Week 5: Friday Predictions

Only one game tonight, and that's not expected to be too much of a contest. BYU is playing their second consecutive Friday game and hoping for their second consecutive Friday win.

Home			Visitors			Home			Visitors
52	BYU	38	94	Utah St.	27	59	BYU	41	104	Utah St.	20

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Thursday Predictions

Two games tonight, again nothing too exciting. Pitts/USF should be somewhat exciting, but Houston/UTEP will probably be of regional interest only.

Home			Visitors			Home			Visitors
33	Pittsburgh	31	34	South Florida	28	34	Pittsburgh	24	33	South Florida	21
96	UTEP	35	63	Houston	38	100	UTEP	27	66	Houston	41

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Pick-em Update

Congratulations to LucklessWonder, a new entrant from last week, who spotted most other players a week's worth of points and is now on a charge to catch up.

Rank	Player	W - L	Pts
1	nobiology	16-4	94
2	Foreigner	16-4	90
3	ed315	13-7	88
4	georgehr	15-5	87
5	TFG	14-6	84
6	RBA	14-6	82
7	tommyallenn	13-7	79
8	LucklessWonder	7-13	47
9	eadams928	6-14	40
10	rockhopper	6-14	33
11	Deadpool	6-14	31
12	theleftybarber	3-17	12

Neither algorithm is going to dominate in any given week, but consistency is the name of the game. We're fine always being third and fourth in a given week if it means that different people rotate around as first as second. In the end we'll simply pull ahead.

We've also re-run the numbers after two weeks' worth of play and have tweaked the original point projections. Here they are:

TFG (Justin): 664 (+9)

RBA (Eddie): 662 (-3)

And in graph form:

Week 4: Saturday Recap

[ Note: Justin is on the road this week and won't have much to say about his games. ]

Week 4 is in the books, so let's look at the recap of our games of the week.

Week 4
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	34.6 -  12.4	73.6	34 -  13	72.3
RBA	33.8 -  13.2	71.9	34 -  13	72.3

Game of the Week

LSU Tigers 47, West Virginia Mountaineers 21

Justin

(5) LSU 33, (21) West Virginia 29 (64.2%)

The final score was actually less close than the actual game, which saw four West Virginia turnovers that yielded 21 points for LSU. If the Mountaineers hold onto the ball a bit better, then the game becomes much more interesting. As it was, LSU completely dominated and will look to rise in the rankings this week.

Eddie

(17) West Virginia 25, (8) LSU 24 (64.7%)

I didn't get to watch this game because my cable went out (more later), but all reviews are that LSU laid a real butt whoopin' on the Mountaineers. As predicted, the Tiger offense sputtered to 366 yards of total offense, which would rate them 83rd in the country on average. However, West Virginia provided four turnovers to the Tigers, and Tiger punter Brad Wing delivered with six kicks inside the WVU 15. All things considered, RBA predicted much of what happened. It just didn't account for how generous the Mountaineer offense and special teams would be.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Arkansas Razorbacks 14

Eddie

(2) Alabama 34, (13) Arkansas 21 (74.7%)

I told my wife, "Good news: The cable went out. Bad news: I'm happy about it." Alabama scored 21 points on special teams and defense. The Razorback defense held Trent Richardson and company to only 17 points, which is actually pretty good given that they were missing starting DEs Jake Bequette (hamstring) and Tenarius Wright (broken arm). The Hogs simply couldn't run the ball with Ronnie Wingo and take some pressure off Tyler Wilson. If Arkansas can slow down Alabama's running game, LSU should be able to do it. The question is if LSU can score on Alabama, either. We'll find out on November 5.

Justin

(1) Alabama 37, (12) Arkansas 29 (86.0%)

Apparently I over-estimated Arkansas' ability to score against Alabama. The Crimson Tide are scary good, and have a legitimate shot to displace LSU as SEC favorites and possibly even national championship favorites. The Razorbacks aren't bad by any stretch of the imagination, it was just that they ran into an absolute brick wall.

Shootout of the Week

Boise State Broncos 41, Tulsa Golden Hurricane 21

Justin

(2) Boise St. 43, (52) Tulsa 26 (93.2%)

Off by 2 (Boise) and 5 (Tulsa). I can live with this prediction. In the meantime I'll see about finding more interesting matchups in the coming weeks.

