Games of the Week
Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Eddie: If RBA is any indication, this game should be as good as advertised. (6) Alabama's perception by RBA has been shifted lately by a close game against Auburn. (4) Florida has gotten better since its issues against Arkansas and Mississippi State. [Insert joke about referees being less obvious here.] Alabama plays cleaner than Florida, committing fewer turnovers, getting more takeaways, and suffering fewer penalties. If Alabama can get the offense rolling and make a few big plays to Julio Jones to keep the safeties honest, they can win, but if they play like they have during the second half of the season, Florida takes the title. RBA says Florida, 20-14, but with only 50.9% confidence.
Justin: You don't need us to tell you to watch this game. (1) Florida boasts the nation's second-most efficient offense at 29.2 PPH, losing by a nose to the (3) Longhorns (29.8 PPH) but well ahead of (4) Alabama, clocking in at 23.5 PPH. The bad news for the Crimson Tide is that this puts them just ahead of (49) Florida State with a 23.2 PPH efficiency. The good news for 'bama is that their defense is the fourth-best in the nation, allowing only 8.9 PPH. Unfortunately for the Tide, the Gators are one of the three teams ahead of them, allowing only 8.4 PPH. All of this adds up to a rough game for Alabama, with TFG predicting a 31-24 victory for Tebow and the Gators, punching their ticket for the title game.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers
Justin: TFG holds the (17) Bearcats in low esteem, a full eight places behind the second-lowest undefeated team, (9) Boise State. Cincinnati has not mounted an efficient campaign this year and has played a sub-0.500 strength-of-schedule. The quality gap between the Bearcats and (15) LSU is as large as the gap between the Tigers and (8) Virginia Tech. Fortunately for Cincinnati (18) Pittsburgh has played a similarly weak slate and performed about as well (i.e., okay but not fantastic). Cincinnati plays a slightly more up-tempo game than Pittsburgh -- 172 plays per game compared to 165 -- but other than that these teams near-mirrors of each other efficiency-wise. TFG is calling this one a coin toss with the slight edge going to Cincinnati: 31-27, Bearcats, with a 50.6% chance of being right.
Eddie: Expect a clean game with that matches an efficient (12) Pittsburgh running game against an extremely good (5) Cincinnati passing game. Neither team makes a lot of mistakes, averaging fewer than one turnover per game. Pitt is a little better at taking the ball away, though. Home field advantage says this one is close. Pittsburgh tries to slow the game down by grinding out long drives on the ground, but Cincinnati pulls off the undefeated season 21-20.
The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week
West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Eddie: Do you go with the traditionally downtrodden (37) Rutgers or Bill Stewart-coached (24) West Virginia? The real idiot is anybody who claims to know how this game turns out at all. Neither option is particularly appealing in a game that RBA predicts with only 54.6% confidence. West Virginia is a little more consistent on the scoreboard, but unfortunately, that's because they consistently turn the ball over. Rutgers averages 2.6 takeaways per game to match WVU's 2.2 turnovers per game. Expect West Virginia to play better in all facets of the game but keep shooting themselves in the foot as Rutgers squeaks by in the home upset, 25-24.
Justin: Idiot games were slim pickins this week, as RBA and TFG disagree on only two games and we thought it would be tough to get people worked up over (105) Florida-Atlantic and (108) Florida-International. Instead we have the (29) Mountaineers visiting the (36) Scarlet Knights. West Virginia has played better ball on both sides against stronger opposition than the Knights. The lines for this game give a slight nod to Rutgers, but TFG likes the Mountaineers. West Virginia plays more efficient offense by 0.4 PPH and more efficient defense by 1.0 PPH. It's a narrow margin but should give the Mountaineers a slim nod in this matchup. Home field advantage isn't as big a factor in December as it is in September, so Rutgers won't get a big bump from playing at home. WVU takes this one, 27-24.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers
Justin: All signs point to the winner of this game earning the right to lose to the Big Ten runner-up. This game will also tell us how far the (21) Tigers and (24) Yellow Jackets have come since the start of the season. Tech defeated Clemson back in September, 30-27, in Atlanta. As far as TFG is concerned, though, that game (a) is now irrelevant, and (b) what does count falls under the category of a victory for Clemson once home field advantage is factored out. Now that 10 games have passed and they're playing on a neutral field, can Clemson put it together and pull off the victory? TFG says "yes, but just barely." Final score: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 31 in a game that shows little defense but some explosive offense.
Eddie: As dominating as (17) Georgia Tech has been on offense, they sure didn't show it last week against Georgia, so RBA thinks they're not that good against quality competition. (13) Clemson has played pretty well this year but has been unlucky in close losses. When comparing the two teams on paper, Clemson's offense and defense simply don't fall off as quickly against tougher competition. Clemson is a little more clumsy with the ball, but Georgia Tech isn't quite as good at forcing turnovers. They've played a close game once already, so expect Clemson to be ready to stop the flexbone and win a good one, 28-24.
Full predictions after the jump.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | Home | Visitors | Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (4) | Alabama | 24 | (1) | Florida | 31 | 67.5 | (6) | Alabama | 14 | (4) | Florida | 20 | 50.9 |
| (9) | Boise St. | 44 | (120) | New Mexico St. | 17 | 99.4 | (3) | Boise St. | 56 | (116) | New Mexico St. | 7 | 93.6 |
| (21) | Clemson | 34 | (24) | Georgia Tech | 31 | 52.3 | (13) | Clemson | 28 | (17) | Georgia Tech | 24 | 61.7 |
| (38) | Connecticut | 31 | (72) | South Florida | 24 | 69.6 | (38) | Connecticut | 31 | (58) | South Florida | 21 | 52.8 |
| (108) | FIU | 31 | (105) | FL-Atlantic | 35 | 55.4 | (100) | FIU | 31 | (93) | FL-Atlantic | 28 | 54.3 |
| (90) | Hawaii | 24 | (37) | Wisconsin | 35 | 82.1 | (81) | Hawaii | 24 | (33) | Wisconsin | 35 | 69.8 |
| (76) | Illinois | 27 | (57) | Fresno St. | 31 | 60.3 | (97) | Illinois | 21 | (43) | Fresno St. | 31 | 74.6 |
| (70) | LA Tech | 31 | (115) | SJSU | 20 | 88.4 | (78) | LA Tech | 28 | (113) | SJSU | 10 | 57.8 |
| (14) | Nebraska | 24 | (3) | Texas | 35 | 75.9 | (21) | Nebraska | 10 | (1) | Texas | 24 | 73.7 |
| (18) | Pittsburgh | 27 | (17) | Cincinnati | 31 | 50.6 | (12) | Pittsburgh | 20 | (5) | Cincinnati | 21 | 67.8 |
| (36) | Rutgers | 24 | (29) | West Virginia | 27 | 56.4 | (37) | Rutgers | 25 | (24) | West Virginia | 24 | 54.6 |
| (10) | USC | 31 | (28) | Arizona | 24 | 71.2 | (27) | USC | 28 | (30) | Arizona | 24 | 57.4 |
| (71) | Washington | 24 | (43) | California | 31 | 68.7 | (68) | Washington | 24 | (42) | California | 31 | 70.4 |
