Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2011-10-16

Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	1.000	1	0.548	17	26.0	5	5.1	1	157.3	120

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	97	Kent St.	7	at	2	Alabama	48	98.2%	172
2011/09/10	3	Alabama	27	at	37	Penn State	11	89.4%	164
2011/09/17	108	North Texas	0	at	2	Alabama	41	98.1%	153
2011/09/24	19	Arkansas	14	at	2	Alabama	38	74.7%	145
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	10	Florida	10	70.5%	146
2011/10/08	58	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	94.6%	140
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	52	at	69	Mississippi	7	97.8%	141
2011/10/22	29	Tennessee	10	at	1	Alabama	38	93.0%	158
2011/11/05	2	LSU	24	at	1	Alabama	28	75.5%	159
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	31	at	38	Mississippi St.	13	94.5%	160
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	31	at	24	Auburn	17	95.4%	158

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 75.5%
Notes: How good is Alabama? They have a better chance of finishing undefeated than Boise State, even considering the Broncos' remaining competition. Through seven games, their defense has allowed an average of 38.1 rushing yards per game and an absolutely disgusting 4.6 PPH.

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.958	7	0.460	95	26.3	4	9.0	6	169.0	30

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	24	Georgia	21	vs	3	Boise St.	35	66.8%	159
2011/09/16	4	Boise St.	40	at	70	Toledo	15	96.4%	181
2011/09/24	56	Tulsa	21	at	5	Boise St.	41	89.8%	162
2011/10/01	58	Nevada	10	at	6	Boise St.	30	91.0%	159
2011/10/07	7	Boise St.	57	at	75	Fresno St.	7	91.9%	161
2011/10/15	7	Boise St.	63	at	106	Colorado St.	13	98.1%	161
2011/10/22	54	Air Force	17	at	7	Boise St.	42	90.0%	166
2011/11/05	7	Boise St.	52	at	120	UNLV	17	98.7%	167
2011/11/12	8	TCU	27	at	7	Boise St.	31	77.9%	168
2011/11/19	7	Boise St.	35	at	59	SDSU	21	92.3%	168
2011/11/26	104	Wyoming	7	at	7	Boise St.	55	98.2%	168
2011/12/03	117	New Mexico	6	at	7	Boise St.	63	99.3%	168

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 77.9%
Notes: It's unlikely that the Broncos will make the big game, but they are more likely than not to go undefeated. TCU is the only remaining team that should even challenge Boise.

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.966	5	0.544	23	24.7	7	8.9	5	171.0	19

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	58	Tulsa	14	at	7	Oklahoma	47	85.6%	191
2011/09/17	5	Oklahoma	23	at	12	Florida St.	13	28.1%	150
2011/09/24	30	Missouri	28	at	8	Oklahoma	38	76.8%	194
2011/10/01	91	Ball St.	6	at	8	Oklahoma	62	97.6%	182
2011/10/08	31	Texas	17	vs	6	Oklahoma	55	73.8%	179
2011/10/15	5	Oklahoma	47	at	91	Kansas	17	95.8%	183
2011/10/22	44	Texas Tech	17	at	5	Oklahoma	41	87.9%	175
2011/10/29	5	Oklahoma	35	at	34	Kansas St.	21	84.6%	168
2011/11/05	15	Texas A&M	21	at	5	Oklahoma	35	78.7%	171
2011/11/19	5	Oklahoma	42	at	43	Baylor	27	87.3%	171
2011/11/26	83	Iowa St.	17	at	5	Oklahoma	48	95.1%	169
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	27	75.9%	171

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.7
Most difficult game left: December 3, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 75.9%
Notes: It's conceivable that Oklahoma loses before their game against Oklahoma State, but it's unlikely. Undefeated Kansas State is little more than a speed bump on the road to Stillwater.