Eddie

(4) Boise St. 49, (59) Tulsa 17 (89.8%)

Poor, poor Tulsa. They scored 14 in the 4th quarter to make it respectable, but Boise State opened a can of whoop ass on them. The Broncos pulled Kellen Moore in the 3rd quarter and still hung 41 on the Golden Hurricane. They scored 34 before the Golden Hurricane sniffed the end zone. This game was every bit the shootout we expected it to be. I attribute the score difference to Boise State pulling their starters so early.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

North Texas Mean Green 24, Indiana Hoosiers 21

Eddie

(108) North Texas 31, (96) Indiana 28 (59.7%)

I'm not even going to pretend that I knew how this game was going to turn out. I sent a text message to Justin bragging that the Mean Green were leading 21-0 at the half and that I was well on my way to victory. Then, the Hoosiers went on a 21 point run in the 4th quarter. Needless to say, I'm happy to finally win a toss-up. Even with all the mess, RBA managed to get the exact margin of victory -- three points in favor of North Texas, 24-21.

Justin

(98) Indiana 36, (108) North Texas 35 (57.5%)

Chalk one up for RBA. Fortunately we split the other games on which our systems disagreed, 2-1 in my favor, so I didn't lose any more ground for the season tally. Plus I'm still up one in the coin toss games. On to next week!

Coin Toss Record: TFG 2, RBA 1.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	134.1 -  44.9	74.9	135 -  44	75.4
TFG	136.1 -  42.9	76.0	132 -  47	73.7

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Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Temple (0.126); Michigan (0.107); Cincinnati (0.074); Michigan St. (0.062); SMU (0.059)

Biggest drops: Maryland (-0.115); North Carolina St. (-0.099); Western Michigan (-0.080); Army (-0.071); Central Michigan (-0.069)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG

The Tempo-Free Giridon is on the road this week, so the top 25 will be presented in abbreviated form. We'll be back up to speed later in the week.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.952	0.580	25	31.0	1	9.4	1	157.0	116
2	--	Boise St.	0.908	0.472	77	29.6	5	11.8	4	164.4	76
3	+3	Florida	0.906	0.521	48	27.8	9	11.3	2	163.1	83
4	-1	Stanford	0.902	0.501	59	30.7	2	12.6	6	160.3	101
5	--	LSU	0.893	0.682	2	29.7	4	12.7	8	160.5	99
6	-2	Oklahoma	0.886	0.662	6	25.8	15	11.3	3	180.7	3
7	+2	Wisconsin	0.868	0.480	72	29.9	3	14.1	14	159.1	107
8	-1	Ohio St.	0.857	0.472	78	24.9	19	12.2	5	157.9	112
9	+1	TCU	0.857	0.429	90	29.3	6	14.3	15	162.8	89
10	-2	Oregon	0.850	0.636	11	27.7	10	13.9	13	185.6	1
11	--	Virginia Tech	0.841	0.478	73	24.7	20	12.7	7	156.9	117
12	+2	Texas A&M	0.791	0.594	21	22.6	30	13.3	10	176.2	12
13	-1	Arkansas	0.781	0.611	17	27.8	8	16.7	34	166.7	53
14	-1	Florida St.	0.775	0.634	12	25.8	16	15.7	25	158.6	108
15	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.774	0.562	31	25.5	18	15.5	24	183.1	2
16	--	Utah	0.774	0.510	50	24.0	22	14.6	17	165.6	65
17	+1	Nebraska	0.771	0.495	63	24.4	21	15.0	22	165.6	67
18	NA	South Carolina	0.754	0.623	13	27.1	11	17.3	40	158.4	109
19	NA	Notre Dame	0.751	0.655	8	21.1	48	13.5	11	170.9	29
20	+4	Missouri	0.748	0.618	15	21.3	43	13.8	12	172.7	20
21	-1	Georgia	0.745	0.676	3	27.1	12	17.7	42	160.4	100
22	--	Texas	0.739	0.497	62	22.7	29	14.9	20	162.9	88
23	NA	Clemson	0.737	0.615	16	21.7	39	14.4	16	166.4	56
24	NA	Penn State	0.735	0.593	22	19.7	53	13.1	9	165.3	68
25	NA	Michigan St.	0.733	0.502	57	24.0	23	16.1	31	160.3	102

New entries: South Carolina, Notre Dame, Clemson, Penn State, Michigan St..

