| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | TCU | 0.9958 | 0.4653 | 25.4 | 5.7 | 84.3 |
| 002 | -- | Oregon | 0.9873 | 0.5314 | 28.8 | 9.9 | 87.8 |
| 003 | -- | Alabama | 0.9786 | 0.5509 | 25.0 | 7.4 | 78.8 |
| 004 | +1 | Stanford | 0.9610 | 0.5494 | 26.6 | 12.3 | 84.0 |
| 005 | -1 | Iowa | 0.9522 | 0.5207 | 19.7 | 7.8 | 82.0 |
| 006 | +4 | Florida | 0.9444 | 0.5551 | 24.8 | 8.1 | 80.9 |
| 007 | +2 | Boise St. | 0.9404 | 0.4586 | 27.2 | 9.8 | 84.7 |
| 008 | -1 | Virginia Tech | 0.9270 | 0.5313 | 24.1 | 9.0 | 79.2 |
| 009 | -3 | Nebraska | 0.9267 | 0.5292 | 24.0 | 10.7 | 83.6 |
| 010 | +1 | Ohio St. | 0.9261 | 0.5292 | 25.3 | 8.5 | 79.8 |
| 011 | -3 | Oklahoma | 0.9130 | 0.5452 | 22.6 | 8.7 | 85.0 |
| 012 | -- | LSU | 0.9083 | 0.5484 | 18.1 | 7.5 | 80.4 |
| 013 | -- | Auburn | 0.8821 | 0.5459 | 25.8 | 12.9 | 79.4 |
| 014 | +3 | Arkansas | 0.8816 | 0.5632 | 23.9 | 11.3 | 82.5 |
| 015 | -- | USC | 0.8728 | 0.5327 | 23.6 | 13.1 | 83.5 |
| 016 | -- | Georgia | 0.8640 | 0.5501 | 27.4 | 10.6 | 79.8 |
| 017 | -3 | Arizona | 0.8546 | 0.5550 | 19.7 | 9.4 | 83.2 |
| 018 | -- | Florida St. | 0.8423 | 0.5523 | 18.6 | 11.6 | 83.5 |
| 019 | +9 | Oklahoma St. | 0.8348 | 0.5465 | 24.1 | 14.0 | 85.7 |
| 020 | +1 | North Carolina | 0.8276 | 0.5468 | 19.7 | 7.4 | 81.9 |
| 021 | +8 | Nevada | 0.8133 | 0.4632 | 24.6 | 15.8 | 85.2 |
| 022 | -- | Miami-FL | 0.8000 | 0.5501 | 15.9 | 9.8 | 81.5 |
| 023 | -4 | South Carolina | 0.8000 | 0.5443 | 18.3 | 10.9 | 78.9 |
| 024 | +6 | Wisconsin | 0.7991 | 0.5355 | 21.0 | 13.6 | 81.3 |
| 025 | -- | Pittsburgh | 0.7939 | 0.5326 | 23.0 | 11.6 | 82.4 |
New entries: Oklahoma State, Nevada, Wisconsin
Dropped out: Missouri, Texas, Utah
Not all losses are created equal. (3) Alabama loses 0.0044 for losing a close one to (12) LSU, but (9) Nebraska loses 0.0172 EWP for narrowly beating (63) Iowa State. Meanwhile, (31) Utah tumbles down 0.0804 EWP for getting annihilated at home by (1) TCU. These games illustrate a few key points about RBA and its ranking mechanism.
First, Alabama performed about as well as expected. RBA expected a 24-21 Alabama victory, but LSU won 24-17. In other words, Alabama underperformed by four points and LSU outperformed by three points. This isn't a world-changing loss. Efficiencies are adjusted, as you would expect. Alabama's offense goes from 35.3 +/- 20.2 PPH to 35.8 +/- 21.4 PPH. Their defense goes from 3.5 +/- 7.4 PPH to 2.8 +/- 9.1 PPH. Their offense and defense become slightly less consistent, but they are still extremely good. Therefore, Alabama stays about where they are.
Second, Nebraska played an unnecessarily tight game against Iowa State. RBA expected a 38-20 Nebraska victory but got a 31-30 overtime settled by a perfect fake with an atrocious throw. By allowing more points than expected to a terrible team, Nebraska's defense downgraded from 5.5 +/- 9.0 PPH to 6.3 +/- 8.7 PPH. Against top competition, consistently sound defense is important, so Nebraska drops despite winning.
Finally, Utah got throttled by TCU at home. RBA didn't expect a win, but it certainly didn't expect 41-7. Utah's defense took a huge hit, jumping from 0.7 +/- 20.9 PPH to 0 +/- 27.3 PPH. This means that a 160 play game against 0.900 EWP competition (top 12) can expect to score 9.1 more points than last week. Likewise, their offense takes a dive from 37.1 +/- 24.1 PPH to 38.9 +/- 28.9 PPH. All this adds up to a severe drop in EWP
