Week 6: Undefeated ... but for how long?

Odds as of games through 2011-10-02

Full discussion and details after the jump.

Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.959	1	0.625	16	34.1	1	9.7	1	155.1	118

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	100	Kent St.	7	at	3	Alabama	48	98.6%
2011/09/10	2	Alabama	27	at	33	Penn State	11	79.5%
2011/09/17	106	North Texas	0	at	1	Alabama	41	99.1%
2011/09/24	12	Arkansas	14	at	1	Alabama	38	86.1%
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	3	Florida	10	58.5%
2011/10/08	86	Vanderbilt	17	at	1	Alabama	42	98.5%
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	42	at	73	Mississippi	23	95.8%
2011/10/22	33	Tennessee	26	at	1	Alabama	43	94.2%
2011/11/05	3	LSU	30	at	1	Alabama	36	73.6%
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	39	at	46	Mississippi St.	22	93.6%
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	42	at	26	Auburn	29	89.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.8
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 73.6%
Notes: Shockingly, Alabama seems to be through the bulk of their difficult schedule. Hosting LSU presents a bit of a challenge, but the Crimson Tide are still 3-to-1 favorites to win, and better than a coin toss to head to an SEC championship game undefeated.

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.912	2	0.496	61	29.3	5	11.5	3	164.0	76

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	23	Georgia	21	vs	2	Boise St.	35	84.9%
2011/09/16	2	Boise St.	40	at	65	Toledo	15	89.9%
2011/09/24	52	Tulsa	21	at	2	Boise St.	41	93.1%
2011/10/01	45	Nevada	10	at	2	Boise St.	30	91.3%
2011/10/07	2	Boise St.	43	at	72	Fresno St.	28	90.9%
2011/10/15	2	Boise St.	45	at	111	Colorado St.	21	97.7%
2011/10/22	50	Air Force	23	at	2	Boise St.	40	93.3%
2011/11/05	2	Boise St.	46	at	105	UNLV	22	97.6%
2011/11/12	10	TCU	31	at	2	Boise St.	37	73.4%
2011/11/19	2	Boise St.	40	at	65	SDSU	24	92.4%
2011/11/26	101	Wyoming	20	at	2	Boise St.	43	97.4%
2011/12/03	118	New Mexico	17	at	2	Boise St.	47	99.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 73.4%
Notes: Another year, another apparent cakewalk for Boise, another showdown with TCU on the horizon. TCU has fallen off this year, and the computer likes the fact that the Horned Frogs are visiting the Smurf Turf. The Broncos are also slightly better than a coin toss to finish the season out undefeated.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.901	5	0.495	62	30.9	3	12.8	8	159.8	103

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	115	SJSU	3	at	6	Stanford	57	98.8%
2011/09/10	6	Stanford	44	at	90	Duke	14	91.4%
2011/09/17	5	Stanford	37	at	40	Arizona	10	76.6%
2011/10/01	76	UCLA	19	at	4	Stanford	45	95.3%
2011/10/08	76	Colorado	24	at	5	Stanford	43	95.2%
2011/10/15	5	Stanford	41	at	81	Washington St.	25	91.6%
2011/10/22	45	Washington	26	at	5	Stanford	42	91.5%
2011/10/29	5	Stanford	37	at	36	USC	30	74.3%
2011/11/05	5	Stanford	39	at	64	Oregon St.	24	89.8%
2011/11/12	8	Oregon	34	at	5	Stanford	39	64.0%
2011/11/19	48	California	26	at	5	Stanford	39	87.9%
2011/11/26	14	Notre Dame	28	at	5	Stanford	36	71.2%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.7
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 64.0%
Notes: With eight games to go there are more chances for the Cardinal to slip up, and Oregon isn't going to go easily. Stanford currently has home field advantage on their side for most of the rest of the season, with only trips to Washington State (cakewalk), Oregon State (easy), and USC (less easy) calling them away from Palo Alto between now and December.