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Auburn, West Virginia, USC, Iowa.

Lots of churn throughout the polls this week, despite Eddie's claim that TFG's rankings are pretty static. Seven of the top 10 teams shifted around, even though their relative expected winning percentages didn't change much.  Florida's absolute demolition of Kentucky keeps them in the top 5 this week, even as the Gators have yet to crack the top 10 in the human polls.

The true story here, though, is Alabama's utter dominance at the top of the polls. The Crimson Tide boast both the top offense and the top defense in the nation, but the 5th-slowest pace. Simply put, Alabama is scary right now. The are clear favorites in their remaining games and present a realistic chance to win the national championship in a little over three months.

In what many readers might point out as an oddity, Texas A&M remains ranked above Oklahoma State, even though the Cowboys defeated the Aggies. However, the game was extremely close and it wasn't truly over until the last minute. We're getting into the meat of the conference season now, and the quality of competition should really pick up. Can Florida hang with the other powers? Will anyone notice Boise? Can Alabama displace LSU in the minds of the voters? Only ten weeks until we have our answers.

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Tuesday Trivia and the TSA

Just a quick note to regular readers that I'm on the road this week and didn't have a chance to draft a Tuesday Trivia post. We don't want everyone to feel left out, so we'd like to take this moment to point everyone to some sites that pique our interest, including

Football Study Hall
Football Outsiders -- College
Statistically Speaking

And of course the site that really inspired the Tempo-Free Gridiron in the first place, we have to go back to Ken Pomeroy's site and blog.

Happy browsing, TFG fans. We'll be back up to speed later in the week.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Temple (0.253); Cincinnati (0.126); Michigan (0.104); Rutgers (0.097); Clemson (0.089)

Biggest drops: North Carolina St. (-0.396); Mississippi (-0.150); Oregon St. (-0.140); Miami-FL (-0.130); Army (-0.123)

