| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | TCU | 0.9512 | 0.4553 | 28.3 | 8.1 | 80.7 |
| 002 | -- | Boise St. | 0.9443 | 0.3980 | 30.4 | 9.1 | 82.5 |
| 003 | +1 | Alabama | 0.9210 | 0.6316 | 26.8 | 9.4 | 78.1 |
| 004 | -1 | Ohio St. | 0.9182 | 0.5176 | 26.8 | 9.6 | 79.9 |
| 005 | +2 | Virginia Tech | 0.8695 | 0.5672 | 27.7 | 12.3 | 79.6 |
| 006 | -- | Oregon | 0.8680 | 0.5542 | 25.1 | 11.4 | 93.0 |
| 007 | +1 | Oklahoma | 0.8551 | 0.5815 | 22.9 | 10.8 | 91.0 |
| 008 | -3 | LSU | 0.8509 | 0.6181 | 24.8 | 11.8 | 78.3 |
| 009 | -- | Iowa | 0.8460 | 0.5827 | 21.2 | 10.2 | 81.3 |
| 010 | -- | Florida | 0.8365 | 0.6478 | 25.1 | 12.7 | 81.1 |
| 011 | +2 | Stanford | 0.8116 | 0.5652 | 28.2 | 15.2 | 81.7 |
| 012 | -1 | Nebraska | 0.8053 | 0.5007 | 23.2 | 12.8 | 79.6 |
| 013 | -1 | Auburn | 0.7991 | 0.6234 | 27.1 | 15.2 | 83.7 |
| 014 | +1 | South Carolina | 0.7836 | 0.6571 | 25.0 | 14.5 | 79.2 |
| 015 | -1 | Arkansas | 0.7792 | 0.6058 | 27.3 | 16.0 | 83.0 |
| 016 | +2 | Wisconsin | 0.7614 | 0.5266 | 27.3 | 16.7 | 79.9 |
| 017 | -1 | Miami-FL | 0.7542 | 0.6391 | 20.5 | 12.8 | 85.1 |
| 018 | -1 | Utah | 0.7502 | 0.4205 | 23.7 | 15.0 | 81.0 |
| 019 | +1 | Missouri | 0.7502 | 0.5554 | 20.0 | 12.4 | 85.5 |
| 020 | +1 | Oklahoma St. | 0.7435 | 0.4993 | 23.6 | 15.2 | 89.3 |
| 021 | +1 | Florida St. | 0.7387 | 0.6012 | 23.9 | 15.5 | 82.3 |
| 022 | +1 | Arizona | 0.7313 | 0.5919 | 19.3 | 12.7 | 85.2 |
| 023 | +2 | Georgia | 0.7282 | 0.6267 | 26.2 | 17.3 | 76.7 |
| 024 | -- | West Virginia | 0.7248 | 0.5205 | 18.2 | 12.1 | 82.6 |
| 025 | NA | Clemson | 0.7188 | 0.5775 | 17.8 | 11.9 | 81.5 |
New arrivals: Clemson.
Dropped out: USC.
TCU remains the clear number 1, although Boise State gains ground after pummeling a hapless Fresno State team. Since we only consider games again I-A opponents, Alabama effectively had a bye week here, while Ohio State snuck by a good Iowa team. From there we see a huge drop-off (around 500 points) to (5) Virginia Tech. The Hokies continue to perform well, even after flubbing a home game against JMU early in the season. (6) Oregon had a bye week and remains in a virtual tie with Virginia Tech for the title of "best of the rest".
For the second year in a row TFG continues to give love to (7) Oklahoma, even as the human pollsters rate the Sooners out of the top 10. (8) LSU survived a scare against Mississippi, but drops a full 1.1 PPH on the defensive efficiency side. (9) Iowa gave the Buckeyes all they could handle but couldn't pull off the win, even with home field advantage. The Hawkeyes will end up being the 7-4 team that no one wants to play in a bowl game. Florida continues to hang around the top 10 because no one else is really stepping up to bridge the gap, although (11) Stanford is certainly trying.
Clemson re-appears in the top 25 yet again. I can only assume they plan to lose this week.
The big game of the week, National-Championship-wise is clearly going to be the Auburn-Alabama game. TFG isn't big on (12) Auburn's chances again the (3) Crimson Tide, due in large part of Alabama's defense. Auburn has played some good defenses so far this year -- namely (8) LSU and (25) Clemson -- and been held below 30 points in both games. Alabama's defense is even better, and the Tigers don't have home field advantage in this one. Auburn's defense is somewhat suspect at this point (tied for 19th in the top 25) and Alabama's offense is nearly as efficient as Auburn's. Even assuming that Auburn manages to win at Alabama -- roughly a 1-in-4 prospect -- they still have to play (14) South Carolina in the SEC title game. The Tigers will be the favorites, but just barely. Expect that game to be a coin toss. TFG pegs Auburn as having a 1-in-7 shot in escaping both games with a win, but a 1-in-3 shot of coming out with two losses.
(6) Oregon has a slightly easier road against (22) Arizona and (33) Oregon State, but should Auburn lose -- and TFG expects they will -- that opens the door to a multitude of scenarios. Will the door open for a 1-loss Wisconsin team? The current BCS rankings have TCU third and Boise State fourth; will either of these teams get a shot?
With nearly 84% probability, TFG says we'll be answering these questions in the next two weeks. Stay tuned.
