Friday, October 28, 2011

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2011-10-23




Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.950 7 0.461 93 26.2 6 9.7 7 168.9 32

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  24 Georgia 21 vs   3 Boise St. 35 66.8% 159
2011/09/16   4 Boise St. 40 at  70 Toledo 15 96.4% 181
2011/09/24  56 Tulsa 21 at   5 Boise St. 41 89.8% 162
2011/10/01  58 Nevada 10 at   6 Boise St. 30 91.0% 159
2011/10/07   7 Boise St. 57 at  75 Fresno St. 7 91.9% 161
2011/10/15   7 Boise St. 63 at 106 Colorado St. 13 98.1% 162
2011/10/22  58 Air Force 26 at   7 Boise St. 37 90.0% 158
2011/11/05   7 Boise St. 52 at 120 UNLV 17 98.7% 167
2011/11/12  13 TCU 21 at   7 Boise St. 34 76.7% 168
2011/11/19   7 Boise St. 35 at  56 SDSU 21 92.0% 168
2011/11/26 104 Wyoming 7 at   7 Boise St. 55 98.2% 167
2011/12/03 116 New Mexico 6 at   7 Boise St. 66 99.4% 167


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 76.7%
Notes: Boise State got a bit of a scare last week, but they continue towards TCU and their undefeated season. As Oklahoma and Wisconsin demonstrated, no team is safe, but the Broncos are the safest of the bunch this week.


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 1 0.548 17 26.3 4 4.9 1 157.2 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  97 Kent St. 7 at   2 Alabama 48 98.2% 172
2011/09/10   3 Alabama 27 at  37 Penn State 11 89.4% 164
2011/09/17 108 North Texas 0 at   2 Alabama 41 98.1% 153
2011/09/24  19 Arkansas 14 at   2 Alabama 38 74.7% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at  10 Florida 10 70.5% 146
2011/10/08  58 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 94.6% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  69 Mississippi 7 97.8% 141
2011/10/22  35 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 93.0% 138
2011/11/05   3 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 73.0% 158
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 31 at  34 Mississippi St. 13 95.0% 159
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 34 at  31 Auburn 17 95.5% 158


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 73.0%
Notes: The Crimson Tide get a week off to prepare for their showdown with LSU in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama remains a 3:1 favorite (and possibly more if suspensions extend).


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 2 0.541 27 28.9 1 9.2 5 167.1 52

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 107 SJSU 3 at   1 Stanford 57 98.2% 162
2011/09/10   1 Stanford 44 at  82 Duke 14 93.3% 155
2011/09/17   1 Stanford 37 at  37 Arizona 10 79.2% 155
2011/10/01  75 UCLA 19 at   3 Stanford 45 94.7% 152
2011/10/08  67 Colorado 7 at   4 Stanford 48 94.9% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  66 Washington St. 14 90.8% 157
2011/10/22  33 Washington 21 at   2 Stanford 65 88.3% 159
2011/10/29   2 Stanford 38 at  20 USC 27 83.9% 166
2011/11/05   2 Stanford 41 at  67 Oregon St. 20 95.0% 169
2011/11/12   5 Oregon 28 at   2 Stanford 38 55.2% 171
2011/11/19  54 California 14 at   2 Stanford 42 92.3% 167
2011/11/26  22 Notre Dame 17 at   2 Stanford 41 80.2% 166


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.1
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 55.2%
Notes: Stanford remains a very good team with the misfortune of playing a toss-up game against the Oregon Ducks in three weeks. Depending on how Oklahoma-Oklahoma State plays out, it may be the most meaningful game in Stanford history.


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 3 0.551 13 23.8 9 6.5 2 160.6 111

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   9 Oregon 27 vs   8 LSU 40 56.5% 184
2011/09/15   8 LSU 19 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 64.1% 150
2011/09/24   7 LSU 47 at  26 West Virginia 21 35.3% 188
2011/10/01  57 Kentucky 7 at   4 LSU 35 84.7% 162
2011/10/08  13 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 54.8% 141
2011/10/15   2 LSU 38 at  29 Tennessee 7 82.7% 143
2011/10/22  31 Auburn 10 at   3 LSU 45 87.0% 144
2011/11/05   3 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 27.0% 158
2011/11/12  99 Western Kentucky 3 at   3 LSU 48 98.5% 160
2011/11/19   3 LSU 38 at  70 Mississippi 14 95.5% 161
2011/11/25  16 Arkansas 20 at   3 LSU 38 77.1% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.1
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 27.0%
Notes: The Tigers' season rests upon their game with Alabama in two weeks. If they manage to upset the Crimson Tide, Arkansas becomes their only impediment to the SEC championship.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.941 8 0.551 12 26.2 5 14.0 42 172.7 9

