#4: Champs Sports Bowl
Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers (77.2 CQR)
Justin: Statistically speaking, the (20) Miami Hurricanes were the second-best team in the ACC, just a slight step ahead of ACC championship contenders (21) Georgia Tech and (22) Clemson. The Hurricanes played the 13th-toughest schedule in FBS and the 3rd-most difficult behind (63) Virginia and (44) Florida State. They fared well, racking up a respectable 21.5 PPH on offense and 14.2 PPH on defense. The (31) Badgers are about 1.0 PPH adrift on both counts, but against much more average competition. The gap between 20th and 31st, however, is a slim 0.050 in expected winning percentage, so this should be a close game. Good but not great defense matched up against stronger offenses on both sides means this should be an uptempo scoring parade, with the Hurricanes prevailing 31-28. TFG expects this to be closer than the score predicts, with the Hurricanes only having a 56.8% change of winning.
Eddie: Although they've lost only three games, (27) Wisconsin sits behind a bevy of four and five loss teams because they have an absolutely absurd drop-off against good teams. The Badgers' offense has a slope of 47.7 PPH (!) across all opponent strengths. Their defense is pretty good, but it's hard to overcome that type of offensive inconsistency. What this means is that Wisconsin beats the teams that it is supposed to beat and loses to quality opponents. Unfortunately for the Badgers, (20) Miami is actually pretty good, overachieving in a year when many thought Randy Shannon would be canned mid-season. Miami should score 15.6 PPH versus Wisconsin's 13.9 PPH, and Wisconsin's 0.45 takeaways per game advantage just isn't enough to overcome that deficit. RBA has this one as a Miami victory at 24-21 with 50.4% confidence.
#3: Fiesta Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs TCU Horned Frogs (78.0 CQR)
Eddie: Here's your RBA national championship game, folks. Before picking this game, allow me to state my biases. I saw Boise State in person in 2002 during one of their 12-1 seasons. My Razorbacks absolutely flattened the Broncos in Fayetteville, 41-14, with all their points in garbage time, to give them their lone loss. Thanks to the epic butt-whooping Boise received that night, I have never really believed that mid-majors deserved a place at the table... until now. I truly believe these two teams are the best in the country. Offensively, (1) TCU and (2) Boise State are consistently effective, losing only 16.6 PPH and 10.9 PPH across all opponent strengths. That sounds like a lot, but compared to Alabama's 25.2 PPH, Texas's 39.0 PPH, Florida's 26.1 PPH, and Oregon's 32.0 PPH, that's pretty consistent. The big difference between these two teams is TCU's defense, expecting only 10.3 PPH compared to Boise's 17.1 PPH. Neither team's defense is going to dominate simply because their offenses are so good. However, TCU's defense gives them an overall 17.5 PPH to 16.6 PPH advantage over Boise State. TCU turns the ball over 0.64 more times per game, so Boise has a decent shot in this one. However, if both teams play up to their own standards, TCU wins this one, 31-28, with only 51.6% confidence. People will say that TCU's and Boise's defenses are frauds and that Alabama or Texas would shut either team down. Neither RBA or I believe that would really happen, and neither should you.
Justin: This has widely been hailed as the Plessey v. Ferguson Bowl, in which the Fiesta Bowl organizers bit the bullet and hosted both (2) TCU and (9) Boise State in an attempt to prevent non-BCS conference members from going 5-1 in BCS bowls. TFG thinks it was more likely that the (1) Florida Gators would have defeated likely opponent Boise State in the Sugar Bowl, while (2) TCU would have destroyed (21) Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. TCU has been a monster on the field, combining the 6th-ranked offense (25.7 PPH) with the 3rd-ranked defense (8.7 PPH). They've had to do it against sub-par competition, but has dominated (32) Air Force, (22) Clemson, (19) BYU, and (16) Utah. For those keeping track at home, that's three bowl winners who have fallen to TCU with Air Force scheduled to play on December 31st. Boise State has been good, with a +0.2 PPH margin on offense over TCU, but an unfortunate +3.3 PPH on defense. This will be a good game, but expect TCU to continue their domination with a 31-27 win and finish the season 13-0 and a legitimate argument for an AP National Title.
#2: Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Iowa Hawkeyes (79.6 CQR)
Justin: TFG isn't quite as bullish on either (13) Iowa or (21) Georgia Tech as Eddie's RBA, but this expects to be a good game. I admit that TFG has, to an extent, underestimated the ability of defenses to stop Georgia Tech's offense. That says a lot considering that they possess the 3rd-ranked offense in FBS with 26.5 PPH. Iowa, however, is a much better defensive matchup for the Yellow Jackets, limiting opponents to a stingy 10.9 PPH. The issue with the Hawkeyes, though, is the same as it has been all season: offense. They're one of only two teams in the TFG top 25 with an offensive efficiency in the teens (the other being Nebraska) at 19.7 PPH. Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, Georgia Tech sees their defense as an impediment to their offense getting on the field to score touchdowns, so the normally-anemic Iowa offense has a chance to put up some big points. Enough points, in fact, for TFG to label them as the favorites in the Orange Bowl. Iowa's defense comes up with some big stops and brings home the 31-27 victory.
Eddie: I find this game particularly intriguing because it matches (6) Iowa's excellent defense against (14) Georgia Tech's flexbone. Iowa averages 2.55 takeaways per game and should expect a defensive efficiency of 8.7 PPH against the Yellow Jackets. On the other side of the coin, you have the Georgia Tech running game that should put up 14.2 PPH against Iowa. While the matchup between Iowa's defense and Georgia Tech's offense is the glamourous matchup, the more relevant matchup is on the opposite side of the ball because Iowa's offense and Georgia Tech's defense have both been spotty at times. Iowa gets Ricky Stanzi back for the bowl game, so expect a little more consistency from Iowa. RBA doesn't know about that, but it knows that Iowa managed enough offense against its good opponents (Penn State and Ohio State) that they should be able to beat the Yellow Jackets 24-21 with 50.9% confidence in a very run-dominated game.
Summary:
| Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (20) | Miami-FL | 31 |
(31) | Wisconsin | 28 |
56.8 |
(20) | Miami-FL | 24 |
(27) | Wisconsin | 21 |
50.4 |
| (9) | Boise St. | 27 |
(2) | TCU | 31 |
70.0 |
(2) | Boise St. | 28 |
(1) | TCU | 31 |
51.6 |
| (21) | Georgia Tech | 27 |
(13) | Iowa | 31 |
63.7 |
(13) | Georgia Tech | 17 |
(6) | Iowa | 24 |
50.9 |
