We're now at the second half of our bowl preview. It also represents the first time we break into the 60s in the CQR metrics.
#17: Sun Bowl
Oklahoma Sooners vs Stanford Cardinal (62.2 CQR)
Justin: We enter the top half of our bowl countdown and find ourselves dealing with that recurring thorn in my side, (6) Oklahoma. The Sooners have looked good on paper but have had trouble sealing the deal on the field. (27) Stanford came on strong the second half of this season, making a serious run for the Pac-10 title. It was, however, too little too late. The Cardinal had a quick rise in the rankings, briefly breaking the top 25. They have a significantly better offense than the Sooners, but allow nearly twice as many adjusted PPH on defense. Like a gambler that keeps doubling-down, TFG picks the Sooners to win 35-31 as 4-to-1 favorites.
Eddie: Justin has gotten a lot of negative feedback over his algorithm's obsession with (22) Oklahoma, but it might be justified this time. (16) Stanford had an amazing season, featuring a Heisman finalist running back and a surprisingly competent freshman quarterback. Unfortunately, neither Gerhart or Luck play on the defensive side of the ball. Stanford's defense has been extremely suspect at times, surrendering 16.3 PPH. As you might expect, injuries have played a significant role in Oklahoma's offensive consistency, but they still average 18.2 PPH. This one should be a real gem with Oklahoma pulling off the upset, 28-27, with 54.6% confidence.
#16: Music City Bowl
Clemson Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats (62.7 CQR)
Eddie: This game matches the ACC runner-up against an SEC East also-ran, so logic dictates that (21) Clemson should handle (51) Kentucky easily. Clemson has a 17.6 PPH to 14.1 PPH scoring advantage over Kentucky and wins the turnover battle. The only statistic where Kentucky stands head-to-head is the win-loss column. Both teams have lost five games this season, so if we purely look at the outcome, Clemson isn't that much better than Kentucky. This leads to a higher uncertainty in RBA's prediction of a Clemson victory: 28-24 with 55.1% confidence.
Justin: Yet another ACC-SEC matchup. No matter how the numbers come out, the game rarely turns out well for the ACC. Everything indicates this should be (22) Clemson in a walk over (48) Kentucky -- better offense, better defense, tougher schedule -- but there's always a nagging uncertainty with ACC teams. TFG, however, is blissfully unaware of conference affiliations and has the Tigers as 2-to-1 favorites over the Wildcats, 31-27.
#15: PapaJohn's.com Bowl
Connecticut Huskies vs South Carolina Gamecocks (63.5 CQR)
Justin: You could quite accurately term this the "Coin Toss Bowl of the Year". (41) Connecticut and (42) South Carolina are so evenly matched in the eyes of TFG that they're separated by less that one-thousandths of a point in expected winning percentage. By virtue of being the higher-ranked team TFG gives the nod to the Huskies, but this is a 0.500 game to at least three decimal places. There are differences, however. UConn has a better offense (+4.3 PPH) but a weaker defense (+3.7 PPH). And USC plays at the more deliberate pace of an SEC team -- 82.5 plays per half -- while UConn plays more up-tempo at 87.3 PPH. TFG calls this a dead coin toss with the edge of the coin reading UConn 28, South Carolina 27.
Eddie: Both (38) Connecticut and (50) South Carolina are coming off five-loss seasons and finishes in the middle of their respective conferences. Connecticut is favored 15.4 PPH to 14.0 PPH and has a slight advantage in takeaways. However, their offense is less consistent than South Carolina's. RBA has this one as a tossup with 50.2% confidence, so expect a really, really close game with Connecticut winning 27-24.
Summary:
| Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (6) | Oklahoma | 35 |
(27) | Stanford | 31 |
79.5 |
(22) | Oklahoma | 28 |
(16) | Stanford | 27 |
54.6 |
| (22) | Clemson | 31 |
(48) | Kentucky | 27 |
66.1 |
(21) | Clemson | 28 |
(51) | Kentucky | 24 |
55.0 |
| (41) | Connecticut | 28 |
(42) | South Carolina | 27 |
50.0 |
(38) | Connecticut | 27 |
(50) | South Carolina | 24 |
50.1 |