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.902	4	0.601	21	26.1	16	10.7	2	180.6	5

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	47	Tulsa	14	at	7	Oklahoma	47	88.3%
2011/09/17	6	Oklahoma	23	at	12	Florida St.	13	51.7%
2011/09/24	26	Missouri	28	at	4	Oklahoma	38	82.5%
2011/10/01	103	Ball St.	6	at	6	Oklahoma	62	97.6%
2011/10/08	21	Texas	28	vs	4	Oklahoma	34	75.0%
2011/10/15	4	Oklahoma	42	at	90	Kansas	26	93.5%
2011/10/22	43	Texas Tech	27	at	4	Oklahoma	41	91.2%
2011/10/29	4	Oklahoma	37	at	35	Kansas St.	33	74.1%
2011/11/05	15	Texas A&M	29	at	4	Oklahoma	36	75.1%
2011/11/19	4	Oklahoma	41	at	49	Baylor	29	88.2%
2011/11/26	68	Iowa St.	24	at	4	Oklahoma	39	92.3%
2011/12/03	4	Oklahoma	37	at	18	Oklahoma St.	32	72.4%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 72.4%
Notes: With Nebraska having bolted for the Big 10, that leaves a somewhat flaky Oklahoma State team and mediocre Aggie, Wildcat, and Longhorn squads to stand in the way of an undefeated season. It's possible the Sooners will trip up, but they're strong favorites in all remaining games.

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.882	6	0.506	57	31.4	2	14.0	15	158.8	107

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/01	107	UNLV	17	at	14	Wisconsin	51	96.5%
2011/09/10	40	Oregon St.	0	at	15	Wisconsin	35	79.4%
2011/09/17	13	Wisconsin	49	vs	47	Northern Ill.	7	76.3%
2011/10/01	17	Nebraska	17	at	7	Wisconsin	48	73.6%
2011/10/15	96	Indiana	23	at	6	Wisconsin	47	96.9%
2011/10/22	6	Wisconsin	34	at	20	Michigan St.	30	59.6%
2011/10/29	6	Wisconsin	30	at	9	Ohio St.	32	44.9%
2011/11/05	87	Purdue	22	at	6	Wisconsin	42	94.9%
2011/11/12	6	Wisconsin	44	at	97	Minnesota	24	95.0%
2011/11/19	6	Wisconsin	39	at	38	Illinois	29	81.1%
2011/11/26	30	Penn State	26	at	6	Wisconsin	35	74.5%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.1
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 44.9%
Notes: I suspect this will only tip in the Badgers' favor as the Buckeyes continue their long spiral downwards. Michigan State may present a challenge to Bucky, but this Wisconsin squad will likely be the favorite in all remaining games.

Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.788	13	0.638	12	22.4	35	13.3	11	166.2	62

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	68	Troy	19	at	34	Clemson	43	80.6%
2011/09/17	14	Auburn	24	at	26	Clemson	38	47.7%
2011/09/24	13	Florida St.	30	at	28	Clemson	35	49.2%
2011/10/01	23	Clemson	23	at	11	Virginia Tech	3	26.8%
2011/10/08	88	Boston College	20	at	13	Clemson	33	92.0%
2011/10/15	13	Clemson	33	at	57	Maryland	28	70.3%
2011/10/22	40	North Carolina	26	at	13	Clemson	34	79.0%
2011/10/29	13	Clemson	34	at	34	Georgia Tech	33	52.9%
2011/11/12	82	Wake Forest	25	at	13	Clemson	38	88.6%
2011/11/19	13	Clemson	35	at	54	North Carolina St.	28	76.9%
2011/11/26	13	Clemson	32	at	27	South Carolina	31	57.0%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.5
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 52.9%
Notes: Ahh, the ACC. I'm not going to pretend to know what's going to happen here. Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.909	3	0.671	4	29.8	4	11.9	5	160.8	100

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	5	Oregon	27	vs	9	LSU	40	45.4%
2011/09/15	7	LSU	19	at	35	Mississippi St.	6	69.4%
2011/09/24	5	LSU	47	at	21	West Virginia	21	64.4%
2011/10/01	62	Kentucky	7	at	5	LSU	35	93.0%
2011/10/08	7	Florida	30	at	3	LSU	35	66.6%
2011/10/15	3	LSU	37	at	33	Tennessee	31	74.8%
2011/10/22	26	Auburn	30	at	3	LSU	41	85.0%
2011/11/05	3	LSU	30	at	1	Alabama	36	26.4%
2011/11/12	110	Western Kentucky	20	at	3	LSU	47	98.5%
2011/11/19	3	LSU	41	at	73	Mississippi	24	93.4%
2011/11/25	17	Arkansas	33	at	3	LSU	38	73.6%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-13.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 26.4%
Notes: Could LSU be this year's Auburn? A team that beats 1-in-100 odds or even 1-in-27 odds to go all the way? Or is Les Miles actually Billy Pilgrim, and he already knows how this turns out?

