#27: Alamo Bowl
Michigan State Spartans vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (51.6 CQR)
Justin: This bowl scores high on the 'Quality' portion of the CQR metric, the first one in our countdown to sport two teams in the top 50 of the TFG.  Unfortunately it pits the (10) Red Raiders against (47) Michigan State.  Texas Tech has a superior defense and a vastly superior offense.  The Spartans play a relatively uptempo 86.5 plays per half, but the Red Raiders have the 6th-quickest pace in FBS, averaging over 90 PPH.  Barring any major surprises, expect this one to be over by early in the second half.  Texas Tech 38, Michigan State 31.
Eddie: This one shouldn't be close, as it matches up (15) Texas Tech against (57) Michigan State.  (Of course, that's what I said about Fresno State/Wyoming, but just ignore the man behind the curtain.)  Texas Tech holds a 18.9 PPH to 13.5 PPH advantage over the Spartans, as well as a takeaway advantage of 0.82 takeaways per game.  Michigan State is more careful with the football and slightly better in penalties, but things just don't look good for them here.  RBA's prediction is Texas Tech over Michigan State, 34-24.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(59)	Northern Ill.	28	(71)	South Florida	27	56.5	(58)	Northern Ill.	28	(63)	South Florida	27	50.5
(76)	Middle Tenn.	27	(57)	Southern Miss.	31	60.7	(56)	Middle Tenn.	28	(59)	Southern Miss.	27	61.8
(47)	Michigan St.	31	(10)	Texas Tech	38	78.0	(57)	Michigan St.	24	(15)	Texas Tech	34	61.2

2009 Bowl Previews: Part II

[ This should have been posted yesterday, but I had a bout of food poisoning yesterday.  Time to get back on track. ]

#32: Insight Bowl
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (39.6 CQR)
Eddie:  Neither (69) Iowa State or (64) Minnesota is particularly good offensively, especially since Eric Decker went down with an injury.  However, Minnesota plays relatively consistent defense.  Iowa State forces more turnovers, so they can make this a game.  RBA favors Minnesota, 27-24, but with a virtual coin flip at 52.5% confidence.
Justin: Both (68) Minnesota and (82) Iowa State sport similar defensive efficiencies (17.0 and 17.8 PPH, respectively) but Minnesota has a 2.3 PPH edge on the offensive end and has played a the 12-strongest schedule in the Bowl Division.  In an odd statistical convergence, TFG also favors Minnesota 27-24, but with a slightly higher confidence level.

#31: Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Idaho Vandals (40.4 CQR)
Justin: Expect this game to be the very definition of a shootout.  (77) Bowling Green might play lackluster defense by allowing 19.0 PPH, but the 86th-ranked Vandals are tied for having the 8th worse defensive efficiency by allowing 25.6 PPH.  They make up for it by having a slightly better offense than Bowling Green, but that's not saying much.  If you want to know the importance of a good defense, all you have to do is look at Idaho and Nebraska; both have identical offensive efficiencies (18.7) but Nebraska only allows 10.4 PPH.  This should be a fast and furious shootout, with Bowling Green taking the victory, 38-31.
Eddie:  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, well, you get the picture.  After being the idiot for picking Idaho a few weeks back, RBA decides to go the other way and pick (55) Bowling Green over (71) Idaho because they play better defense and turn the ball over 0.85 times fewer per game.  Expected score is 38-31 with 52.5% confidence.

#30: Little Caesar's Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Ohio Bobcats (40.6 CQR)
Eddie:  (73) Marshall has a serious drop-off against above-average opponents, whereas (35) Ohio holds their own against teams up until 0.620 winning percentages.  Not only that, Ohio is more opportunistic on defense, averaging 2.75 takeaways per game.  RBA says Ohio over Marshall, 24-17, with 62.8% confidence.
Justin: Although (70) Ohio and (84) Marshall are only separated by 14 spots in the standings, the difference in their expected winning percentage is quite staggering (0.451 to 0.310); this is what happens when Ohio has a nearly 2.0 PPH advantage on both sides of the ball.  Marshall is really going to need to step it up to make up for that gap, but TFG isn't optimistic, pegging Ohio as nearly 2-to-1 favorites to take home the 27-24 victory.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(82)	Iowa St.	24	(68)	Minnesota	27	63.5	(69)	Iowa St.	24	(64)	Minnesota	27	52.5
(77)	Bowling Green	38	(86)	Idaho	31	60.7	(55)	Bowling Green	38	(71)	Idaho	31	52.5
(84)	Marshall	24	(70)	Ohio	27	64.7	(73)	Marshall	17	(35)	Ohio	24	62.8

2009 Bowl Previews: Part I

Today's first installment of the 2009 Bowl Preview has the two least interesting bowls, plus one early bowl that we need to preview before kickoff on Saturday.