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.991	3	0.535	38	28.5	1	9.6	7	162.1	106

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/01	106	UNLV	17	at	11	Wisconsin	51	94.7%	146
2011/09/10	65	Oregon St.	0	at	7	Wisconsin	35	78.4%	153
2011/09/17	3	Wisconsin	49	vs	64	Northern Ill.	7	71.8%	160
2011/10/01	26	Nebraska	17	at	2	Wisconsin	48	66.2%	159
2011/10/15	95	Indiana	7	at	3	Wisconsin	59	95.3%	162
2011/10/22	3	Wisconsin	31	at	20	Michigan St.	17	72.7%	164
2011/10/29	3	Wisconsin	31	at	18	Ohio St.	17	72.3%	160
2011/11/05	79	Purdue	13	at	3	Wisconsin	48	94.5%	167
2011/11/12	3	Wisconsin	48	at	111	Minnesota	17	96.9%	164
2011/11/19	3	Wisconsin	31	at	31	Illinois	20	84.0%	165
2011/11/26	37	Penn State	14	at	3	Wisconsin	35	81.3%	162

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: October 29, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 72.3%
Notes: The next two weeks should be telling for Wisconsin, as they go on the road to face Michigan State and Ohio State. Neither offense should hold a candle to the #1 rated Badgers but their defenses may keep it close.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.983	4	0.542	26	27.4	2	8.9	4	167.1	53

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	107	SJSU	3	at	1	Stanford	57	98.2%	162
2011/09/10	1	Stanford	44	at	82	Duke	14	93.3%	155
2011/09/17	1	Stanford	37	at	37	Arizona	10	79.2%	155
2011/10/01	75	UCLA	19	at	3	Stanford	45	94.7%	152
2011/10/08	67	Colorado	7	at	4	Stanford	48	94.9%	155
2011/10/15	4	Stanford	44	at	66	Washington St.	14	90.8%	157
2011/10/22	30	Washington	20	at	4	Stanford	41	88.3%	167
2011/10/29	4	Stanford	38	at	27	USC	24	86.4%	166
2011/11/05	4	Stanford	41	at	81	Oregon St.	20	94.6%	169
2011/11/12	6	Oregon	28	at	4	Stanford	35	55.1%	171
2011/11/19	57	California	13	at	4	Stanford	42	91.4%	167
2011/11/26	17	Notre Dame	20	at	4	Stanford	38	81.5%	166

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.4
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 55.1%
Notes: They say that Stanford sold out of tickets for this weekend's game against Washington. Maybe so, but expect only 75% of the butts to show up in the seats. Oregon lies in waiting for the Cardinal.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.992	2	0.550	14	22.3	11	6.8	2	160.7	111

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	9	Oregon	27	vs	8	LSU	40	56.5%	184
2011/09/15	8	LSU	19	at	25	Mississippi St.	6	64.1%	150
2011/09/24	7	LSU	47	at	26	West Virginia	21	35.3%	188
2011/10/01	57	Kentucky	7	at	4	LSU	35	84.7%	162
2011/10/08	13	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	54.8%	141
2011/10/15	2	LSU	38	at	29	Tennessee	7	82.7%	143
2011/10/22	24	Auburn	17	at	2	LSU	31	87.0%	160
2011/11/05	2	LSU	24	at	1	Alabama	28	24.5%	159
2011/11/12	103	Western Kentucky	3	at	2	LSU	45	98.2%	160
2011/11/19	2	LSU	38	at	69	Mississippi	14	94.0%	161
2011/11/25	13	Arkansas	20	at	2	LSU	35	76.5%	163

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 24.5%
Notes: LSU is a very good football team with the misfortune of playing in Tuscaloosa on November 5. Suspensions may make their chances even worse.

Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.924	10	0.527	55	20.0	25	12.2	25	166.6	62

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	76	Troy	19	at	38	Clemson	43	80.0%	180
2011/09/17	16	Auburn	24	at	27	Clemson	38	45.7%	181
2011/09/24	12	Florida St.	30	at	16	Clemson	35	28.3%	166
2011/10/01	11	Clemson	23	at	19	Virginia Tech	3	37.6%	162
2011/10/08	91	Boston College	14	at	10	Clemson	36	84.8%	159
2011/10/15	10	Clemson	56	at	65	Maryland	45	77.3%	194
2011/10/22	42	North Carolina	21	at	10	Clemson	31	67.0%	164
2011/10/29	10	Clemson	28	at	39	Georgia Tech	24	62.1%	165
2011/11/12	82	Wake Forest	21	at	10	Clemson	38	83.7%	167
2011/11/19	10	Clemson	34	at	72	North Carolina St.	24	83.8%	166
2011/11/26	10	Clemson	24	at	11	South Carolina	28	43.1%	162

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-8.0
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 43.1%
Notes: No one expects the Spanish Inquisition or the Tigers to go undefeated. However, Stephen Garcia's dismissal and Marcus Lattimore's ACL tear makes it more likely than the odds indicate. Since this is an ACC team, expect Clemson to lose to NC State.