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.452	66	0.339	111	21.5	46	23.2	89	180.6	6

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	36	at	66	Houston	41	67.0%
2011/10/22	93	Marshall	30	at	66	Houston	38	78.0%
2011/10/27	100	Rice	33	at	66	Houston	44	82.1%
2011/11/05	66	Houston	41	at	112	UAB	32	80.2%
2011/11/10	66	Houston	42	at	107	Tulane	33	78.6%
2011/11/19	62	SMU	35	at	66	Houston	34	46.5%
2011/11/25	66	Houston	37	at	52	Tulsa	39	42.1%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-18.9
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 42.1%
Notes: Wrong conference. Next!

Absolute Phonies

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.790	12	0.476	70	27.7	11	16.3	30	160.9	99

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	67	Western Michigan	10	at	62	Michigan	34	67.8%
2011/09/10	28	Notre Dame	31	at	39	Michigan	35	54.9%
2011/09/17	116	Eastern Michigan	3	at	37	Michigan	31	96.3%
2011/09/24	59	SDSU	7	at	31	Michigan	28	75.6%
2011/10/01	79	Minnesota	0	at	29	Michigan	58	86.3%
2011/10/08	12	Michigan	38	at	69	Northwestern	29	77.1%
2011/10/15	12	Michigan	31	at	20	Michigan St.	33	45.0%
2011/10/29	87	Purdue	24	at	12	Michigan	40	92.6%
2011/11/05	12	Michigan	35	at	25	Iowa	34	52.8%
2011/11/12	12	Michigan	36	at	38	Illinois	31	64.3%
2011/11/19	23	Nebraska	32	at	12	Michigan	35	55.2%
2011/11/26	9	Ohio St.	32	at	12	Michigan	30	39.6%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-41.9
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Ohio State Buckeyes, 39.6%
Notes: I'm still skeptical that Michigan is for real. Let's see them get past Michigan State and then we'll talk. The hearing on this appeal is scheduled for October 20th.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.779	18	0.553	38	25.5	18	15.4	23	182.0	2

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	110	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	Oklahoma St.	61	96.7%
2011/09/08	34	Arizona	14	at	22	Oklahoma St.	37	69.2%
2011/09/18	15	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	Tulsa	33	66.1%
2011/09/24	17	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	38.3%
2011/10/08	90	Kansas	28	at	18	Oklahoma St.	45	91.9%
2011/10/15	18	Oklahoma St.	33	at	21	Texas	34	44.2%
2011/10/22	18	Oklahoma St.	33	at	24	Missouri	34	42.2%
2011/10/29	49	Baylor	31	at	18	Oklahoma St.	42	81.9%
2011/11/05	35	Kansas St.	35	at	18	Oklahoma St.	39	67.5%
2011/11/12	18	Oklahoma St.	38	at	43	Texas Tech	33	67.7%
2011/11/18	18	Oklahoma St.	39	at	68	Iowa St.	28	82.1%
2011/12/03	4	Oklahoma	37	at	18	Oklahoma St.	32	27.6%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-68.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 27.6%
Notes: This Cowboy squad is only favored in five of their remaining 8 games. Beat Texas in Austin and we'll talk. Hearing for this one is also scheduled for the 20th.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.673	34	0.492	65	28.0	8	20.9	76	156.8	117

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/10	56	Georgia Tech	49	at	97	Middle Tenn.	21	66.4%
2011/09/17	86	Kansas	24	at	43	Georgia Tech	66	81.0%
2011/09/24	41	North Carolina	28	at	37	Georgia Tech	35	64.9%
2011/10/01	38	Georgia Tech	45	at	58	North Carolina St.	35	57.3%
2011/10/08	57	Maryland	31	at	34	Georgia Tech	39	73.4%
2011/10/15	34	Georgia Tech	38	at	84	Virginia	30	73.8%
2011/10/22	34	Georgia Tech	33	at	29	Miami-FL	36	33.1%
2011/10/29	13	Clemson	34	at	34	Georgia Tech	33	47.1%
2011/11/10	11	Virginia Tech	33	at	34	Georgia Tech	32	37.6%
2011/11/19	34	Georgia Tech	41	at	83	Duke	31	78.9%
2011/11/26	19	Georgia	38	at	34	Georgia Tech	35	39.2%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-101.8
Most difficult game left: October 22, at Miami Hurricanes, 33.1%
Notes: The ACC, with 100-to-1 odds to boot. No thank you.

