Week 7: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2011-10-09

Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.966	7	0.459	95	25.9	4	8.7	5	169.1	30

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	24	Georgia	21	vs	3	Boise St.	35	66.8%
2011/09/16	4	Boise St.	40	at	70	Toledo	15	96.4%
2011/09/24	56	Tulsa	21	at	5	Boise St.	41	89.8%
2011/10/01	58	Nevada	10	at	6	Boise St.	30	91.0%
2011/10/07	7	Boise St.	57	at	75	Fresno St.	7	91.9%
2011/10/15	7	Boise St.	52	at	109	Colorado St.	10	98.1%
2011/10/22	47	Air Force	17	at	7	Boise St.	41	85.5%
2011/11/05	7	Boise St.	49	at	120	UNLV	14	98.0%
2011/11/12	8	TCU	27	at	7	Boise St.	31	74.0%
2011/11/19	7	Boise St.	35	at	63	SDSU	20	90.7%
2011/11/26	107	Wyoming	7	at	7	Boise St.	49	96.6%
2011/12/03	117	New Mexico	6	at	7	Boise St.	59	99.2%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 74.0%
Notes: Boise had similar odds last year and bricked a couple of gimme field goals.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	1.000	1	0.549	16	24.5	7	5.0	1	157.4	120

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	97	Kent St.	7	at	2	Alabama	48	98.2%
2011/09/10	3	Alabama	27	at	37	Penn State	11	89.4%
2011/09/17	108	North Texas	0	at	2	Alabama	41	98.1%
2011/09/24	19	Arkansas	14	at	2	Alabama	38	74.7%
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	10	Florida	10	70.5%
2011/10/08	58	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	94.6%
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	35	at	79	Mississippi	14	97.8%
2011/10/22	27	Tennessee	13	at	1	Alabama	35	90.5%
2011/11/05	3	LSU	24	at	1	Alabama	28	66.6%
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	31	at	34	Mississippi St.	14	92.1%
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	31	at	23	Auburn	20	92.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.0
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 66.6%
Notes: Alabama is the best team in college football and will be heavily favored against everyone but LSU.

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.966	6	0.545	22	25.3	6	8.4	3	170.9	19

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	58	Tulsa	14	at	7	Oklahoma	47	85.6%
2011/09/17	5	Oklahoma	23	at	12	Florida St.	13	28.1%
2011/09/24	30	Missouri	28	at	8	Oklahoma	38	76.8%
2011/10/01	91	Ball St.	6	at	8	Oklahoma	62	97.6%
2011/10/08	31	Texas	17	vs	6	Oklahoma	55	73.8%
2011/10/15	6	Oklahoma	52	at	89	Kansas	17	95.8%
2011/10/22	46	Texas Tech	17	at	6	Oklahoma	41	87.3%
2011/10/29	6	Oklahoma	38	at	38	Kansas St.	21	85.0%
2011/11/05	20	Texas A&M	21	at	6	Oklahoma	35	74.8%
2011/11/19	6	Oklahoma	41	at	40	Baylor	27	87.5%
2011/11/26	76	Iowa St.	17	at	6	Oklahoma	45	93.2%
2011/12/03	6	Oklahoma	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	27	75.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.1
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs Texas A&M Aggies, 74.8%
Notes: Unlike Alabama and Boise State, Oklahoma has two strong opponents remaining: the Aggies and the Cowboys.

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.992	2	0.536	36	27.8	1	10.3	9	162.1	106

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/01	106	UNLV	17	at	11	Wisconsin	51	94.7%
2011/09/10	65	Oregon St.	0	at	7	Wisconsin	35	78.4%
2011/09/17	3	Wisconsin	49	vs	64	Northern Ill.	7	71.8%
2011/10/01	26	Nebraska	17	at	2	Wisconsin	48	66.2%
2011/10/15	96	Indiana	14	at	2	Wisconsin	45	95.3%
2011/10/22	2	Wisconsin	35	at	33	Michigan St.	17	77.7%
2011/10/29	2	Wisconsin	31	at	19	Ohio St.	20	66.6%
2011/11/05	87	Purdue	13	at	2	Wisconsin	49	96.1%
2011/11/12	2	Wisconsin	45	at	112	Minnesota	17	96.5%
2011/11/19	2	Wisconsin	34	at	28	Illinois	24	83.8%
2011/11/26	41	Penn State	14	at	2	Wisconsin	35	83.2%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.1
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 66.6%
Notes: Wisconsin needs to blow out Ohio State and Michigan State on the road to impress the humans because there's a 16% chance that Alabama and Oklahoma win out.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.983	4	0.544	24	27.3	2	8.9	6	167.2	52