Full rankings after the jump.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Stanford	1.000	0.544	24	26.9	2	8.7	4	167.4	48
2	--	Alabama	1.000	0.549	17	24.0	7	6.1	1	157.6	120
3	+4	Oregon	0.983	0.533	42	28.4	1	10.7	13	176.0	3
4	-1	Wisconsin	0.983	0.537	36	26.7	3	10.4	11	162.1	106
5	-1	Boise St.	0.983	0.458	97	25.6	4	9.6	7	169.2	29
6	--	TCU	0.966	0.463	92	24.5	5	12.2	26	168.2	41
7	+1	LSU	0.966	0.550	15	21.9	12	8.2	3	161.0	110
8	-3	Oklahoma	0.949	0.545	22	23.5	8	9.4	5	170.7	19
9	+2	Florida	0.932	0.551	12	23.0	10	7.9	2	161.8	107
10	-1	Oklahoma St.	0.932	0.551	13	24.5	6	13.9	44	172.5	10
11	-1	Virginia Tech	0.916	0.526	54	18.9	35	10.2	9	158.2	118
12	--	Florida St.	0.906	0.556	8	19.3	32	9.9	8	166.2	67
13	+2	Nebraska	0.904	0.530	47	21.5	15	12.8	30	167.0	59
14	--	Ohio St.	0.902	0.531	46	19.8	26	10.4	10	159.4	114
15	+4	Texas A&M	0.895	0.554	10	19.8	25	10.9	15	171.1	16
16	+11	Clemson	0.891	0.524	57	18.2	42	11.5	19	166.4	64
17	-1	Auburn	0.890	0.543	26	21.7	13	15.8	56	159.3	115
18	--	Iowa	0.870	0.525	56	19.6	28	13.2	36	164.2	90
19	-6	Arkansas	0.867	0.569	1	22.6	11	13.0	33	165.3	81
20	+9	Arizona St.	0.867	0.526	55	19.7	27	10.8	14	173.8	6
21	--	South Carolina	0.852	0.543	27	21.3	17	13.0	32	157.8	119
22	+1	Georgia	0.842	0.555	9	20.5	21	12.5	28	159.5	113
23	+8	Notre Dame	0.838	0.565	3	17.3	50	12.1	25	164.9	84
24	+2	Illinois	0.833	0.539	32	17.0	51	13.1	35	169.8	22
25	+5	Texas	0.807	0.521	60	18.8	36	11.8	23	168.0	44
26	-9	West Virginia	0.804	0.540	31	18.4	40	12.1	24	165.7	76
27	+1	Tennessee	0.802	0.543	25	21.5	14	13.9	43	160.9	111
28	-3	Mississippi St.	0.798	0.562	4	18.3	41	12.4	27	162.7	103
29	-5	USC	0.794	0.534	41	17.9	43	13.2	37	166.8	62
30	+3	Missouri	0.785	0.531	45	15.8	63	10.6	12	174.0	5
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
31	+4	Utah	0.777	0.468	88	21.3	18	11.1	17	166.0	71
32	+28	Temple	0.762	0.498	70	16.4	56	9.6	6	162.3	105
33	+5	South Florida	0.743	0.527	53	16.9	53	11.8	22	168.8	33
34	--	Pittsburgh	0.736	0.528	52	16.1	58	11.8	21	164.4	87
35	+2	Arizona	0.721	0.561	6	17.6	46	11.6	20	167.2	53
36	-4	UCF	0.716	0.462	93	15.1	78	11.2	18	164.0	93
37	+2	Penn State	0.710	0.544	23	15.2	73	11.0	16	163.4	96
38	+4	Georgia Tech	0.707	0.530	49	23.3	9	16.3	60	163.9	94
39	+11	Michigan	0.705	0.542	28	20.6	20	14.1	47	168.5	39
40	-18	Miami-FL	0.705	0.558	7	15.5	67	14.9	50	162.9	101
41	-1	Air Force	0.690	0.476	83	17.5	47	13.9	42	164.3	88
42	+7	Kansas St.	0.664	0.532	43	20.3	22	14.9	49	166.0	72
43	-2	Navy	0.661	0.437	113	18.7	38	15.0	51	159.1	117
44	+2	Texas Tech	0.652	0.528	51	20.2	23	15.4	52	178.9	1
45	-1	Michigan St.	0.645	0.541	29	19.3	30	12.9	31	167.5	47
46	-3	North Carolina	0.639	0.545	21	16.6	55	14.0	45	163.6	95
47	-11	Maryland	0.636	0.522	59	16.2	57	16.3	59	164.2	92
48	--	Baylor	0.628	0.568	2	21.4	16	17.5	75	171.6	12
49	+4	FIU	0.607	0.447	104	15.4	68	14.2	48	165.3	82
50	+13	Cincinnati	0.600	0.517	62	21.1	19	15.9	57	168.6	36
51	+1	Washington	0.596	0.550	14	20.1	24	16.4	61	168.4	40
52	-1	Kentucky	0.570	0.547	19	15.0	79	13.4	38	165.8	75
53	-8	California	0.557	0.536	37	17.5	48	15.8	54	167.9	45
54	+1	Louisville	0.550	0.493	72	15.2	76	13.0	34	166.9	61
55	+1	Washington St.	0.545	0.535	39	19.0	34	17.2	70	172.7	9
56	+3	Tulsa	0.540	0.469	87	19.2	33	17.0	69	170.6	20
57	+8	Vanderbilt	0.535	0.554	11	13.7	90	12.5	29	161.6	109
58	-11	SDSU	0.532	0.496	71	15.9	62	15.8	55	168.9	32
59	-5	BYU	0.526	0.484	76	15.7	65	13.4	40	169.5	25
60	-2	Southern Miss.	0.509	0.486	75	17.5	49	17.0	68	168.5	38
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
