Friday, January 15, 2010

2009 - 2010: Final Top 25 -- TFG

The dust has settled, the title game has been played, your champions crowned, and we have our final TFG Top 25 for the 2009 - 2010 season.  You final #1 team this year is .....

Rank
+/-
Team
WinPct
SoS
Off Pts
Def Pts
Pace
001
--
Florida
0.9523
0.6368
29.3
9.7
78.6
002
--
TCU
0.9470
0.5019
24.3
8.4
84.9
003
--
Alabama
0.9466
0.6488
25.2
8.7
80.5
004
--
Texas
0.9308
0.5410
28.0
10.7
86.5
005
--
Ohio St.
0.9291
0.5645
21.3
8.2
83.6
006
+2
Virginia Tech
0.9042
0.5929
25.3
11.0
81.1
007
-1
Oklahoma
0.9001
0.6799
20.8
9.2
91.1
008
+1
Boise St.
0.8956
0.3860
25.3
11.4
85.5
009
-2
Penn State
0.8887
0.5537
20.7
9.6
82.3
010
+4
Nebraska
0.8684
0.5555
19.3
9.6
82.3
011
+2
Iowa
0.8392
0.5800
19.7
10.7
81.9
012
-1
USC
0.8326
0.5635
19.7
10.8
85.4
013
-3
Texas Tech
0.8263
0.5739
25.5
14.3
90.3
014
-2
Oregon
0.8256
0.6321
22.7
12.8
92.7
015
--
LSU
0.8253
0.6216
19.7
11.1
82.9
016
+3
BYU
0.7935
0.4673
23.0
14.0
85.5
017
-1
Utah
0.7791
0.4587
20.5
12.9
87.0
018
--
Pittsburgh
0.7741
0.5675
22.2
14.1
83.3
019
-2
Cincinnati
0.7589
0.5733
22.7
14.8
87.8
020
+3
Mississippi
0.7503
0.6132
20.6
13.7
83.2
021
NA
Air Force
0.7418
0.4672
18.2
12.3
84.6
022
--
Clemson
0.7412
0.6032
20.3
13.8
84.1
023
-3
Miami-FL
0.7386
0.6430
20.6
14.0
83.9
024
-3
Georgia Tech
0.7264
0.6472
25.9
18.0
80.0
025
--
Arkansas
0.7230
0.6376
24.3
17.0
85.2

the Florida Gators??

New entries: Air Force.

Dropped out: Oregon State.

So after getting hammered by Alabama by a score of 32-13 in the SEC title game, how does Florida remain atop the Tempo-Free Gridiron rankings?  On top of that, how does TCU -- a team that lost their bowl game -- end up ranked ahead of Alabama?  The short answer?  Brian Kelly and six of TCU's regular-season opponents.

The computer had no idea that the Bearcats head coach took the Notre Dame job and left Cincinnati adrift.  I stand by original statement that Florida would dismantle Cincinnati, just not deliver the 51-24 pounding that we saw.  The computer assumed a normal, prepared, and motivated opponent for Florida, one that was top 25 material at the end of the season.  Clearly that team didn't show up, although even if a more disciplined Cincinnati team had taken the field TFG has doubts that they would have done any better.

I discussed a few weeks ago why TFG still had the Gators at #1 going into the bowl season, even after their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  It boiled down to a single game against the Crimson Tide not being able to undo a season's worth of total domination by the Gators and solid but occasionally rocky play by Alabama (see: Tennessee).  Unfortunately for Alabama, Florida drew a weak Bearcat team in the Sugar Bowl and then saw their opponent fall apart when their coach left.  Had the Gators actually pummeled a fully-prepared Cincy squad -- which TFG predicted as being within the realm of possibility -- then I'd feel more comfortable in my choice of Florida as the 2009-2010 TFG Champions.  Unfortunately we'll never know what would have happened, just what did happen in that car-accident-of-a-Sugar-Bowl.

So Florida trounces their opponent in order to stay ahead of Alabama.  TCU loses to Boise State and .. stays ahead of Alabama?  How does that work?

In short, TCU lost, but the teams they played earlier in the season went 6-0 in their bowl games.  Utah, Clemson, Air Force, BYU, Wyoming, and Southern Methodist all won, making TCU's victories over those teams -- especially their wins over Wyoming, Utah, and BYU -- all the more impressive.  Not to mention that in the Fiesta Bowl the Horned Frogs actually held high-flying Boise State to 17 points, their lowest score of the year.  It was just an unfortunate coincidence that TCU decided to have their most anemic offensive showing of the year on the same night, putting up only 10 points in 170 possessions for a raw offensive efficiency of 5.9 PPH.  Their previous low for the season was 8.5 PPH back in September against Clemson.

Which brings us to your BCS National Champions, the (3) Alabama Crimson Tide.  They finish the season more or less as they started it: with a top-10 offense but one of the most impressive defenses in the land, allowing a mere 8.7 PPH.  There may be something to the saying that defense wins championships (or at least bowl games), but that's a post for another day.  Instead I'll just leave you with the final 2009 - 2010 Tempo-Free Gridiron rankings.