#23: Chick-fil-a Bowl
Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Tech Hokies (54.1 CQR)
Justin: This is just one of those matchups you get when a bowl takes the Xth-best from one conference and the Yth-best from another conference. Records aside, (8) Virginia Tech was the class of the ACC barring a freak home loss to North Carolina and a tough loss on the road to Georgia Tech. (30) Tennessee is a thoroughly middle-of-the-pack SEC team. Of course, we've seen how well these ACC-SEC matchups tend to go for the ACC, so perhaps I should reserve judgement. But with a +3.6 PPH edge on the offensive end and a -4.0 PPH edge on the defensive end, Tech has the advantage on paper, and TFG has them as 78.2% favorites to win.
Eddie: RBA agrees pretty well with TFG on this one, as (9) Virginia Tech matches up with (34) Tennessee. Tennessee's ranking seems to be based on playing Alabama and Florida close, rather than beating anybody of note. Virginia Tech has the heads of Nebraska and Miami mounted on its wall. By the numbers, Virginia Tech expects 16.5 PPH against Tennessee's 10.9 PPH and wins the turnover battle. RBA says Virginia Tech wins a mismatched ball game: 27-17 with 64% confidence.
#22: Outback Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs Northwestern Wildcats (54.2 CQR)
Eddie: RBA says this should be one of the better bowl games, matching up two of the more fast-paced teams in the NCAA. (42) Auburn has an above-average offense but has a significant drop-off against better competition. (53) Northwestern is far more consistent. Northwestern has a very slight edge on turnover margin and penalties. RBA says Auburn by a field goal: 27-24 with only 51.6% confidence.
Justin: (34) Auburn and (61) Northwestern are virtual mirrors of each other on defense, allowing roughly 14.8 PPH. Why, then, the gap in rankings? Auburn's offense. With a +5.7 PPH margin over the Wildcats, the Tigers should be able to sprint their way to a victory. And a sprint it will be, as we should expect to see nearly 180 plays this game. Good defense will keep the scores down somewhat, but TFG picks Auburn by a touchdown.
#7: Las Vegas Bowl
(NOTE: This bowl is scheduled for December 22nd so we needed to publish our preview today. This type of scheduling-driven out-of-order ranking will happen a few times.)
BYU Cougars vs Oregon State Beavers (74.6 CQR)
Justin: It's the Beavers against the Cougars in the Las Vegas Bowl. I don't make it up, I just write about it. Jokes aside, this looks to be one of the better bowls this year. The (19) Cougars played strong all year, including wins over (6) Oklahoma and (16) Utah. Their lone losses came to (2) TCU and a freak trouncing by (44) Florida State. (24) Oregon State has played a similarly strong slate, becoming one of the first teams in the nation to find the cracks in USC's armor. This one will be a tough call, but TFG gives a 3-point edge to BYU.
Eddie: Since I'm posting after the fact, we know how this one turns out. (19) BYU has a slight edge of 0.8 PPH over (23) Oregon State. However, Oregon State turns the ball over 1.1 times fewer per game. Expect the Mountain West to earn a Pac-10 pelt to hang on its wall, with BYU winning 28-27.
Summary:
| Home | Visitors | Odds | Home | Visitors | Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (30) | Tennessee | 24 | (8) | Virginia Tech | 31 | 78.2 | (34) | Tennessee | 17 | (9) | Virginia Tech | 27 | 64.0 |
| (34) | Auburn | 31 | (61) | Northwestern | 24 | 70.8 | (41) | Auburn | 27 | (53) | Northwestern | 24 | 51.6 |
| (19) | BYU | 31 | (24) | Oregon St. | 28 | 54.8 | (19) | BYU | 28 | (23) | Oregon St. | 27 | 61.0 |