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	107	SJSU	3	at	1	Stanford	57	98.2%
2011/09/10	1	Stanford	44	at	82	Duke	14	93.3%
2011/09/17	1	Stanford	37	at	37	Arizona	10	79.2%
2011/10/01	75	UCLA	19	at	3	Stanford	45	94.7%
2011/10/08	67	Colorado	7	at	4	Stanford	48	94.9%
2011/10/15	4	Stanford	45	at	64	Washington St.	14	90.8%
2011/10/22	44	Washington	20	at	4	Stanford	41	87.5%
2011/10/29	4	Stanford	38	at	30	USC	24	84.8%
2011/11/05	4	Stanford	41	at	85	Oregon St.	20	94.9%
2011/11/12	5	Oregon	28	at	4	Stanford	35	54.4%
2011/11/19	53	California	14	at	4	Stanford	42	89.9%
2011/11/26	16	Notre Dame	20	at	4	Stanford	38	79.0%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.0
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 54.4%
Notes: The computers love Stanford, but they also love Oregon. If Oklahoma and Wisconsin lose, I'd even expect the stadium to be 90% full.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.991	3	0.550	14	21.7	15	7.3	2	160.8	112

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	9	Oregon	27	vs	8	LSU	40	56.5%
2011/09/15	8	LSU	19	at	25	Mississippi St.	6	64.1%
2011/09/24	7	LSU	47	at	26	West Virginia	21	35.3%
2011/10/01	57	Kentucky	7	at	4	LSU	35	84.7%
2011/10/08	13	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	54.8%
2011/10/15	3	LSU	31	at	27	Tennessee	17	82.7%
2011/10/22	23	Auburn	20	at	3	LSU	34	86.4%
2011/11/05	3	LSU	24	at	1	Alabama	28	33.4%
2011/11/12	105	Western Kentucky	3	at	3	LSU	42	98.4%
2011/11/19	3	LSU	34	at	79	Mississippi	17	95.7%
2011/11/25	12	Arkansas	20	at	3	LSU	35	78.2%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 33.4%
Notes: LSU has played very well this season, but the Tigers need a game for the ages against Alabama. Even if they win that one, they still have to make it past Arkansas.

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.924	10	0.528	55	18.7	38	10.5	11	166.4	65

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	76	Troy	19	at	38	Clemson	43	80.0%
2011/09/17	16	Auburn	24	at	27	Clemson	38	45.7%
2011/09/24	12	Florida St.	30	at	16	Clemson	35	28.3%
2011/10/01	11	Clemson	23	at	19	Virginia Tech	3	37.6%
2011/10/08	91	Boston College	14	at	10	Clemson	36	84.8%
2011/10/15	10	Clemson	28	at	65	Maryland	21	77.3%
2011/10/22	42	North Carolina	20	at	10	Clemson	31	66.8%
2011/10/29	10	Clemson	27	at	36	Georgia Tech	21	61.7%
2011/11/12	84	Wake Forest	21	at	10	Clemson	35	83.2%
2011/11/19	10	Clemson	31	at	70	North Carolina St.	24	82.2%
2011/11/26	10	Clemson	24	at	15	South Carolina	28	47.5%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-9.7
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 47.5%
Notes: We don't trust ACC teams here at Tempo-Free Gridiron, but Stephen Garcia's dismissal made Clemson's road easier.

Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.537	57	0.475	84	20.3	24	17.4	76	175.1	4

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	66	UCLA	34	at	67	Houston	38	50.7%
2011/09/10	63	Houston	48	at	111	North Texas	23	68.4%
2011/09/17	67	Houston	35	at	79	LA Tech	34	64.5%
2011/09/29	64	Houston	49	at	95	UTEP	42	75.5%
2011/10/08	93	East Carolina	3	at	57	Houston	56	56.0%
2011/10/22	102	Marshall	20	at	57	Houston	38	70.7%
2011/10/27	92	Rice	24	at	57	Houston	42	72.4%
2011/11/05	57	Houston	38	at	115	UAB	24	79.2%
2011/11/10	57	Houston	45	at	103	Tulane	24	86.3%
2011/11/19	68	SMU	27	at	57	Houston	35	60.3%
2011/11/25	57	Houston	31	at	50	Tulsa	35	39.6%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.0
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 39.6%
Notes: Even if they win out, Houston's not playing in the national championship game because they struggle to beat bottom 60 teams convincingly.

Illinois Fighting Illini
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.778	28	0.536	37	18.2	42	13.9	40	169.8	24

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	90	Arkansas St.	15	at	32	Illinois	33	76.8%
2011/09/17	28	Arizona St.	14	at	26	Illinois	17	59.6%
2011/09/24	76	Western Michigan	20	at	24	Illinois	23	89.8%
2011/10/01	76	Northwestern	35	at	30	Illinois	38	71.4%
2011/10/08	28	Illinois	41	at	96	Indiana	20	82.7%
2011/10/15	19	Ohio St.	24	at	28	Illinois	25	72.1%
2011/10/22	28	Illinois	34	at	87	Purdue	24	82.8%
2011/10/29	28	Illinois	24	at	41	Penn State	25	49.1%
2011/11/12	25	Michigan	28	at	28	Illinois	31	67.9%
2011/11/19	2	Wisconsin	34	at	28	Illinois	24	16.2%
2011/11/26	28	Illinois	35	at	112	Minnesota	21	84.5%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-36.7
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs Wisconsin Badgers, 16.2%
Notes: Illinois has finally developed some offensive consistency under coordinator Paul Petrino, but they're going to need more defense to make it through Michigan and Wisconsin.

