| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | TCU | 0.9502 | 0.4429 | 26.7 | 7.6 | 81.3 |
| 002 | +1 | Boise St. | 0.9245 | 0.3745 | 29.3 | 10.1 | 82.1 |
| 003 | -1 | Alabama | 0.9173 | 0.6186 | 27.3 | 9.8 | 78.0 |
| 004 | +6 | Oklahoma | 0.8870 | 0.6270 | 23.2 | 9.7 | 91.4 |
| 005 | -1 | Ohio St. | 0.8808 | 0.4668 | 24.4 | 10.5 | 81.2 |
| 006 | -- | Florida | 0.8720 | 0.6508 | 27.2 | 12.2 | 79.1 |
| 007 | -2 | Iowa | 0.8684 | 0.5419 | 22.2 | 9.9 | 81.9 |
| 008 | -1 | Virginia Tech | 0.8563 | 0.5758 | 28.2 | 13.2 | 79.4 |
| 009 | -- | LSU | 0.8561 | 0.6394 | 24.0 | 11.3 | 79.6 |
| 010 | -2 | Nebraska | 0.8511 | 0.4966 | 24.0 | 11.5 | 80.3 |
| 011 | -- | Oregon | 0.8472 | 0.5535 | 25.3 | 12.3 | 91.8 |
| 012 | +1 | Texas | 0.8119 | 0.5716 | 24.2 | 13.1 | 83.1 |
| 013 | -1 | Utah | 0.8075 | 0.3240 | 25.7 | 14.2 | 82.3 |
| 014 | +1 | Stanford | 0.7930 | 0.6369 | 28.8 | 16.3 | 81.9 |
| 015 | -1 | Arizona | 0.7735 | 0.5852 | 20.2 | 12.0 | 82.9 |
| 016 | +1 | Auburn | 0.7710 | 0.5809 | 25.3 | 15.2 | 85.0 |
| 017 | +5 | USC | 0.7680 | 0.5496 | 23.2 | 14.0 | 83.2 |
| 018 | -2 | South Carolina | 0.7587 | 0.6883 | 22.6 | 13.9 | 79.8 |
| 019 | NA | North Carolina | 0.7429 | 0.6132 | 21.4 | 13.5 | 80.0 |
| 020 | +4 | Missouri | 0.7414 | 0.4813 | 20.3 | 12.9 | 86.3 |
| 021 | -- | Miami-FL | 0.7410 | 0.6405 | 20.5 | 13.1 | 85.9 |
| 022 | NA | Georgia | 0.7388 | 0.5762 | 25.3 | 16.4 | 76.5 |
| 023 | -3 | Florida St. | 0.7249 | 0.5979 | 24.3 | 16.3 | 81.5 |
| 024 | -1 | Cincinnati | 0.7224 | 0.5565 | 22.1 | 14.8 | 84.9 |
| 025 | NA | West Virginia | 0.7146 | 0.5001 | 19.9 | 13.5 | 81.8 |
New entries: North Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia.
Dropped out: Arkansas, Oregon State, California.
TCU stomped a hapless BYU team to further solidify their hold on the top spot. And before anyone brings up the strength of schedule argument, TFG says the schedule the Horned Frogs have played so far is on par with that played by (5) Ohio State, and I'm not sure anyone would accuse the Buckeyes of sandbagging it. Boise State continues to dismantle every opponent they face, but in the end the question will be whether or not that's enough. Even after their loss to South Carolina, (3) Alabama remains a formidable opponent; TFG still tips them as the best team in the SEC, even with that one entry in the loss column.
If one were to only go by the rankings and not the EWP, you might notice some odd results. Florida loses to barely-top-40 Mississippi State yet doesn't drop? Iowa wins by 10 on the road but slips two spots? Virginia Tech wins by 30+, but (a) drops one spot, and (b) is still in the top 10 after losing to JMU at home? How does all of that work?
This is where looking at the EWP of a team and not just their rank comes in handy. Yes, (6) Florida lost to (37) Mississippi State, but did hold the Bulldogs to 10 points and, as such, get credit for defensive prowess. Their offense, however, takes a hit and the overall effect is a week-to-week net EWP of nearly -0.0100 (a noticeable shift). (7) Iowa rings up 38 on (40) Michigan on the road, but the truth of the matter is that the Hawkeyes allowed Michigan to score 28; their top-tier defense should have held the Wolverines to 24 or even 21, and as a result their net EWP is around -0.0230. The (8) Hokies allowed (78) Wake Forest to score 21 points on them; this drops their EWP by about 0.0090 and their ranking one spot.
In other news, the first BCS rankings are out and your top three teams are Oklahoma, Oregon, and Boise State. TFG is a big fan of (4) Oklahoma, although they're admittedly in the first row of the second section. TFG is significantly less sold on the (11) Ducks, though. Oregon plays fast -- over 180 plays per game (PPG) -- a fact that tends to get lost in the noise. It's a big-stage version of what happened to Houston last year. The Cougars combined a quick pace with a solid-but-not-spectacular offense and rung up boatloads of points on their opponents. This combination worked well until they got paired against one of the worst possible opponents in their bowl game: a low-speed, highly efficient Air Force defense that exposed them. You could even draw parallels between this year's Oregon team and last year's; those Ducks played fast and relatively efficiently, but got overwhelmed by a deliberate and efficient Ohio State defense in the Rose Bowl. The most likely candidate to do that in the regular season is (17) USC with a 14.0 PPH defense and a 166 PPG pace; the game is in LA, too, which means a slight boost for the Trojan defense.
In the meantime, we'll be here to look under the hood and give you the low-down on the actual strengths and weaknesses of the top contenders.
