Week 2: Saturday Matchups

We didn't get around to making this post last week, but we'll be good to go from here on out. Our featured matchups for Saturday break down into four categories:

• Game of the Week: This is the game to watch, according to our Games U Gotta See (GUGS) system. It takes into account the quality of the teams, the number of projected points scored, and the predicted closeness of the final score to quantify each and every FBS game
• Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object (UFIO) Game: This game highlights an unstoppable offense versus a defense that just won't give an inch.
• Shootout of the Week: Points are the name of the game here. The game with the highest projected combined score takes this title.
• Coin Toss of the Week: This is always a game where Eddie and I disagree on the outcome, but is projected to be agonizingly close. One of us has to be wrong, and the other gets to gloat on Sunday.

So with that we welcome you to the first set of featured matchups for the 2011-2012 college football season!

Game of the Week
South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs
GUGS Score: 63.6
Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
20	Georgia	0.732	0.689	1	27.1	10	18.1	48	156.1	120
19	South Carolina	0.734	0.642	9	26.4	14	17.6	39	159.9	108

Two top offenses and two good-but-not-great defenses meet in Athens today as the (20) Bulldogs host the (19) Gamecocks. This is the same South Carolina team that made it to the SEC finals last year, and still roughly the same Georgia team as last year. Georgia is in the unenviable position of being the team by which (3) Boise State will be measured all year, leading to Georgia fans calling Boise the real deal, other SEC fans slamming Georgia, and other bloggers not blinded by the SEC taking a more moderate tact. South Carolina is a team on the way up, and we'll have to see what happens with Georgia. TFG's best guess is that home field advantage lifts Georgia to a 37-33 victory, but only with 63% confidence.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Georgia	0.809	0.553	12	22.5	14	12.3	27	79.7	114
19	South Carolina	0.852	0.543	26	24.2	8	16.1	62	79.0	119

(24) Georgia lost last week to (3) Boise State in Atlanta, but that doesn't make them a bad team any more than (19) South Carolina's win over (81) East Carolina makes them a good team. Georgia is still as unpredictable as last year with offensive variance of 25.1 PPH and defensive variance of 28.9 PPH, respectively. They're overmatched by the Gamecocks to the tune of 2.2 PPH. However, home field advantage swings the game in favor of the Bulldogs, 29-28 with 53.4% confidence.


Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers
GUGS Score: 59.6
Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
5	Auburn	0.974	0.543	25	24.6	7	16.9	68	79.5	117
22	Mississippi St.	0.839	0.560	4	20.1	22	11.8	20	81.2	104

(5) Auburn looked awful last week, surrendering 38 to (112) Utah State, while (22) Mississippi State dismantled (115) Memphis. Although you'd think think the Bulldogs win this game hands down, RBA has a different opinion. As Justin sarcastically commented in my absence during a work trip, RBA doesn't react as aggressively to bad games as TFG, which I personally think is rational. However, thanks to graduation and summer camp, it is entirely likely that Auburn suddenly forgot how to play football and Mississippi State suddenly figured out how to score 50+ points in a game. RBA says Auburn wins 31-21 with 66.7% confidence, but this one seems like a perfect case where the algorithm needs more time to learn.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
17	Auburn	0.774	0.626	14	29.6	4	18.1	51	165.9	59
32	Mississippi St.	0.680	0.542	51	19.3	62	14.3	16	170.3	32

TFG hasn't been big on (17) Auburn for a while now, given how they managed to skate through last season with a good helping of talent and a huge helping of luck. That luck is disappearing fast, as the Tigers needed lots of help to get past (87) Utah State at home. (32) Mississippi State is a team on the rise, though, and looks to give Auburn a handful. With only one week's worth of data in the computer, Auburn still has the 4th-ranked offense in FBS, while the Bulldogs have the 16th-best defense. In reality the Tiger offense probably isn't as potent as it was last year, and the Bulldog defense is better than TFG realizes. TFG currently has host Auburn taking a reasonably easy win, 38-29, but its 73.% confident is probably too optimistic for this year's Tiger squad.


Shootout of the Week
Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates
GUGS Score: 32.0
Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
71	East Carolina	0.404	0.516	56	21.1	41	24.6	99	179.3	7
9	Virginia Tech	0.853	0.595	26	29.4	6	14.6	19	157.2	117

The good news is that this should be a fun shootout between two east coast schools with a bit of a history. The bad news is that (9) Virginia Tech will be doing most of the scoring, while (71) ECU does their best to keep up. The one hope ECU has is to use their manic pace -- nearly 180 plays per game, good for 7th-fastest in FBS -- to throw off the deliberate and glacial Hokie squad that clocks in at 157 plays per game, the fourth-slowest in FBS. Barring that, though, TFG expects Virginia Tech to pick up an easy win, 42-31, with 83.2% confidence.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
81	East Carolina	0.324	0.480	78	19.8	25	23.7	114	85.0	22
16	Virginia Tech	0.896	0.530	49	23.7	11	10.0	11	79.1	118

Both (13) Virginia Tech and (81) East Carolina looked pretty good offensively last week. Unfortunately, RBA only knows about East Carolina. The Pirates should surrender 28.4 PPH, while Virginia Tech should yield 17.8 PPH against lowly ECU. With neither defense performing particularly well, RBA says Virginia Tech goes on scoring rampage, winning 45-24 with 91.4% confidence.


Coin Toss Game of the Week
UNLV Rebels at Washington State Cougars
GUGS Score: 27.1
Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
120	Washington St.	0.000	0.538	35	10.8	107	21.5	101	86.4	9
106	UNLV	0.103	0.505	66	12.9	95	25.3	117	82.9	77

Today's toss-up is a pillow fight between (120) Washington State and (106) UNLV. They're both horrible. UNLV got blasted by Wisconsin last week. As far as RBA is concerned, the Cougars never played FCS Idaho State last week, so that 64-21 victory is nowhere to be seen. Washington State has the most consistent offense in the country. Unfortunately, it's 10.5 +/- 0.7 PPH. That's not going to help against a UNLV offense that brings 17.4 PPH. The Rebel defense is nothing to write home about at 18.0 PPH, but the Cougars simply doesn't have enough firepower to take advantage of it. RBA says UNLV wins a close one, 28-27 with 56.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
					Off.		Def.		Pace
100	Washington St.	0.219	0.641	10	15.0	98	24.9	101	165.0	65
106	UNLV	0.190	0.580	34	15.3	97	27.4	111	163.7	75

It appears that Eddie and I disagree about a few things, but this game being uninteresting except for its projected closeness is something we could agree on. Eddie's RBA says UNLV tops the worst team in all of FBS, whereas TFG says that the (100) Cougars should be able to eek out a win against the (106) Rebels. Washington State is playing at home -- crucial in the opening weeks -- and has a slightly better defense than UNLV: it only ranks 19th-worth instead of 9th-worst. This is one of those "somebody has to win" games, and TFG says it's going to be Washington State in a 36-31 plod.


Projected Saturday Results
The table below summarizes just how close we expect to be today. We only disagree on a handful of games, and are both relatively certain we'll go 32-10 with our picks this week. We'll revisit this in about 36 hours and see how accurate we were. Until then, enjoy the games!

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	32.02 -  9.98	76.24%
TFG	31.98 - 10.02	76.14%

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