Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA

It's performance review time at work, so things are running a little behind this week.  Without further ado, we have this week's RBA Top 25.


Rank+/-TeamWinPctSoSOff PtsDef PtsPace
001--Alabama0.95930.546525.96.579.0
002--Oregon0.95160.533829.48.187.7
003+2Stanford0.94280.553428.98.684.2
004+2Florida0.92520.556924.78.380.9
005-2Ohio St.0.92340.533925.28.680.0
006-2TCU0.91970.463225.08.684.8
007+6Virginia Tech0.91580.535321.47.679.1
008+7Iowa0.91500.521020.27.282.2
009-2LSU0.90020.543719.37.480.5
010--Arizona0.89780.559822.28.683.2
011-3Nebraska0.89190.529923.19.283.6
012--Penn State0.88390.539716.66.981.9
013-2Boise St.0.87740.457326.111.184.9
014+7Miami-FL0.87370.552919.78.581.2
015-1California0.85320.532627.812.984.3
016--Georgia0.85120.553824.211.379.9
017-8Texas0.84630.516821.110.184.1
018+1Utah0.83840.461122.711.183.4
019+21Florida St.0.83760.555722.511.083.5
020+2Mississippi St.0.82540.562619.810.180.7
021+3USC0.81110.533722.812.183.5
022-2Arkansas0.80970.565722.111.882.4
023-5Oklahoma0.79650.545520.811.584.6
024-7South Carolina0.79050.549418.510.478.9
025+5Nevada0.77970.467125.314.685.3


New entries:  Florida State, Nevada

Dropped out:  Air Force, Georgia Tech

Week 5 is the time when RBA tends to stabilize.  Alabama's narrow escape from Fayetteville (*grumble grumble*) has narrowed the gap between Alabama and Oregon.  Meanwhile, comparatively weak performances by Ohio State and TCU allowed Stanford and Florida to leapfrog them.  The Buckeyes and Horned Frogs are still within striking distance but need to match Alabama's defense or make a push offensively to catch up.

Georgia holds steady at #16 after dropping to 1-3 (0-3 SEC).  I'm sure people are going to use this to argue that the entire system is invalid.  The top 25 is based upon each team's performance against a neutral opponent of 0.500 strength.  Georgia has a tendency to blow out weak opponents but struggle against strong opponents, so it has a significant slope on their offensive and defensive efficiencies.  In fact, Georgia's offensive drop-off (36.8PPH) is the third worst in the NCAA, behind only Cal (46.3 PPH!) and Wake Forest (38.7 PPH).  In other words, yes, Georgia is over-ranked, but RBA will predict them to lose to most the other teams in the top 25.