It was a rough week for my predictions -- I didn't even break 70% for the first time in a while -- but let's see how this affected the top 25.
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.959 | 0.625 | 16 | 34.1 | 1 | 9.7 | 1 | 155.1 | 118 |
| 2 | -- | Boise St. | 0.912 | 0.496 | 61 | 29.3 | 5 | 11.5 | 3 | 164.0 | 76 |
| 3 | +2 | LSU | 0.909 | 0.671 | 4 | 29.8 | 4 | 11.9 | 5 | 160.8 | 100 |
| 4 | +2 | Oklahoma | 0.902 | 0.601 | 21 | 26.1 | 16 | 10.7 | 2 | 180.6 | 5 |
| 5 | -1 | Stanford | 0.901 | 0.495 | 62 | 30.9 | 3 | 12.8 | 8 | 159.8 | 103 |
| 6 | +1 | Wisconsin | 0.882 | 0.506 | 57 | 31.4 | 2 | 14.0 | 15 | 158.8 | 107 |
| 7 | -4 | Florida | 0.879 | 0.605 | 20 | 27.7 | 10 | 12.5 | 7 | 161.4 | 97 |
| 8 | +2 | Oregon | 0.859 | 0.642 | 10 | 27.8 | 9 | 13.5 | 12 | 185.5 | 1 |
| 9 | -1 | Ohio St. | 0.851 | 0.507 | 56 | 23.2 | 25 | 11.6 | 4 | 158.7 | 109 |
| 10 | -1 | TCU | 0.818 | 0.427 | 89 | 28.0 | 7 | 15.4 | 22 | 164.9 | 72 |
| 11 | -- | Virginia Tech | 0.803 | 0.524 | 48 | 22.6 | 32 | 12.9 | 9 | 157.2 | 115 |
| 12 | NA | Michigan | 0.790 | 0.476 | 70 | 27.7 | 11 | 16.3 | 30 | 160.9 | 99 |
| 13 | +10 | Clemson | 0.788 | 0.638 | 12 | 22.4 | 35 | 13.3 | 11 | 166.2 | 62 |
| 14 | +5 | Notre Dame | 0.787 | 0.646 | 7 | 22.1 | 41 | 13.1 | 10 | 170.1 | 32 |
| 15 | -3 | Texas A&M | 0.785 | 0.630 | 15 | 22.9 | 27 | 13.7 | 13 | 177.9 | 8 |
| 16 | -2 | Florida St. | 0.784 | 0.643 | 9 | 26.5 | 15 | 15.8 | 27 | 158.1 | 112 |
| 17 | -4 | Arkansas | 0.781 | 0.641 | 11 | 28.7 | 6 | 17.2 | 35 | 169.3 | 37 |
| 18 | -3 | Oklahoma St. | 0.779 | 0.553 | 38 | 25.5 | 18 | 15.4 | 23 | 182.0 | 2 |
| 19 | +2 | Georgia | 0.761 | 0.663 | 5 | 27.1 | 13 | 17.0 | 33 | 160.2 | 101 |
| 20 | +5 | Michigan St. | 0.759 | 0.563 | 32 | 23.1 | 26 | 14.6 | 17 | 160.2 | 102 |
| 21 | +1 | Texas | 0.754 | 0.486 | 66 | 22.7 | 30 | 14.5 | 16 | 163.5 | 81 |
| 22 | NA | West Virginia | 0.754 | 0.536 | 41 | 24.3 | 21 | 15.5 | 24 | 163.1 | 87 |
| 23 | -6 | Nebraska | 0.753 | 0.563 | 33 | 23.9 | 23 | 15.3 | 21 | 166.1 | 65 |
| 24 | -4 | Missouri | 0.751 | 0.606 | 19 | 21.7 | 44 | 13.9 | 14 | 171.8 | 21 |
| 25 | NA | Iowa | 0.738 | 0.521 | 49 | 24.5 | 20 | 16.2 | 29 | 167.8 | 50 |
Rankings through games of 2011-10-02
New entries: Michigan, West Virginia, Iowa.
Dropped out: Utah, South Carolina, Penn State.
The Crimson Tide solidify their hold on the top spot, with an absolutely staggering offensive efficiency of 34.1 PPH. Digging through old rankings the closest comparisons I could find were Florida with Tebow (love or hate the guy, the Gators were scary efficient with him at QB), Texas with Vince Young, and USC during their 2003-2005 blitz. Alabama isn't quite as good as these teams yet -- the Tebow Gators tipped the ratings at just north of 37.0 PPH -- but we're looking at rarefied air here. Boise managed to stay ahead of the LSU/Oklahoma/Stanford/Wisconsin pack, but just barely.
Meanwhile Florida, Ohio State, TCU, and Virginia Tech are moving in the wrong direction. The Hokies managed to stay at #11, but their WinPct dropped from 0.841 to 0.803; another week of movement like that and they'll be lucky to stay in the top 20. Clemson seems ready to shed last year's up-and-down routine; another performance like the one in Blacksburg and the Tigers will be a legitimate top-10 team (insert obligatory ACC disclaimer).
Michigan seems to be doing their best to game the system, laying an unreal beatdown on a helpless Minnesota team. I'm not necessarily convinced that the Wolverines are as good as Arkansas, Texas A&M, or Clemson, but if the Golden Gophers continue to sink then that will make this win look less and less impressive in the eyes of the computer. Oh, and some team in Indiana seems to be making a resurgence. I wonder if the national press will finally start giving them some love.
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