Today's bowls represent a huge jump in both competitiveness and quality of the opponent. From here on out we expect to see top 25 caliber teams playing close games with no clear favorites.
#8: Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (74.6 CQR)
Eddie: (13) Nebraska is surprisingly good for a four-loss team because their defense is flat-out dominant. RBA suggests that they would hold a 1.000 strength team to only 10.1 PPH, a claim backed up by a 13 point outing against (4) Texas, a 16 point outing against (9) Virginia Tech, and only three points against (22) Oklahoma. Their offense is atrocious, but they don't need much. (25) Arizona is significantly better offensively but not so much to overcome the Nebraska defense. This game hinges on Nebraska's offense. If they do well, Nebraska wins. If not, Arizona walks away with the win. RBA picks the former in a close Nebraska win, 21-20, with 51.8% confidence.
Justin: The 14th-ranked Cornhuskers have been one of those teams that is better than their record indicates. Nebraska has been doing it with defense, thanks to the efforts of Ndamukong Suh. Suh is largely responsible for the Husker's amazing 10.4 PPH defensive efficiency. The other side of the ball is an issue, though, as their 18.7 PPH offensive efficiency is the worst in the TFG top 25. The bad news for (26) Arizona is that while their offensive efficiency is slightly better than Nebraska's, their defense isn't in the same class (+3.4 PPH). This will be a hard-fought, grind'em-out game with the Cornhuskers ultimately prevailing, 27-24.
#6: Rose Bowl
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks (75.3 CQR)
Justin: This is the first game in our countdown to feature two teams in the top 15. (5) Ohio State has made their way to the top with the stingiest defense in college football, allowing a miserly 8.3 PPH and a moderate pace of 83.5 plays per half. (12) Oregon, on the other hand, has the second-fastest game in FBS competition, combining their 92.9 plays per half with the 13th-most-efficient offense at 23.1 PPH. It's the unstoppable force versus the immovable object. TFG rules somewhat sternly in favor of the immovable object as Ohio State takes home the victory, 31-27.
Eddie: RBA reveals some interesting trends in this one. Although (8) Ohio State is seen as the defensive team in this matchup, they aren't as different as you would expect in terms of efficiencies. Ohio State has only a 2.9 PPH advantage over (11) Oregon. The real difference appears when looking at turnovers; Ohio State commits 0.33 fewer turnovers and receives 0.75 more takeaways per game than Oregon. As an added bonus, Ohio State commits fewer penalties. In a game where the efficiencies match up fairly well, the turnovers and penalties make the difference, as Ohio State stops the bowl game bleeding in a 27-24 victory.
#5: Capital One Bowl
LSU Tigers vs Penn State Nittany Lions (77.2 CQR)
Eddie: (10) Penn State outmatches (17) LSU in virtually all facets, most notably with one of the best strength-of-opponent adjusted defenses in the country. Penn State holds a 12.7 PPH to 10.2 PPH advantage in what should be a hard-hitting defensive game. LSU has done a good job of limiting its mistakes with only 0.92 turnovers per game but is otherwise outclassed in all phases of the game. If Penn State kicks the ball away from Trindon Holliday, they should win this low-scoring game, 21-17.
Justin: This one features two teams with similar stats in the key categories. (7) Penn State and (15) LSU differ by only 1.5 PPH on offense, 1.5 PPH on defense, and 0.4 plays per half. Unfortunately for LSU the offensive and defensive differences fall in Penn State's favor. LSU is more battle-tested since Penn State has played a thoroughly average schedule and the TFG is impressed with the schedule of the Tigers. On the whole, though, TFG pegs the Nittany Lions as nearly 2-to-1 favorites to win by a field goal in a deliberate and mostly defense-oriented game.
Summary:
| Home | Visitors | Odds | Home | Visitors | Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (26) | Arizona | 24 | (14) | Nebraska | 27 | 65.8 | (25) | Arizona | 20 | (14) | Nebraska | 21 | 51.7 |
| (5) | Ohio St. | 31 | (12) | Oregon | 27 | 70.7 | (8) | Ohio St. | 27 | (11) | Oregon | 24 | 52.3 |
| (15) | LSU | 21 | (7) | Penn State | 24 | 64.7 | (17) | LSU | 17 | (10) | Penn State | 21 | 55.0 |