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.816	25	0.541	29	22.5	11	13.2	36	168.3	40

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	88	Western Michigan	10	at	55	Michigan	34	81.3%
2011/09/10	31	Notre Dame	31	at	45	Michigan	35	34.7%
2011/09/17	117	Eastern Michigan	3	at	43	Michigan	31	94.1%
2011/09/24	58	SDSU	7	at	39	Michigan	28	58.7%
2011/10/01	94	Minnesota	0	at	33	Michigan	58	79.0%
2011/10/08	25	Michigan	42	at	74	Northwestern	24	77.0%
2011/10/15	25	Michigan	28	at	33	Michigan St.	27	58.8%
2011/10/29	87	Purdue	13	at	25	Michigan	45	91.0%
2011/11/05	25	Michigan	24	at	17	Iowa	28	41.3%
2011/11/12	25	Michigan	28	at	28	Illinois	31	32.1%
2011/11/19	26	Nebraska	28	at	25	Michigan	34	58.2%
2011/11/26	19	Ohio St.	27	at	25	Michigan	28	55.0%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-44.0
Most difficult game left: November 12, at Illinois Fighting Illini, 32.1%
Notes: The Wolverines play three coin tosses and two more as road underdogs.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.727	36	0.531	45	22.9	9	16.0	56	163.9	94

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/10	47	Georgia Tech	49	at	98	Middle Tenn.	21	88.0%
2011/09/17	88	Kansas	24	at	42	Georgia Tech	66	79.8%
2011/09/24	46	North Carolina	28	at	38	Georgia Tech	35	53.3%
2011/10/01	39	Georgia Tech	45	at	85	North Carolina St.	35	62.8%
2011/10/08	65	Maryland	16	at	36	Georgia Tech	21	52.8%
2011/10/15	36	Georgia Tech	38	at	82	Virginia	24	77.6%
2011/10/22	36	Georgia Tech	31	at	54	Miami-FL	28	65.3%
2011/10/29	10	Clemson	27	at	36	Georgia Tech	21	38.3%
2011/11/10	24	Virginia Tech	27	at	36	Georgia Tech	24	39.0%
2011/11/19	36	Georgia Tech	38	at	71	Duke	27	75.8%
2011/11/26	18	Georgia	27	at	36	Georgia Tech	24	34.8%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-50.1
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 34.8%
Notes: The Kansas blowout was impressive, but middling victories against lower-tier ACC teams aren't the hallmark of national champions.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.941	9	0.550	15	25.8	5	14.1	43	172.6	9

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/03	113	LA-Lafayette	34	at	12	Oklahoma St.	61	94.4%
2011/09/08	32	Arizona	14	at	10	Oklahoma St.	37	53.2%
2011/09/18	9	Oklahoma St.	59	at	59	Tulsa	33	70.7%
2011/09/24	10	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	52.7%
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	70	89.9%
2011/10/15	9	Oklahoma St.	31	at	31	Texas	24	52.3%
2011/10/22	9	Oklahoma St.	31	at	29	Missouri	27	59.3%
2011/10/29	40	Baylor	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	42	69.7%
2011/11/05	38	Kansas St.	24	at	9	Oklahoma St.	38	65.0%
2011/11/12	9	Oklahoma St.	38	at	46	Texas Tech	27	69.2%
2011/11/18	9	Oklahoma St.	41	at	76	Iowa St.	27	81.9%
2011/12/03	6	Oklahoma	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	27	24.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-50.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 24.7%
Notes: RBA likes the Cowboys, but they have a tough road remaining: Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.694	38	0.528	51	20.5	20	14.2	45	165.9	74

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds
2011/09/17	106	Kent St.	0	at	50	Kansas St.	37	83.5%
2011/09/24	42	Kansas St.	28	at	40	Miami-FL	24	44.9%
2011/10/01	50	Baylor	35	at	44	Kansas St.	36	57.8%
2011/10/08	29	Missouri	17	at	38	Kansas St.	24	45.4%
2011/10/15	38	Kansas St.	31	at	46	Texas Tech	32	45.2%
2011/10/22	38	Kansas St.	42	at	89	Kansas	24	80.4%
2011/10/29	6	Oklahoma	38	at	38	Kansas St.	21	15.0%
2011/11/05	38	Kansas St.	24	at	9	Oklahoma St.	38	35.0%
2011/11/12	20	Texas A&M	31	at	38	Kansas St.	28	34.4%
2011/11/19	38	Kansas St.	24	at	31	Texas	31	37.2%
2011/12/03	76	Iowa St.	21	at	38	Kansas St.	35	70.9%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-577.7
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 15.0%
Notes: K-state's victories to date haven't been as impressive as the humans would lead you to believe, and the Wildcats still have to play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.