Texas Longhorns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.754	21	0.486	66	22.7	30	14.5	16	163.5	81

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	98	Rice	9	at	33	Texas	34	91.8%
2011/09/10	38	BYU	16	at	25	Texas	17	71.3%
2011/09/17	24	Texas	49	at	76	UCLA	20	72.7%
2011/10/01	22	Texas	37	at	60	Iowa St.	14	67.0%
2011/10/08	21	Texas	28	vs	4	Oklahoma	34	25.0%
2011/10/15	18	Oklahoma St.	33	at	21	Texas	34	55.8%
2011/10/29	90	Kansas	25	at	21	Texas	41	91.6%
2011/11/05	43	Texas Tech	29	at	21	Texas	35	72.0%
2011/11/12	21	Texas	29	at	24	Missouri	31	46.1%
2011/11/19	35	Kansas St.	33	at	21	Texas	34	60.3%
2011/11/24	21	Texas	30	at	15	Texas A&M	32	45.7%
2011/12/03	21	Texas	36	at	49	Baylor	30	71.2%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-120.2
Most difficult game left: October 8, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.0%
Notes: Everyone who expects them to be here next week, step forwards. Not so fast, Austin residents.

What are YOU doing here??

Illinois Fighting Illini
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.637	38	0.518	52	22.2	37	17.7	42	165.7	67

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	88	Arkansas St.	15	at	40	Illinois	33	85.6%
2011/09/17	33	Arizona St.	14	at	34	Illinois	17	59.8%
2011/09/24	72	Western Michigan	20	at	34	Illinois	23	79.8%
2011/10/01	75	Northwestern	35	at	35	Illinois	38	81.4%
2011/10/08	38	Illinois	37	at	96	Indiana	29	77.9%
2011/10/15	9	Ohio St.	31	at	38	Illinois	28	30.9%
2011/10/22	38	Illinois	33	at	87	Purdue	28	69.7%
2011/10/29	38	Illinois	27	at	30	Penn State	31	30.0%
2011/11/12	12	Michigan	36	at	38	Illinois	31	35.7%
2011/11/19	6	Wisconsin	39	at	38	Illinois	29	18.9%
2011/11/26	38	Illinois	38	at	97	Minnesota	27	84.1%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-350.1
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs Wisconsin Badgers, 18.9%
Notes: Favored in three of their remaining seven games. The betting pool should be on how long this lasts, not whether they'll make it.

Kansas State Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.668	35	0.514	54	26.6	14	20.1	67	157.5	114

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/17	105	Kent St.	0	at	57	Kansas St.	37	89.0%
2011/09/24	38	Kansas St.	28	at	16	Miami-FL	24	25.3%
2011/10/01	46	Baylor	35	at	36	Kansas St.	36	68.7%
2011/10/08	24	Missouri	34	at	35	Kansas St.	33	49.3%
2011/10/15	35	Kansas St.	35	at	43	Texas Tech	36	49.5%
2011/10/22	35	Kansas St.	40	at	90	Kansas	32	73.7%
2011/10/29	4	Oklahoma	37	at	35	Kansas St.	33	25.9%
2011/11/05	35	Kansas St.	35	at	18	Oklahoma St.	39	32.5%
2011/11/12	15	Texas A&M	35	at	35	Kansas St.	34	39.7%
2011/11/19	35	Kansas St.	33	at	21	Texas	34	39.7%
2011/12/03	68	Iowa St.	30	at	35	Kansas St.	37	72.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-579.7
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.9%
Notes: Win two coin tosses and then beat Oklahoma. Who else thinks they're pulling that one off? Me neither.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.586	43	0.364	106	20.9	48	18.2	50	180.7	4

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/17	51	Texas Tech	59	at	118	New Mexico	13	91.2%
2011/09/24	50	Nevada	34	at	43	Texas Tech	35	63.7%
2011/10/01	40	Texas Tech	45	at	91	Kansas	34	71.6%
2011/10/08	15	Texas A&M	35	at	43	Texas Tech	32	36.1%
2011/10/15	35	Kansas St.	35	at	43	Texas Tech	36	50.5%
2011/10/22	43	Texas Tech	27	at	4	Oklahoma	41	8.8%
2011/10/29	68	Iowa St.	29	at	43	Texas Tech	36	74.7%
2011/11/05	43	Texas Tech	29	at	21	Texas	35	28.0%
2011/11/12	18	Oklahoma St.	38	at	43	Texas Tech	33	32.3%
2011/11/19	43	Texas Tech	30	at	24	Missouri	35	32.0%
2011/11/26	43	Texas Tech	36	vs	49	Baylor	35	53.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5409.5
Most difficult game left: October 22, at Oklahoma Sooners, 8.8%
Notes: It's a good thing the Red Raiders got rid of Mike Leach. Otherwise they might be an embarrassment.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.