#26: EagleBank Bowl
UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls (52.4 CQR)
Eddie: The football monopoly in Los Angeles may be over, but it's certainly not because (60) UCLA has improved enough to catch USC. UCLA plays ugly football, expecting a pathetic 13.6 PPH against average competition and committing nearly two turnovers per game. On the other hand, (32) Temple has made the year's biggest turnaround and plays the favorite in this bowl game. We expect Temple to put up 17.2 PPH as opposed to UCLA's 10.9 PPH and win impressively 28-17.
Justin: Here's another game where Eddie and I disagree. This hasn't gone too well for me recently (sorry about Southern Miss) but these teams are at different ends of the mediocre spectrum. (60) UCLA has solid defense, allowing only 13.8 PPH; this puts them a step ahead of this year's top-tier programs like Cincinnati and Texas Tech. Only their anemic offense holds them back, producing only 13.3 PPH. (69) Temple has a poor defense that gives up 18.7 PPH, but an offense with more kick than UCLA's, producing 17.4 PPH. This looks to be one of the closer bowl games, with Cal expected to prevail 27-24 in a 52.4% coin toss.
#25: GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs Troy Trojans (53.5 CQR)
Justin: (36) Central Michigan finally got some love at the end of the season, sneaking into the AP top 25. (72) Troy was not so lucky, but at least they're going bowling. This one looks to score high on the "quality" rating with one good and one mediocre team, but won't score high on the "competitive" metric since it pits a good team against a mediocre one. The Chippewas sport superior efficiencies on both sides of the ball, making this bowl look to be one of the less competitive ones this year.
Eddie: (33) Central Michigan features the most productive dual-threat quarterback in NCAA history in Dan LeFevour. (48) Troy plays at a frantic pace of 179 plays/game. However, Central Michigan's 14.5 PPH outpaces Troy's 12.2 PPH, implying that Troy's attempts to push the tempo will cause them more harm than good. Troy averages 2.17 turnovers per game, as opposed to Central Michigan's 1.17. Everything on paper says Central Michigan will win this one. RBA says 27-21, Central Michigan.
#24: Poinsettia Bowl
California Golden Bears vs Utah Utes (53.9 CQR)
Eddie: For an offensive guru like Jeff Tedford, (54) California's 11.8 PPH isn't very impressive. Backup Shane Vereen came on strong against Stanford in relief of Jahvid Best, but odds are that Vereen is a step down, otherwise he would have been starting. (29) Utah puts up 17.2 PPH, albeit against modest competition. RBA says Utah over Cal: 28-20.
Justin: (53) Cal has been all over the map this season, beating (27) Stanford on the road one week and then getting blown out by (56) Washington two weeks later (at the time of the Cal-UW game, the Golden Bears were ranked 28 spots higher than the Huskies; after the game they were 3 spots apart). Utah, however, has been consistent all year. Their only three losses have been on the road, with all three opponents currently ranked in the top 20. This bowl sports better teams than the GMAC Bowl, but less competition. TFG says Utah is a 3-to-1 favorite.
Summary:
| Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (60) | UCLA | 27 |
(69) | Temple | 24 |
52.4 |
(60) | UCLA | 17 |
(32) | Temple | 28 |
68.1 |
| (36) | Central Michigan | 31 |
(72) | Troy | 27 |
69.8 |
(33) | Central Michigan | 27 |
(48) | Troy | 21 |
56.0 |
| (53) | California | 24 |
(16) | Utah | 31 |
75.3 |
(54) | California | 20 |
(29) | Utah | 28 |
57.0 |