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 113 LA-Lafayette 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 61 94.4% 196
2011/09/08  32 Arizona 14 at  10 Oklahoma St. 37 53.2% 185
2011/09/18   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  59 Tulsa 33 70.7% 202
2011/09/24  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 52.7% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 70 89.9% 186
2011/10/15   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  35 Texas 26 52.3% 184
2011/10/22   8 Oklahoma St. 45 at  28 Missouri 24 63.8% 187
2011/10/29  42 Baylor 27 at   8 Oklahoma St. 45 68.5% 172
2011/11/05  30 Kansas St. 24 at   8 Oklahoma St. 38 62.8% 169
2011/11/12   8 Oklahoma St. 38 at  39 Texas Tech 28 70.6% 176
2011/11/18   8 Oklahoma St. 42 at  85 Iowa St. 24 87.8% 170
2011/12/03   6 Oklahoma 27 at   8 Oklahoma St. 28 72.3% 171


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs Kansas State Wildcats, 62.8%
Notes: Oklahoma's small shift in defensive efficiency turns Oklahoma State into the favorite and makes Kansas State the most likely team to defeat the Cowboys.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.611 46 0.475 83 20.8 22 17.4 73 175.1 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  66 UCLA 34 at  67 Houston 38 50.7% 170
2011/09/10  63 Houston 48 at 111 North Texas 23 68.4% 186
2011/09/17  67 Houston 35 at  79 LA Tech 34 64.5% 205
2011/09/29  64 Houston 49 at  95 UTEP 42 75.5% 178
2011/10/08  93 East Carolina 3 at  57 Houston 56 56.0% 182
2011/10/22  98 Marshall 28 at  46 Houston 63 70.9% 169
2011/10/27  95 Rice 24 at  46 Houston 48 81.7% 172
2011/11/05  46 Houston 41 at 114 UAB 24 86.7% 169
2011/11/10  46 Houston 45 at 117 Tulane 24 89.9% 171
2011/11/19  53 SMU 28 at  46 Houston 31 50.7% 170
2011/11/25  46 Houston 35 at  60 Tulsa 34 56.9% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.4
Most difficult game left: November 19, vs SMU Mustangs, 50.7%
Notes: Technically, the Cougars have a decent shot at winning out, but it doesn't really matter because Houston has absolutely zero chance of making a BCS bowl. When you have a toss-up against SMU, you really don't deserve one.


Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.932 9 0.526 58 21.3 17 12.9 28 166.7 61

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  76 Troy 19 at  38 Clemson 43 80.0% 180
2011/09/17  16 Auburn 24 at  27 Clemson 38 45.7% 181
2011/09/24  12 Florida St. 30 at  16 Clemson 35 28.3% 166
2011/10/01  11 Clemson 23 at  19 Virginia Tech 3 37.6% 162
2011/10/08  91 Boston College 14 at  10 Clemson 36 84.8% 159
2011/10/15  10 Clemson 56 at  65 Maryland 45 77.3% 194
2011/10/22  45 North Carolina 38 at   9 Clemson 59 67.0% 181
2011/10/29   9 Clemson 31 at  44 Georgia Tech 24 62.2% 165
2011/11/12  82 Wake Forest 21 at   9 Clemson 38 82.1% 167
2011/11/19   9 Clemson 34 at  65 North Carolina St. 27 77.3% 166
2011/11/26   9 Clemson 24 at  11 South Carolina 28 38.8% 162


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.5
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 38.8%
Notes: Clemson just keeps winning, and injuries make that South Carolina game look a lot better than the computer thinks right now.


Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.766 30 0.527 57 22.4 11 14.6 47 166.2 69

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/17 106 Kent St. 0 at  50 Kansas St. 37 83.5% 153
2011/09/24  42 Kansas St. 28 at  40 Miami-FL 24 44.9% 144
2011/10/01  50 Baylor 35 at  44 Kansas St. 36 57.8% 168
2011/10/08  29 Missouri 17 at  38 Kansas St. 24 45.4% 161
2011/10/15  34 Kansas St. 41 at  44 Texas Tech 34 45.2% 193
2011/10/22  30 Kansas St. 59 at  93 Kansas 21 83.0% 166
2011/10/29   6 Oklahoma 35 at  30 Kansas St. 21 18.5% 168
2011/11/05  30 Kansas St. 24 at   8 Oklahoma St. 38 37.2% 169
2011/11/12  15 Texas A&M 31 at  30 Kansas St. 28 38.3% 169
2011/11/19  30 Kansas St. 27 at  32 Texas 31 47.2% 167
2011/12/03  85 Iowa St. 20 at  30 Kansas St. 41 81.0% 167


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-99.2
Most difficult game left: October 29, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 18.5%
Notes: Bill Snyder is an amazing coach, but this the Wildcats have quite the gauntlet in the coming four weeks.


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