#34: New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Wyoming Cowboys (25.6 Competitive-Quality Rating)
Justin: The 106th-ranked Cowboys are far and away the weakest of the bowl-eligible teams.  One of only six FBS teams with offensive efficiencies in the single digits (9.8 PPH), the Cowboys' only saving grace is a halfway-decent defense that only gives up 17.8 PPH; this compares favorably to (27) Stanford (18.2 PPH) and (39) Houston.  Unfortunately for the Cowboys, the (58) Bulldogs are almost the definition of an average FBS team, sporting an efficiency of 21.1 PPH on both sides of the ball.  Wyoming may be able to slow down the Fresno State offense, but won't put up many points in return.  TFG says Fresno State 31, Wyoming 24 with 83.5% confidence.
Eddie:  (45) Fresno State has an efficient offense but is prone to defensive letdowns and turnovers.  Lucky for them, (79) Wyoming has no business being in a bowl game of any kind after getting shut out three times this year and being absolutely woeful on both sides of the ball against teams with over 0.500 strength.  RBA says Fresno State over Wyoming, 31-20, with 61.6% confidence.

#33: Hawaii Bowl
Nevada Wolfpack vs. SMU Mustangs (38.9 CQR)
Eddie:  (30) Nevada and (67) SMU provide an interesting matchup between the nation's leading rushing offense and June Jones's latest passing extravaganza.  Nevada has a dominant offense that should put up around 21.4 PPH, as opposed to SMU's 16.6 PPH.  SMU doesn't get completely blown out because Nevada likes to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties, but Nevada wins this one, 35-27, with 57.6% confidence.
Justin: The 45th-ranked Wolfpack started the season on a rough note, racking up three quick losses to BCS competition.  From there they righted the ship, reeling off eight straight victories behind an explosive offense that averages 23.7 PPH.  In their season closer they gave Boise State a good game before falling, 44-33.  (91) SMU, on the other hand, is the second-weakest team to go bowling.  Their adjusted efficiency margin of -7.5 PPH -- thanks to a weak defense that allows 24.2 PPH -- does not spell "competitive opponent".  TFG predicts Nevada prevailing with a final score of 38-31 on 81.0% odds of winning.

#18: St. Petersburg Bowl
UCF Knights vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (58.7 CQR)
(NOTE: This bowl is scheduled for December 19th so we needed to publish our preview today.  This type of scheduling-driven out-of-order ranking will happen a few times.)
Justin: It's the battle of the Knights, as the 38th-ranked Scarlet Knights take on the 54th-ranked UCF Knights.  This actually looks to be one of the more competitive bowl games, with the favored Rutgers squad only having a 60.6% chance of winning.  Both defenses are reasonably good, allowing around 15 PPH.  The difference between the two is entirely in their offense: Rutgers averages 18.1 PPH and UCF averages 15.7 PPH.  UCF will need to find a way to bring the Scarlet Knights down to their own level if they want to win.  TFG prediction: Rutgers 27, UCF 24.
Eddie:  (47) Central Florida and (43) Rutgers are a near match on paper, expecting 14.2 PPH each.  The distinguishing factor in this game is UCF's tendency to turn the ball over 0.3 times more per game.  This game is effectively a coin flip with 53.3 confidence.  RBA says Rutgers by a hair, 22-21.

2009 Bowl Previews

We've been quiet for a while here at the Tempo-Free Gridiron (we actually do have day jobs, unfortunately) but starting tomorrow we'll be back with our 2009 Bowl Previews. We've ranked all 34 bowls according to our Competitive/Quality Rating (CQR) and will be giving you a bowl-by-bowl breakdown from the least interesting to most interesting bowls. As the name indicates, CQR considers both how competitive the game should be as well as the quality of the opponents. We've taken data from both my TFG rankings and predictions and Eddie's RBA system to derive this list.  The two main inputs to CQR are:

- Competitiveness: How close is this game expected to be?  The closer the odds are to 50-50, the higher the competitiveness portion.

