#29: International Bowl
Northern Illinois Huskies vs South Florida Bulls (47.8 CQR)
Justin: (59) Northern Illinois is the very definition of an average team according to TFG, but they achieved this dubious distinction by playing the 11th-weakest schedule in the Bowl Division. The Huskies also play at the second-slowest pace in all of FBS, behind only Florida. The 71st-ranked Bulls play better defense than the Huskies, but also spot Northern Illinois 4.3 PPH on the offensive side. If South Florida can step it up on the offense and speed up the Huskies out of their comfort zone they've got a shot. For now TFG gives the slightest of nods to Northern Illinois, 28-27.
Eddie: (63) USF has an advantage over (58) Northern Illinois on the scoreboard with a 16.6 PPH to 15.9 PPH advantage. However, NIU plays a cleaner game, committing 0.72 fewer turnovers and 1.5 fewer penalties per game. RBA says this is a close game with only 50.5% confidence: NIU 28 - USF 27.
#28: New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (49.3 CQR)
Eddie: My heart weeps for this pick because half my family went to (59) Southern Miss. (56) Middle Tennessee has a 15.1 PPH to 13.4 PPH edge over Southern Miss. Although Southern Miss has an advantage in turnovers, it is offset my a more opportunistic Middle Tennessee defense. My family allegiance says Southern Miss, but RBA picks Middle Tennessee 28-27.
Justin: I'm sure Eddie will be relieved to find out he's wrong on this one, as TFG favors (57) Southern Miss over the 76th-ranked Blue Raiders. Both teams play at a frantic pace, but Southern Miss has the superior offense and hasn't played the creampuff schedule of Middle Tennessee, which ranks dead-last in their division. TFG says Southern Miss by 4.
#27: Alamo Bowl
Michigan State Spartans vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (51.6 CQR)
Justin: This bowl scores high on the 'Quality' portion of the CQR metric, the first one in our countdown to sport two teams in the top 50 of the TFG. Unfortunately it pits the (10) Red Raiders against (47) Michigan State. Texas Tech has a superior defense and a vastly superior offense. The Spartans play a relatively uptempo 86.5 plays per half, but the Red Raiders have the 6th-quickest pace in FBS, averaging over 90 PPH. Barring any major surprises, expect this one to be over by early in the second half. Texas Tech 38, Michigan State 31.
Eddie: This one shouldn't be close, as it matches up (15) Texas Tech against (57) Michigan State. (Of course, that's what I said about Fresno State/Wyoming, but just ignore the man behind the curtain.) Texas Tech holds a 18.9 PPH to 13.5 PPH advantage over the Spartans, as well as a takeaway advantage of 0.82 takeaways per game. Michigan State is more careful with the football and slightly better in penalties, but things just don't look good for them here. RBA's prediction is Texas Tech over Michigan State, 34-24.
Summary:
| Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (59) | Northern Ill. | 28 |
(71) | South Florida | 27 |
56.5 |
(58) | Northern Ill. | 28 |
(63) | South Florida | 27 |
50.5 |
| (76) | Middle Tenn. | 27 |
(57) | Southern Miss. | 31 |
60.7 |
(56) | Middle Tenn. | 28 |
(59) | Southern Miss. | 27 |
61.8 |
| (47) | Michigan St. | 31 |
(10) | Texas Tech | 38 |
78.0 |
(57) | Michigan St. | 24 |
(15) | Texas Tech | 34 |
61.2 |
