Game of the Week
Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers
GUGS Score: 71.1
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nebraska | 0.757 | 0.541 | 49 | 24.4 | 23 | 15.5 | 22 | 166.2 | 61 |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 0.814 | 0.614 | 20 | 24.4 | 22 | 13.5 | 9 | 161.3 | 98 |
The Spartans are coming off a crazy last-second win against Wisconsin and have sole possession of first place in the Legends division of the Big 10. The Huskers are looking to get back on their feet after losing to the Badgers at the start of the month. This game is going to come down to defense. TFG has both teams with identical offensive efficiencies (24.4 PPH), but gives the slight defensive nod to Michigan State. This is before we factor in home field advantage, though; that bumps the coin toss in Nebraska's favor. This game won't be flashy, nor will it be pretty; both teams play slow and rely on their defense to keep them in it. TFG gives a slight nod to the Huskers, though. Nebraska 32, Michigan St. 31 (53.4%); 163 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nebraska | 0.810 | 0.531 | 45 | 21.5 | 15 | 13.9 | 41 | 166.8 | 60 |
| 14 | Michigan St. | 0.911 | 0.543 | 25 | 20.8 | 21 | 10.2 | 9 | 167.3 | 49 |
(14) Michigan State beat (4) Wisconsin, and Wisconsin drilled (24) Nebraska. Therefore, Michigan State should obliterate Nebraska, right? It doesn't work that way. The Spartans played unusually well last week to beat the Badgers, and we care about statistical expectations. The Spartans have the better defense at 0.9 +/- 18.6 PPH versus the Cornhuskers' 5.1 +/- 17.5 PPH. However, the Cornhuskers have a better offense at 30.1 +/- 17.2 PPH versus 31.1 +/- 20.7. The difference works out in the Spartans' favor, even after taking home field advantage into account, but only slightly. RBA favors Michigan State, 29-28, with 62.7% confidence.
Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes
GUGS Score: 70.9
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Ohio St. | 0.860 | 0.530 | 46 | 18.4 | 43 | 9.8 | 8 | 159.3 | 117 |
| 4 | Wisconsin | 0.975 | 0.534 | 39 | 28.3 | 2 | 10.8 | 15 | 162.0 | 107 |
That (21) Ohio State? The Buckeyes haven't looked pretty this year, offensively, but they haven't really needed to with a stout 3.3 +/- 13.0 PPH defense. Hail Marys aside, (4) Wisconsin has looked great so far on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Badgers' offensive efficiency is greater than a touchdown per hundred plays over the Buckeyes. They also boast a similar defense. In other words, the only thing keeping this game within two scores is home field advantage. RBA picks Wisconsin, 31-20, with 76.4% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ohio St. | 0.834 | 0.547 | 46 | 22.5 | 36 | 11.8 | 5 | 158.8 | 110 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 0.878 | 0.509 | 62 | 32.2 | 3 | 14.6 | 19 | 158.6 | 111 |
More Big 10 action in our UFIO game of the week. The Buckeyes have dropped off a cliff offensively, but their defense remains top-notch. If you need proof that the Buckeyes can win games with essentially no offense, see the Illinois game. Last week's game showed that the Badgers' offense was mortal, but is still the third-best in FBS behind Alabama and LSU. This game will be even slower and uglier than Michigan State/Nebraska, but one again home field advantage comes into play. Ohio State needs to get some offense going -- the Badger defense is vulnerable -- in order to make this a game, but TFG likes their odds. Ohio St. 33, Wisconsin 30 (52.9%); 158 plays.
Shootout of the Week
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys
GUGS Score: 48.6
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Oklahoma St. | 0.800 | 0.559 | 38 | 26.9 | 9 | 15.4 | 20 | 181.5 | 3 |
| 50 | Baylor | 0.562 | 0.603 | 24 | 23.8 | 28 | 21.5 | 76 | 174.6 | 16 |
This is the second-easiest game the Cowboys have left this year, so expect them to try and make the most of it. Baylor's defense isn't even in the top half of FBS, which doesn't bode well. They're going to compound that by playing fast, which is exactly what Oklahoma State wants them to do. Unfortunately for the Cowboys and their TFG ranking -- which I'm sure they're losing sleep worrying about -- such a prolific offensive display won't exactly encourage them to play solid defense, slowing their rise in the rankings. In the end this one won't be close. Oklahoma St. 45, Baylor 33 (83.3%); 178 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Oklahoma St. | 0.941 | 0.551 | 12 | 26.2 | 5 | 14.0 | 42 | 172.7 | 9 |
| 42 | Baylor | 0.675 | 0.565 | 3 | 21.8 | 13 | 17.5 | 74 | 171.8 | 14 |
Brandon Weeden and Robert Griffin III should light up the scoreboard in this one. (8) Oklahoma State may have its ups and downs offensively, but they're one of the the most consistent defensive teams in college football (14.9 -/+ 1.6 PPH). Unfortunately, they're considently average. The good news is that Baylor is even worse at 5.1 +/- 24.8 PPH. Both offenses should rock against nationally average defenses, although the Bears (27.5 +/- 11.5 PPH) should be more consistent than the Cowboys (38.0 +/- 23.6 PPH). If Oklahoma State has an off day, Baylor is perfectly capable of beating them, but it's going to take a pretty big collapse to overcome the Cowboys. RBA predicts an Oklahoma State 45-27 victory with 68.5% probability.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
GUGS Score: 34.2
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | Middle Tenn. | 0.170 | 0.412 | 120 | 12.9 | 91 | 22.7 | 110 | 168.0 | 44 |
| 90 | LA-Lafayette | 0.246 | 0.427 | 119 | 15.9 | 64 | 21.0 | 103 | 167.1 | 55 |
They're not good, but the (90) Ragin' Cajuns are consistent offensively at 16.9 +/- 2.0 PPH. In contrast, (96) Middle Tennessee is closer to the national average for offensive variance at 20.5 +/- 15.0 PPH. Defensively, the Blue Raiders are marginally better, but more flaky (9.3 +/- 26.7 PPH versus 12.5 +/- 17.0 PPH). Bad teams are generally inconsistent, so this game really is a coin toss. If all goes according to plan, RBA expecteds LA-Lafayette to win a tight one, 29-28, with 67.5% probability.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | Middle Tenn. | 0.264 | 0.255 | 119 | 15.7 | 94 | 23.7 | 91 | 180.8 | 4 |
| 95 | LA-Lafayette | 0.254 | 0.311 | 114 | 18.1 | 74 | 27.8 | 111 | 166.8 | 55 |
I know. I know. "Who?" This one is the definition of "regional game." It does, however, happen to be the game on which Eddie and I disagree the most. Unfortunately for Louisiana-Lafayette, MTSU is the better team and they're playing at home. Middle Tenn. 39, LA-Lafayette 34 (62.9%); 173 plays.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 35.36 - 12.64 | 73.67% |
| TFG | 35.09 - 12.91 | 73.11% |