- Quality: How good are the teams involved?  The higher their collective power rating/winning percentage across the two systems, the higher the quality metric.

These two are then combined to give us a Competitive/Quality Rating for the game.  Games are rated on a scale of 0-100, with a perfect 100 being a neutral-field game between two teams that have perfect 1.000 power ratings in both systems.  A "perfect" 0 is not actually possible, since two teams with 0.000 power rating would get a 0 on the Quality metric, but a perfect score on the Competitive metric.    One team would have to have at least a 0.001, leading to a 100% chance of victory against the helpless opponent while still giving a near-0 Quality rating.

As you'll see during our previews, most bowl games fall into the 50-70 range on the CQR scale, whereas the top-tier bowl games fall into the 70-80 range.  The proliferation of bowl games, however, means that we'll see many games down in the 40s and even 30s on the CQR scale.  We'll dispatch of those quickly, however, and get to the good previews at a clip of about three games per day (with Christmas off, of course).

Stay tuned.

Week 16: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps:  North Carolina (+9, 35 to 26); East Carolina (+9, 49 to 40); Nebraska (+8, 21 to 13).

Biggest drops:  California (-12, 42 to 54); Ohio (-10, 25 to 35); Southern Cal (-9, 27 to 36); Clemson (-8, 13 to 21).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 16: Top 25 -- RBA

My apologies for not posting rankings last week.  I've been fighting illness for about a week now.  Without further ado, here we go with the pre-bowl season RBA Top 25.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+1	TCU	1.0000	0.4480	23.2	7.3	82.2
002	+1	Boise St.	0.9916	0.4173	26.6	11.7	82.4
003	+3	Alabama	0.9830	0.5474	20.4	6.9	80.0
004	-3	Texas	0.9830	0.5000	23.5	8.5	88.1
005	--	Cincinnati	0.9661	0.4667	22.1	13.2	83.5
006	+2	Iowa	0.9609	0.5410	15.2	9.8	79.9
007	-3	Florida	0.9578	0.5402	21.8	7.1	76.9
008	+2	Ohio St.	0.9483	0.4964	18.2	7.6	80.6
009	-2	Virginia Tech	0.9442	0.5672	20.7	9.2	80.2
010	+1	Penn State	0.9356	0.4836	17.1	7.9	79.4
011	-2	Oregon	0.9313	0.5571	22.7	12.6	88.2
012	--	Pittsburgh	0.9153	0.5250	20.9	13.0	79.6
013	+8	Nebraska	0.8938	0.5034	15.3	6.9	81.9
014	+3	Georgia Tech	0.8938	0.4812	22.5	16.2	78.2
015	--	Texas Tech	0.8858	0.5078	20.3	11.8	92.3
016	-2	Stanford	0.8848	0.4710	22.7	16.3	80.2
017	-1	LSU	0.8844	0.5000	16.1	9.5	80.4
018	+6	West Virginia	0.8807	0.5289	16.0	12.0	82.6
019	-1	BYU	0.8744	0.4254	19.7	13.8	82.8
020	+2	Miami-FL	0.8739	0.5454	19.4	13.2	82.5
021	-8	Clemson	0.8578	0.5746	18.9	13.1	83.5
022	-3	Oklahoma	0.8402	0.6032	18.2	8.0	90.3
023	-3	Oregon St.	0.8318	0.5512	20.0	13.9	83.8
024	NA	Arkansas	0.8271	0.5952	25.5	16.2	83.9
025	NA	Arizona	0.8206	0.5781	18.7	12.8	84.0

New entries (from week 14):  Arkansas, Arizona

Dropped out (from week 14):  Houston, Ohio

Championship weekend seems to have clarified things for RBA.  (1) TCU faces off with (2) Boise State in your Fiesta Bowl national championship game.  Let the conspiracy theories begin about how the AQ conference champions are unfairly excluded access to the title game to avoid making the AQ conferences look bad.

According to RBA, (3) Alabama and (4) Texas are left on the outside looking in.  This outcome occurs because, although Alabama clubbed (7) Florida like a baby seal in the SEC championship game, they still squeaked by two five-loss SEC teams: (34) Tennessee and (41) Auburn.  We all know how close Texas came to losing to (13) Nebraska, and Texas can't disguise the fact that they struggled mightily against the only two top 25 teams on their schedule:  Nebraska and (22) Oklahoma.

