#12: Armed Forces Bowl
Houston Cougars vs Air Force Falcons (69.3 CQR)
Justin: The 39th-ranked Cougars got a reputation for having a high-flying offense, but a large part of that is due to having the fastest pace in the FBS division at a blazing 94.5 plays per half. Their offensive efficiency can best be described as "slightly above average" at 21.9 PPH, but their defense allows 17.9 PPH which allows opponents to stay in the game far longer than necessary. (32) Air Force is the mirror image of the Cougars: average pace, stingy defense, and a slow offense. The Falcon's 15th-ranked defense will be the toughest challenge for Houston to date, and TFG thinks it'll be enough to slow down their high-octane pace: Air Force by a field goal, but only with 56.5% confidence.
Eddie: Sure, (28) Houston makes its reputation by playing fast. However, they are still much better at offense than (41) Air Force. When adjusted for opponent strength, we expect Houston to outpace Air Force with 16.6 PPH compared to 13.9 PPH. This game will be pretty close because Air Force holds a 0.58 turnover per game advantage, and they play slow, minimizing the Cougars' advantage. However, Houston pulls this one out, 28-24 with 62.7% confidence.
#11: Sugar Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Florida Gators (69.4 CQR)
Eddie: RBA doesn't know that (5) Cincinnati lost its head coach and offensive coordinator, leaving the team emotionally depleted, so I'm ready to write this pick off. Prior to those events, RBA ranks Cincinnati highly because they (a) are undefeated, elevating their team strength, (b) do not commit turnovers with regularity, and (c) have a consistent and powerful offense. (7) Florida has a very hefty drop-off on both sides of the ball against better competition; this is the same team blown out by Alabama and taken to the limit by Arkansas and Mississippi State. TFG says Florida's offensive and defensive efficiencies are 28.4 PPH and 9.4 PPH, respectively. However, if you adjust them for opponent quality, they degrade to 15.9 PPH and 16.9 PPH against Cincinnati. I'm not saying that Cincinnati is going to win this one with all their coaching turnover, but if they play like they have all season, they should.
Justin: On BCS paper this seems like quite possibly the second-best matchup. BCS #4 Cincinnati versus BCS #5 Florida. TFG, however, isn't big on the 17th-ranked Bearcats and that was before Brian Kelly decided he was leaving. Even after their manhandling by (3) Alabama, TFG still has Florida as the top team in the land, a ranking I explored in some detail two weeks ago. Giving up a net of nearly 11 PPH (6.0 on offense, 4.8 on defense) TFG doesn't expect this to be much of a game. Florida are 5-to-1 favorites to win by 11 in the least competitive game this bowl season.
#10: Cotton Bowl
Mississippi Rebels vs Oklahoma State Cowboys (72.4 CQR)
Justin: In one of the six bowls where TFG and RBA disagree, TFG gives a slight nod to (23) Mississippi over (33) Oklahoma State. The Cowboys were ranked in the top 10 early in the season but failed to deliver, playing only slightly above-average offense (21.0 PPH) and defense (15.7 PPH). Mississippi fared slightly better at 21.2 PPH and 14.6 PPH. Both teams played tough schedules and should be ready come January 2nd. I know Eddie isn't a big Houston Nutt fan, but this game looks to be close with the Rebels as 55.3% favorites to pull off the 4-point victory.
Eddie: (37) Mississippi commits turnovers in droves, averaging 2.3 per game, and supplements a consistently strong defense with a wildly erratic offense, depending on whether they decide to give Dexter McCluster the ball or not. (31) Oklahoma State has been similarly unimpressive, largely due to injuries and retarded NCAA enforcement officers, but their defense is very opportunistic, averaging 2.1 takeaways per game. In a game where the efficiencies are very close -- OSU has a 1.0 PPH advantage -- the turnovers are going to make a difference. Expect Jevan Snead to get stupid and throw a strike to Oklahoma State on a two-receiver route to seal this one. RBA says Oklahoma State over Ole Miss, 24-21, with 60.2% confidence.
Summary:
| Home | Visitors | Odds | Home | Visitors | Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (39) | Houston | 28 | (32) | Air Force | 31 | 56.5 | (28) | Houston | 28 | (42) | Air Force | 24 | 62.7 |
| (17) | Cincinnati | 24 | (1) | Florida | 35 | 85.4 | (5) | Cincinnati | 27 | (7) | Florida | 24 | 56.1 |
| (23) | Mississippi | 31 | (33) | Oklahoma St. | 27 | 55.3 | (37) | Mississippi | 21 | (31) | Oklahoma St. | 24 | 60.2 |
