#11: Gator Bowl (January 1, 2011)
Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4, 4-4 SEC) vs. Michigan Wolverines (7-5, 3-5 Big East)
GUGS: 54.7
Justin: The press really talked up Denard Robinson at the start of the year, and there's no denying he's been impressive. The problem is that a single person doesn't make a whole offense. The (46) Wolverines play fast -- nearly 180 plays per game -- but aren't particularly efficient at only 19.6 PPH. The (39) Bulldogs don't even have that (16.5 PPH) but have an amazing defense that allows only 13.7 PPH; that's better than (10) Auburn. The Bulldogs will look to turn this into a grind'em-out, slow game, whereas Michigan will want to make this a track meet. TFG says that this one will be one of the closest bowl games, with Mississippi State taking home a 31-30 victory with 53.8% confidence.
Eddie: This is going to be a great game. (49) Michigan rides on the back of Denard Robinson to the tune of 33.6 +/- 23.0 PPH of offense, but (34) Mississippi State is quite good defensively at 5.2 +/- 12.5 PPH. Although we like to think of Michigan's offense as being explosive, it holds only a 1.0 PPH advantage over the Bulldogs. However, Michigan plays absolutely no defense whatsoever; Mississippi State holds a 7.2 PPH defensive advantage over the Wolverines. No longer the SEC West punching bag, Mississippi State should bully Michigan in a 31-24 victory with 59.9% confidence, probably knocking out Denard Robinson in the process.
#10: Cotton Bowl (January 7, 2011)
LSU Tigers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (9-3, 6-2 Big XII)
GUGS: 56.2
Eddie: (15) LSU and (28) Texas A&M have something in common: defensive consistency. The Tigers hold a slight 1.6 PPH edge, but that falls into the range of statistical noise. However, LSU holds a 4.5 PPH offensive advantage. Together, these add up into a respectable advantage. RBA says that LSU should win a tough defensive game, 27-21, with 73.0% confidence.
Justin: This is another game that, on its face, looks competitive; Vegas also thinks it'll be close since the (9) Tigers are only 1-point favorites. TFG thinks otherwise, as LSU has a 5.7 PPH advantage on offense and a 1.5 PPH advantage on defense over the (30) Aggies. So why is this considered a toss-up? Pace. LSU plays slow (157 plays per game) and the Aggies play fast (181 plays per game), which means the raw, unadjusted stats give the Aggies a 3.0 points per game advantage on offense. TFG sees through that, though, and taps the Tigers as 70% likely to win by about a touchdown.
#9: Sugar Bowl (January 4, 2011)
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1, 7-1 Big Ten) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
GUGS: 56.8
Justin: Depending on the most recent news out of Ohio State, we might have to toss this prediction out the window. If that ends up being a non-issue, though, we're back to this prediction: The (3) Buckeyes are every bit the equal of the (4) Alabama team that defeated (15) Arkansas at the start of the year. The Razorbacks have the 7th-best offense in FBS thanks to Ryan Mallet, but the Buckeyes have the 2nd-best defense in FBS. TFG says that defense wins games, and in this case it makes the Buckeyes 3-to-1 favorites to win, 36-31.
Eddie: I'm going to try to be as reasonable as possible here. (6) Ohio State holds a decisive 7.9 PPH defensive advantage over my (13) Razorbacks. The Hogs sport only a 1.9 PPH offensive advantage, but the Buckeyes are the 7th flakiest offensive unit in the country with a 31.3 PPH variance. If everything plays out according to plan, Ohio State should pick up their first SEC bowl victory since 1979 with a 28-24 victory at 73.1% confidence. Let's just say that I politely disagree that a team with zero wins over BCS top 25 teams has that kind of advantage over a team with four wins over BCS top 25 teams that also led two more BCS top 25 teams in the fourth quarter.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | Home | Visitors | Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (46) | Michigan | 30 | (39) | Mississippi St. | 31 | 53.8 | (49) | Michigan | 24 | (34) | Mississippi St. | 31 | 59.9 |
| (9) | LSU | 33 | (30) | Texas A&M | 27 | 69.5 | (15) | LSU | 27 | (28) | Texas A&M | 21 | 73.0 |
| (15) | Arkansas | 31 | (3) | Ohio St. | 36 | 76.3 | (13) | Arkansas | 24 | (6) | Ohio St. | 28 | 73.1 |