61	-4	Nevada	0.496	0.468	89	19.3	31	18.1	80	170.3	21
62	-1	Hawaii	0.496	0.471	85	19.6	29	20.1	95	171.2	15
63	-1	Connecticut	0.478	0.469	86	13.3	94	13.4	39	166.1	68
64	-44	North Carolina St.	0.472	0.529	50	15.9	61	17.9	78	167.0	57
65	-1	Northern Ill.	0.466	0.445	107	17.6	45	20.0	94	163.4	97
66	+1	Houston	0.461	0.476	82	18.6	39	19.5	90	175.1	4
67	+5	Northwestern	0.416	0.514	63	13.4	92	15.5	53	177.2	2
68	+10	Fresno St.	0.414	0.491	74	18.7	37	20.2	96	165.9	73
69	-1	Iowa St.	0.413	0.540	30	13.8	89	14.1	46	168.5	37
70	+14	Rutgers	0.402	0.512	65	15.6	66	16.7	65	165.0	83
71	--	Toledo	0.402	0.446	105	16.1	59	18.4	82	168.1	43
72	+3	Ohio	0.398	0.434	115	15.3	71	19.2	87	161.8	108
73	+1	Colorado	0.393	0.561	5	15.4	69	17.7	76	168.7	35
74	-4	Syracuse	0.391	0.549	16	14.5	80	16.7	66	163.2	100
75	+5	LA Tech	0.355	0.502	69	14.2	84	16.0	58	172.4	11
76	-3	Western Michigan	0.354	0.455	98	15.3	72	17.2	72	169.8	24
77	+2	Troy	0.352	0.440	111	16.8	54	19.7	93	171.0	18
78	-1	UCLA	0.346	0.547	20	15.2	75	17.9	79	167.3	51
79	+8	SMU	0.339	0.480	78	14.5	81	18.5	83	165.9	74
80	+6	Duke	0.330	0.535	38	15.9	60	19.1	85	166.7	63
81	+2	East Carolina	0.327	0.481	77	17.7	44	20.6	98	169.8	23
82	-16	Oregon St.	0.315	0.548	18	13.6	91	16.9	67	171.3	14
83	-1	Boston College	0.312	0.530	48	10.0	112	13.4	41	167.3	50
84	-3	Virginia	0.304	0.531	44	14.2	83	17.8	77	164.2	91
85	--	Arkansas St.	0.296	0.433	116	13.0	96	16.5	63	162.8	102
86	-17	Mississippi	0.268	0.523	58	13.3	93	16.6	64	163.3	99
87	+1	Kansas	0.259	0.537	34	17.0	52	24.5	115	171.5	13
88	+1	Tulane	0.237	0.466	90	11.2	102	21.8	103	168.7	34
89	+2	Purdue	0.234	0.535	40	12.0	100	17.4	73	173.2	8
90	+3	Minnesota	0.225	0.537	35	13.9	85	17.5	74	167.0	56
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
91	-15	Army	0.225	0.460	94	13.9	88	19.2	88	162.6	104
92	+2	Wyoming	0.217	0.517	61	12.1	99	19.1	86	167.0	60
93	+2	Bowling Green	0.216	0.441	109	15.4	70	19.6	92	169.1	31
94	-2	Wake Forest	0.211	0.513	64	15.2	74	19.6	91	167.4	49
95	-5	Miami-OH	0.185	0.446	106	11.1	103	16.5	62	165.7	77
96	+4	Middle Tenn.	0.183	0.412	120	13.2	95	23.0	112	167.5	46
97	-1	Indiana	0.180	0.538	33	13.9	86	21.1	100	169.3	27
98	+7	Ball St.	0.177	0.450	100	12.8	98	19.5	89	165.4	80
99	-2	Rice	0.170	0.477	81	14.3	82	22.5	111	169.5	26
100	-1	UTEP	0.167	0.448	101	13.9	87	23.0	113	171.1	17
101	+3	SJSU	0.145	0.502	68	10.7	108	20.9	99	167.2	52
102	+1	LA-Lafayette	0.140	0.426	119	15.2	77	21.9	106	167.0	58
103	-2	Marshall	0.129	0.475	84	10.8	106	18.4	81	165.5	79
104	+8	Utah St.	0.114	0.503	67	15.8	64	21.9	104	168.1	42
105	-3	Idaho	0.114	0.459	95	11.6	101	22.1	108	169.1	30
106	+1	LA-Monroe	0.103	0.440	110	11.0	104	21.6	102	166.4	65
107	-9	Central Michigan	0.096	0.448	103	10.9	105	21.2	101	173.5	7
108	-2	Kent St.	0.081	0.448	102	7.8	118	18.9	84	166.1	69
109	+1	Colorado St.	0.078	0.492	73	10.7	109	22.1	110	160.9	112
110	-1	Western Kentucky	0.070	0.443	108	10.2	111	20.5	97	159.1	116
111	-3	North Texas	0.070	0.429	118	10.6	110	22.1	109	163.4	98
112	-1	New Mexico St.	0.067	0.454	99	9.5	113	24.5	116	166.4	66
113	+1	Buffalo	0.052	0.436	114	7.9	116	17.2	71	166.0	70
114	-1	FL-Atlantic	0.051	0.438	112	8.1	115	22.0	107	164.5	86
115	+1	New Mexico	0.034	0.478	80	7.8	117	23.9	114	167.1	54
116	+1	Eastern Michigan	0.026	0.465	91	8.3	114	26.0	118	164.7	85
117	-2	UAB	0.025	0.479	79	10.8	107	21.9	105	164.3	89
118	--	Akron	0.017	0.430	117	6.3	120	25.9	117	167.1	55
119	+1	UNLV	0.008	0.504	66	13.0	97	26.2	119	165.7	78
120	-1	Memphis	0.000	0.459	96	7.4	119	27.5	120	169.2	28