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.541	55	0.475	82	20.3	23	17.4	72	175.1	4

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	66	UCLA	34	at	67	Houston	38	50.7%	170
2011/09/10	63	Houston	48	at	111	North Texas	23	68.4%	186
2011/09/17	67	Houston	35	at	79	LA Tech	34	64.5%	205
2011/09/29	64	Houston	49	at	95	UTEP	42	75.5%	178
2011/10/08	93	East Carolina	3	at	57	Houston	56	56.0%	182
2011/10/22	99	Marshall	20	at	55	Houston	38	70.9%	170
2011/10/27	96	Rice	24	at	55	Houston	42	71.9%	172
2011/11/05	55	Houston	38	at	115	UAB	24	80.4%	169
2011/11/10	55	Houston	42	at	112	Tulane	24	83.3%	171
2011/11/19	50	SMU	31	at	55	Houston	32	54.4%	170
2011/11/25	55	Houston	31	at	63	Tulsa	34	42.9%	172

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.6
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 42.9%
Notes: The fact that Houston has only 1:12.6 odds of winning out despite playing nobody in the top 40 tells you all you need to know about the Cougars.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.941	9	0.552	12	25.9	6	14.1	44	172.6	9

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	113	LA-Lafayette	34	at	12	Oklahoma St.	61	94.4%	196
2011/09/08	32	Arizona	14	at	10	Oklahoma St.	37	53.2%	185
2011/09/18	9	Oklahoma St.	59	at	59	Tulsa	33	70.7%	202
2011/09/24	10	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	52.7%	199
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	70	89.9%	186
2011/10/15	9	Oklahoma St.	38	at	35	Texas	26	52.3%	184
2011/10/22	9	Oklahoma St.	34	at	28	Missouri	27	63.8%	173
2011/10/29	43	Baylor	27	at	9	Oklahoma St.	42	68.5%	172
2011/11/05	34	Kansas St.	24	at	9	Oklahoma St.	38	63.6%	169
2011/11/12	9	Oklahoma St.	38	at	44	Texas Tech	27	69.8%	176
2011/11/18	9	Oklahoma St.	42	at	83	Iowa St.	24	86.0%	170
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	28	at	9	Oklahoma St.	27	24.1%	171

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-24.9
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 24.1%
Notes: The BCS computers love the Cowboys, but the Cowboys have a really tough stretch to the finish line.

Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.745	34	0.528	52	20.9	20	14.3	46	166.2	68

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/17	106	Kent St.	0	at	50	Kansas St.	37	83.5%	153
2011/09/24	42	Kansas St.	28	at	40	Miami-FL	24	44.9%	144
2011/10/01	50	Baylor	35	at	44	Kansas St.	36	57.8%	168
2011/10/08	29	Missouri	17	at	38	Kansas St.	24	45.4%	161
2011/10/15	34	Kansas St.	41	at	44	Texas Tech	34	45.2%	193
2011/10/22	34	Kansas St.	42	at	91	Kansas	24	83.0%	169
2011/10/29	5	Oklahoma	35	at	34	Kansas St.	21	15.4%	168
2011/11/05	34	Kansas St.	24	at	9	Oklahoma St.	38	36.4%	169
2011/11/12	15	Texas A&M	31	at	34	Kansas St.	28	40.2%	168
2011/11/19	34	Kansas St.	28	at	35	Texas	31	46.4%	167
2011/12/03	83	Iowa St.	20	at	34	Kansas St.	38	77.9%	167

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-147.9
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 15.4%
Notes: Yes, we get it. Bill Snyder finds ways to win. Now, he has to find a way to beat Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas A&M.

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