Aside from the shuffling of national title games from the BCS's arrangement, the most WTF component of the RBA top 25 is Nebraska.  The Huskers reached up to #13 despite a 9-4 record.  This standing is entirely based on their defense's ability to keep them in ball games in spite of an abysmal offensive.  Personally, I wouldn't rank them that high, but I understand where a computer would see little shame in losing three games by a total of four points.  That 21 point loss to (15) Texas Tech hurts, though.

Week 16: Full Rankings -- TFG

These are the final pre-bowl rankings.  Updates will come a bit less frequently but we will try and have a bowl preview special, looking at each bowl and how the teams match up.  Obviously no real changes this past week, other than Army and Navy.  A few teams had minor adjustments based on the Army/Navy game -- a ripple effect -- but these were generally limited to pairs of teams that were already close to each other in the rankings.

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Washington (+15, 71 to 56); Wisconsin (+6, 37 to 31); Central Michigan (+4, 40 to 36); Michigan (+4, 68 to 64); LA Tech (+4, 70 to 66).

Biggest drops: California (-10, 43 to 53); Ohio (-10, 60 to 70); Hawaii (-5, 90 to 95).

Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG

I know this is going to open my rankings up to mockery, but here at your TFG Week 15 Top 25.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Florida	0.9523	0.6273	28.4	9.4	77.8
002	--	TCU	0.9488	0.4181	25.7	8.7	84.6
003	+1	Alabama	0.9480	0.6526	25.3	8.6	80.6
004	-1	Texas	0.9348	0.5556	28.4	10.6	86.6
005	--	Ohio St.	0.9262	0.5327	21.1	8.3	83.5
006	--	Oklahoma	0.9074	0.6867	21.4	9.2	90.5
007	--	Penn State	0.8961	0.5225	20.9	9.4	82.4
008	--	Virginia Tech	0.8927	0.5848	24.2	11.0	81.4
009	--	Boise St.	0.8884	0.3414	25.9	12.0	85.3
010	+1	Texas Tech	0.8418	0.5846	25.8	13.9	90.3
011	-1	USC	0.8404	0.5798	19.6	10.6	86.1
012	--	Oregon	0.8383	0.6123	23.1	12.5	92.9
013	--	Iowa	0.8329	0.5624	19.7	10.9	82.5
014	--	Nebraska	0.8306	0.5589	18.7	10.4	82.4
015	--	LSU	0.8252	0.5931	19.4	10.9	82.8
016	--	Utah	0.7805	0.4412	20.1	12.6	87.1
017	--	Cincinnati	0.7736	0.5012	22.4	14.2	87.3
018	--	Pittsburgh	0.7708	0.5418	22.3	14.2	83.7
019	--	BYU	0.7683	0.4341	22.5	14.4	85.3
020	--	Miami-FL	0.7539	0.6303	21.5	14.2	84.3
021	+3	Georgia Tech	0.7400	0.6213	26.5	18.0	79.9
022	-1	Clemson	0.7394	0.6110	20.2	13.7	85.1
023	--	Mississippi	0.7325	0.6230	21.2	14.6	83.0
024	+1	Oregon St.	0.7317	0.5673	21.2	14.6	86.9
025	-3	Arkansas	0.7311	0.6504	25.2	17.4	85.1

No new entries, no teams dropping out.

The big issue with these rankings obviously has to be that even after taking a solid beating from Alabama, Florida is still at the top.  How can that be?  The simple answer is that the rankings don't explicitly rank one team above another because the first team defeated the second team.  Otherwise I'd have to rank Washington ahead of California this week (UC is still ahead of UW, but only by three spots instead of 28).  So what does it take for one team to leapfrog another?  Let's look at last week's rankings.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Florida	0.9666	0.5884	29.2	8.4	77.7
004	--	Alabama	0.9333	0.6076	23.5	8.9	80.5

And this week

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Florida	0.9523	0.6273	28.4	9.4	77.8
003	+1	Alabama	0.9480	0.6526	25.3	8.6	80.6

Notice the change in expected winning percentage.  Florida dropped 0.0143 points and Alabama rose 0.0147 points, for an overall delta of 0.0290 points.  The only reason Alabama didn't jump to the top was because Florida had such a big head start going into the game.  For example, if Arkansas had posted that kind of gain they could have leapfrogged from 25th to 20th.  After running the numbers a bit more, here's what would have happened if Alabama had kicked the extra point instead of going for the failed two-point conversion and had kicked a field goal as time ran out instead of letting the clock expire:

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+3	Alabama	0.9500	0.6519	25.7	8.6	80.6
002	-1	Florida	0.9499	0.6281	28.4	9.6	77.8
003	-1	TCU	0.9488	0.4181	25.7	8.7	84.6

The Tide would have jumped ahead of the Gators but not defeated the Gators soundly enough to have them fall behind TCU.