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Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Stanford	1.000	0.544	24	26.9	2	8.7	4	167.4	48
2	--	Alabama	1.000	0.549	17	24.0	7	6.1	1	157.6	120
3	+4	Oregon	0.983	0.533	42	28.4	1	10.7	13	176.0	3
4	-1	Wisconsin	0.983	0.537	36	26.7	3	10.4	11	162.1	106
5	-1	Boise St.	0.983	0.458	97	25.6	4	9.6	7	169.2	29
6	--	TCU	0.966	0.463	92	24.5	5	12.2	26	168.2	41
7	+1	LSU	0.966	0.550	15	21.9	12	8.2	3	161.0	110
8	-3	Oklahoma	0.949	0.545	22	23.5	8	9.4	5	170.7	19
9	+2	Florida	0.932	0.551	12	23.0	10	7.9	2	161.8	107
10	-1	Oklahoma St.	0.932	0.551	13	24.5	6	13.9	44	172.5	10
11	-1	Virginia Tech	0.916	0.526	54	18.9	35	10.2	9	158.2	118
12	--	Florida St.	0.906	0.556	8	19.3	32	9.9	8	166.2	67
13	+2	Nebraska	0.904	0.530	47	21.5	15	12.8	30	167.0	59
14	--	Ohio St.	0.902	0.531	46	19.8	26	10.4	10	159.4	114
15	+4	Texas A&M	0.895	0.554	10	19.8	25	10.9	15	171.1	16
16	NA	Clemson	0.891	0.524	57	18.2	42	11.5	19	166.4	64
17	-1	Auburn	0.890	0.543	26	21.7	13	15.8	56	159.3	115
18	--	Iowa	0.870	0.525	56	19.6	28	13.2	36	164.2	90
19	-6	Arkansas	0.867	0.569	1	22.6	11	13.0	33	165.3	81
20	NA	Arizona St.	0.867	0.526	55	19.7	27	10.8	14	173.8	6
21	--	South Carolina	0.852	0.543	27	21.3	17	13.0	32	157.8	119
22	+1	Georgia	0.842	0.555	9	20.5	21	12.5	28	159.5	113
23	NA	Notre Dame	0.838	0.565	3	17.3	50	12.1	25	164.9	84
24	NA	Illinois	0.833	0.539	32	17.0	51	13.1	35	169.8	22
25	NA	Texas	0.807	0.521	60	18.8	36	11.8	23	168.0	44

