Game of the Week
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers
GUGS Score: 72.2
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Missouri | 0.754 | 0.591 | 26 | 21.5 | 42 | 13.7 | 10 | 171.5 | 23 |
| 15 | Oklahoma St. | 0.785 | 0.550 | 41 | 25.9 | 14 | 15.4 | 22 | 181.9 | 3 |
This is one of those games where you look at your computer and what it spit out and just hope that it's right. There are definite signs that Oklahoma State isn't the absolute juggernaut the BCS believes it to be, but giving the slight edge to Missouri is risky. So why does my computer think the Tigers have a shot here? Three words: home field advantage. The Cowboys barely won at Texas A&M, and the Tigers are nearly as good as the Aggies, and also have home field advantage. I'm just as curious as you are to see how this turns out, but TFG gives the nod to the Tigers. Missouri 34, Oklahoma St. 33 (57.4%) in 176 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Missouri | 0.776 | 0.529 | 51 | 17.1 | 51 | 10.6 | 13 | 174.1 | 5 |
| 9 | Oklahoma St. | 0.941 | 0.552 | 12 | 25.9 | 6 | 14.1 | 44 | 172.6 | 9 |
(9) Oklahoma State has a tough road to an undefeated season, and (28) Missouri is more than a speed bump along the way. The Cowboys are rightfully favored in this game, but their offense is a little flaky at 38.4 +/- 24.9 PPH. The Missouri defense is pretty flaky in its own right at 0.0 +/- 25.5 PPH, so that side of the ball may have some surprises. The other side? Not so much. Missouri's offense is consistently mediocre (21.2 +/- 8.3 PPH) but plays fast. Oklahoma State's defense is a statistical oddity that it plays slightly better against strong competition: 14.8 PPH -/+ 1.3 PPH. Home field keeps Missouri within a touchdown, but Oklahoma State should ring up some points and win, 34-27, with 63.8% confidence.
Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans
GUGS Score: 67.3
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Michigan St. | 0.851 | 0.543 | 25 | 19.7 | 30 | 10.0 | 11 | 167.4 | 48 |
| 3 | Wisconsin | 0.991 | 0.535 | 38 | 28.5 | 1 | 9.6 | 7 | 162.1 | 106 |
Long time TFG readers will remember that RBA doesn't have a track record of respecting the (20) Spartans. Well, they got better. Michigan State has a tendency to lose its offense in big games (34.4 +/- 29.3 PPH). However, their defense is still pretty solid at 1.6 +/- 16.7 PPH. Unfortunately, they're going to need t play better than "solid" against the (3) Badgers and their top-ranked offense. Wisconsin has ridden up the RBA polls on the backs of a 37.8 +/- 18.5 PPH offense and an excellent 6.3 +/- 6.6 PPH defense. As much as the Spartans have improved, they're clearly inferior to the Badgers. Home field can only help so much, and it's simply not enough. RBA says Wisconsin wins 31-17 with 72.7% probability.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Michigan St. | 0.791 | 0.575 | 31 | 22.9 | 30 | 13.5 | 9 | 161.0 | 98 |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 0.892 | 0.476 | 70 | 32.1 | 3 | 13.8 | 11 | 158.2 | 111 |
TFG isn't as bullish on the Badger offense as RBA as -- it prefers Alabama and LSU -- but Wisconsin still has a formidable offense. The Spartan defense isn't exactly a slouch, though, and will present the toughest challenge Wisconsin has seen all year. That's the good news for Michigan State. The bad news is that their defense is roughly on par with Nebraska's, and the Huskers gave up 48 points to the Badgers. Between a top-10 defense and home field advantage, the Spartans are hoping to keep this once close. TFG says they will, but ultimately it won't be enough. Wisconsin 34, Michigan St. 30 (57.7%); 159 plays.
Shootout of the Week
SMU Mustangs at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
GUGS Score: 53.2
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Southern Miss. | 0.499 | 0.360 | 107 | 21.0 | 48 | 21.0 | 76 | 177.9 | 9 |
| 46 | SMU | 0.578 | 0.437 | 83 | 21.1 | 46 | 18.7 | 52 | 161.9 | 91 |
Take two reasonably good offenses, two so-so defenses, add in one high-paced team, mix, and you get the recipe for one shootout. Southern Miss is actually the very definition of an average team this year, and SMU is in the same ballpark. Between the two of them, these teams are averaging 43.5 points per game over their last three games each. This one is likely to turn into a track meet, and a close one at that. Continuing with our "home field advantage" theme of the week, look for Southern Miss to engineer a late drive and pull off the victory in a close game. Southern Miss. 35, SMU 34 (53.9%); 169 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Southern Miss. | 0.750 | 0.484 | 75 | 22.0 | 12 | 17.2 | 71 | 168.7 | 35 |
| 50 | SMU | 0.579 | 0.482 | 76 | 18.3 | 45 | 15.5 | 51 | 165.9 | 73 |
141. That's how many points the (31) Golden Eagles have put up in the last three games. On top of that, Southern Miss is one of six teams whose offense actually improves as the competition increases (Miami-FL, Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Memphis, and UNLV are the other five). (50) Southern Methodist isn't exactly a top team, but June Jones has them on a positive trajectory. Neither offense is going to set records, but their defenses are poor enough to make it interesting at 5.6 +/- 19.8 PPH (SMU) and 8.6 +/- 17.1 PPH (Southern Miss). RBA predicts close game ending in a Southern Miss victory, 34-28, with 52.2% probability.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers
GUGS Score: 40.3
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | Virginia | 0.279 | 0.531 | 46 | 13.6 | 85 | 16.4 | 63 | 164.3 | 91 |
| 72 | North Carolina St. | 0.391 | 0.529 | 50 | 17.7 | 48 | 18.4 | 82 | 166.9 | 58 |
Justin, isn't every ACC game a toss-up? Neither (87) Virginia or (72) NC State are very good. However, both teams are consistent on both sides of the ball. The Cavalier defense (12.8 +/- 7.2 PPH) is marginally better than the Wolfpack defense (16.1 +/- 4.5 PPH). The Wolfpack offense (21.9 +/- 8.4 PPH) is slightly better than the Cavalier offense (20.4 +/- 13.6 PPH). Home field advantage doesn't matter as much in conference games as non-conference games, leaning the game towards Virginia, 29-28, with 58.3% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | Virginia | 0.363 | 0.489 | 66 | 15.4 | 96 | 19.3 | 58 | 170.9 | 27 |
| 57 | North Carolina St. | 0.525 | 0.546 | 43 | 20.8 | 50 | 20.0 | 63 | 168.8 | 39 |
Very true, Eddie. We're getting a lot of mileage out of that one study. But given that this is the Coin Toss Game of the Week, by definition we disagree about it and therefore one of us has to be right. Mediocre defenses combined with mediocre offense and an up-tempo pace equals ... something. Who knows where this is going? A blowout? A nail biter? TFG gives a slight edge to the visiting Wolfpack, but just barely. North Carolina St. 32, Virginia 31 (54.7%); 169 plays.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 33.76 - 11.24 | 75.02% |
| TFG | 33.69 - 11.31 | 74.86% |
