Monday, October 17, 2011

Week 8: Top 25 -- TFG


We've reached the halfway mark in the season, and with a few exceptions we're starting to see this year's data take hold in our computer polls.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.967 0.567 34 35.2 1 9.1 1 153.7 120
2 +1 LSU 0.934 0.682 2 33.3 2 11.6 4 157.9 112
3 -1 Boise St. 0.930 0.463 76 31.4 4 11.2 3 164.0 76
4 -- Stanford 0.908 0.473 71 30.3 5 12.1 6 160.3 102
5 -- Oklahoma 0.903 0.573 32 26.5 8 10.8 2 179.5 7
6 -- Wisconsin 0.892 0.476 70 32.1 3 13.8 11 158.2 111
7 -- Oregon 0.882 0.652 9 28.4 7 12.7 8 186.8 1
8 +1 Ohio St. 0.834 0.547 42 22.5 37 11.8 5 158.7 110
9 +1 TCU 0.815 0.441 79 26.4 9 14.6 18 164.2 75
10 -2 Florida 0.809 0.648 12 25.3 19 14.2 16 158.8 109
11 -- Arkansas 0.801 0.654 8 28.5 6 16.3 28 170.5 30
12 +1 Virginia Tech 0.797 0.525 55 24.3 23 14.0 13 157.4 113
13 +3 Texas A&M 0.793 0.627 15 24.2 24 14.1 14 178.0 8
14 +7 Michigan St. 0.791 0.575 31 22.9 30 13.5 9 161.0 98
15 -- Oklahoma St. 0.785 0.550 41 25.9 14 15.4 22 181.9 3
16 +4 West Virginia 0.785 0.541 46 25.1 20 14.9 20 165.7 67
17 -5 Notre Dame 0.785 0.615 19 23.1 28 13.8 12 171.3 24
18 +4 Nebraska 0.774 0.585 29 25.4 16 15.6 24 166.0 65
19 -1 South Carolina 0.766 0.583 30 25.3 18 15.7 25 160.4 101
20 -6 Michigan 0.761 0.505 60 26.3 12 16.6 33 161.8 92
21 +2 Florida St. 0.760 0.592 25 25.4 17 16.0 26 159.2 106
22 NA Missouri 0.754 0.591 26 21.5 42 13.7 10 171.5 23
23 -4 Clemson 0.744 0.596 23 23.3 26 15.2 21 168.2 48
24 +1 Arizona St. 0.743 0.680 3 22.3 40 14.6 19 175.4 14
25 NA Auburn 0.743 0.652 10 26.4 10 17.3 39 166.6 58
Rankings through games of 2011-10-16

New entries: Missouri, Auburn.

Dropped out: Georgia, Penn State.

The Crimson Tide continue to dominate their opposition and march towards another SEC -- and possible National -- championship. They hung 52 points on Ole Miss in a mere 141 plays, for an obscene raw offensive efficiency of 36.9 PPH; the Mississippi defense wasn't bad, per se, they were just horribly overmatched. LSU flip-flopped with Boise to take the #2 spot, while Stanford, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Oregon are all pretty much treading water right now.

Ohio State, TCU, and Florida are currently in a no-man's land where they're riding last year's data but still doing well enough to not plummet in this year's ratings. Obviously Florida is at more risk than the others, but thanks to playing good teams in the SEC, the Gators aren't punished as much as they could be because, well ... they're expected to lose those games.

Virginia Tech -- despite flubbing a home game against Clemson -- are still on track to win the ACC Coastal and earn a rematch against the Tigers. Meanwhile Clemson won but dropped significantly in the rankings because good teams don't surrender 45 points to Maryland. Texas A&M stomped overrated Baylor, and Michigan State defeated overrated Michigan to each pick up a few spots. Oklahoma State is still only ranked 15th because good teams beat Texas by more than just 12 points. West Virginia and Notre Dame are two other teams looking for that special something to break through to the next level, but are unlikely to find it this year.

Beyond that we enter a no-man's land from (18) Nebraska to (25) Auburn, all separated by 0.031 in expected winning percentage (also know as "less than the gap separating (1) Alabama and (2) LSU"). A defensive lapse here, an extra FG there ... each can add up for a swing of several places in this lower portion of the top 25. With half the season left to play, there's still a lot of room for motion here. Let Act II begin.

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