Oddities abound in this week's RBA top 25. One-loss (3) Oregon jumps four spots over undefeated (4) Wisconsin and (5) Boise State thanks to a staggering offensive performance against Arizona. (8) Oklahoma drops three spots despite defeating (30) Missouri thanks to a lower-than-expected defensive performance. Meanwhile, (4) Texas A&M jumps four spots after losing to (10) Oklahoma State, who dropped a spot. RBA has a lot more poll mobility than TFG does, so we come to expect these things. The key to success in RBA's polls is sustained efficiency, exemplified by (1) Stanford and (2) Alabama. (3) Oregon, (4) Wisconsin, and (5) Boise State can contend for the top spot by improving their defenses.

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New entries: Clemson, Arizona St., Notre Dame, Illinois, Texas.

Dropped out: West Virginia, North Carolina St., Miami-FL, USC, Mississippi St..

Week 4: Saturday Predictions

Another Saturday, another 45 games. TFG and RBA disagree on four of these: OSU/Texas A&M, Indiana/North Texas, Virginia/Southern Miss., and West Virginia/LSU. We'll also see Boise State play Tulsa, a team that Oklahoma State played this past week; this'll give us one more "common opponent" data point to see how the Broncos stack up to BCS competition.

Home			Visitors			Home			Visitors
1	Alabama	37	12	Arkansas	29	2	Alabama	34	13	Arkansas	21
33	Arizona St.	32	23	USC	30	29	Arizona St.	28	24	USC	24
48	Arizona	28	8	Oregon	36	37	Arizona	21	7	Oregon	38
19	Auburn	49	116	FL-Atlantic	23	16	Auburn	49	113	FL-Atlantic	17
106	Ball St.	30	82	Army	34	105	Ball St.	24	76	Army	28
46	Baylor	44	100	Rice	29	48	Baylor	38	97	Rice	14
2	Boise St.	43	52	Tulsa	26	4	Boise St.	49	59	Tulsa	17
109	Buffalo	26	57	Connecticut	34	114	Buffalo	21	62	Connecticut	27
28	Clemson	29	13	Florida St.	30	27	Clemson	24	12	Florida St.	27
90	Duke	37	101	Tulane	30	86	Duke	34	89	Tulane	21
77	East Carolina	44	114	UAB	30	83	East Carolina	41	115	UAB	27
69	FIU	40	103	LA-Lafayette	29	53	FIU	38	103	LA-Lafayette	21
36	Georgia Tech	35	42	North Carolina	30	42	Georgia Tech	31	43	North Carolina	24
102	Idaho	34	74	Fresno St.	36	102	Idaho	27	78	Fresno St.	31
34	Illinois	36	59	Western Michigan	29	26	Illinois	41	73	Western Michigan	17
25	Iowa	42	110	LA-Monroe	22	18	Iowa	41	107	LA-Monroe	17
54	Kentucky	25	6	Florida	34	51	Kentucky	20	11	Florida	34
99	Marshall	22	11	Virginia Tech	36	101	Marshall	14	10	Virginia Tech	34
39	Maryland	32	56	Temple	27	36	Maryland	31	60	Temple	17
119	Memphis	28	80	SMU	39	119	Memphis	17	87	SMU	35
94	Miami-OH	33	95	Bowling Green	30	90	Miami-OH	28	95	Bowling Green	24
15	Miami-FL	36	37	Kansas St.	30	22	Miami-FL	31	49	Kansas St.	24
31	Michigan St.	38	93	Central Michigan	25	44	Michigan St.	41	98	Central Michigan	14
41	Michigan	38	60	SDSU	31	50	Michigan	34	47	SDSU	28
44	Mississippi St.	34	76	LA Tech	26	25	Mississippi St.	41	80	LA Tech	14
72	Mississippi	31	20	Georgia	38	69	Mississippi	24	23	Georgia	34
108	North Texas	35	98	Indiana	36	108	North Texas	31	96	Indiana	28
7	Ohio St.	37	75	Colorado	22	14	Ohio St.	41	74	Colorado	14
4	Oklahoma	35	24	Missouri	26	5	Oklahoma	38	33	Missouri	21
55	Oregon St.	35	84	UCLA	27	66	Oregon St.	31	77	UCLA	24
29	Penn State	46	117	Eastern Michigan	21	39	Penn State	49	117	Eastern Michigan	6
30	Pittsburgh	32	26	Notre Dame	30	34	Pittsburgh	28	31	Notre Dame	21
65	Rutgers	36	71	Ohio	32	84	Rutgers	28	75	Ohio	24
113	SJSU	32	115	New Mexico St.	28	104	SJSU	27	111	New Mexico St.	21
27	South Carolina	38	79	Vanderbilt	25	21	South Carolina	38	65	Vanderbilt	20
35	South Florida	36	97	UTEP	23	38	South Florida	45	99	UTEP	14
83	Syracuse	33	67	Toledo	32	70	Syracuse	31	71	Toledo	24
14	Texas A&M	35	17	Oklahoma St.	33	19	Texas A&M	27	9	Oklahoma St.	31
40	Texas Tech	38	50	Nevada	34	46	Texas Tech	38	57	Nevada	27
68	Troy	38	96	Middle Tenn.	30	79	Troy	34	100	Middle Tenn.	24
92	Utah St.	37	112	Colorado St.	29	112	Utah St.	27	110	Colorado St.	21
87	Virginia	32	70	Southern Miss.	33	81	Virginia	28	58	Southern Miss.	27
62	Washington	33	47	California	32	52	Washington	31	45	California	28
21	West Virginia	29	5	LSU	33	17	West Virginia	25	8	LSU	24
104	Wyoming	24	18	Nebraska	37	94	Wyoming	20	15	Nebraska	41

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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