In the Big XII title game, the Longhorns got lucky on several grounds and snuck past Nebraska.  TFG was unimpressed with their performance, though, and combined with Alabama's victory over Florida they dropped one spot into fourth.  On some level it's difficult to argue with people who say that the Alabama-Florida game was the actual title game and the upcoming Texas-Alabama game won't be as interesting.  At the same time, though, even (7) Penn State would have a 1-in-3 shot of upsetting the Tide.  For the record, those are the same odds of victory that Alabama had going into the game against Florida and we all see how that turned out.

The only other big movement in the top 25 was Georgia Tech jumping in front of Clemson after the Ramblin' Wreck defeated the Tigers in the ACC Championship.

Week 14: Summary

With the exception of Army-Navy and the bowl games, this week pretty much wraps up the college football season.  My TFG picks went 11-4 (73.3%) while Eddie's RBA went 9-6 (60%).  Outside of Washington's romp over Cal there weren't any major upsets in this closing week.  Let's recap the actions.

Games of the Week

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Eddie said:  If Alabama can get the offense rolling and make a few big plays to Julio Jones to keep the safeties honest, they can win, but if they play like they have during the second half of the season, Florida takes the title.  RBA says Florida, 20-14, but with only 50.9% confidence.
Justin: All of this adds up to a rough game for Alabama, with TFG predicting a 31-24 victory for Tebow and the Gators, punching their ticket for the title game.
What happened: Alabama just keeps doing what needs to be done in order to win.  Nick Saban drew up the game plan and thoroughly out-coached Urban Meyer.  Tim Tebow looked lost most of the night, and Alabama took this one in a cakewalk.  Alabama is title game bound, while Florida had their Sugar Bowl ticket punched for them.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers
Justin: TFG is calling this one a coin toss with the slight edge going to Cincinnati: 31-27, Bearcats, with a 50.6% chance of being right.
Eddie: Pittsburgh tries to slow the game down by grinding out long drives on the ground, but Cincinnati pulls off the undefeated season 21-20.
What happened: This was about as close as you can get to a tie game without going into OT.  Pitt and Cincy battled it out all night and in the end it came down to a missed extra point thanks to a botched hold on the snap.  I had the odds right and Eddie provided the final margin.  The Bearcats have been playing juuuust well enough to sneak by most weeks; will this work on the big stage?

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Eddie: Expect West Virginia to play better in all facets of the game but keep shooting themselves in the foot as Rutgers squeaks by in the home upset, 25-24.
Justin: Home field advantage isn't as big a factor in December as it is in September, so Rutgers won't get a big bump from playing at home.  WVU takes this one, 27-24.
What happened: Eddie's been griping about this being the "Idiot" game of the week, but since it was either this or the Florida-Atlantic/Florida-International game (which I also got right) so WVU/Rutgers it was.  The Scarlet Knights just couldn't pull off the season closer, tossing an interception of 4th-and-6 as they were trying to get into field goal range.  That makes Eddie the Idiot for the second week in a row.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers
Justin: Now that 10 games have passed and they're playing on a neutral field, can Clemson put it together and pull off the victory?  TFG says "yes, but just barely."  Final score: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 31 in a game that shows little defense but some explosive offense.
Eddie:  Clemson is a little more clumsy with the ball, but Georgia Tech isn't quite as good at forcing turnovers.  They've played a close game once already, so expect Clemson to be ready to stop the flexbone and win a good one, 28-24.
What happened: It's the ACC.  Do we need to say more?  Not many people saw the end of this game since Texas was busy misreading a clock against Nebraska at the same time, but Clemson's defense was unable to slow down the Ramblin' Wreck and unable to respond at the very end.  Tech gets their first ACC championship is nearly 20 years and a bid to a BCS bowl.