Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2011-10-23

Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.969	1	0.575	35	35.1	1	8.8	1	153.1	120

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	100	Kent St.	7	at	3	Alabama	48	98.6%	172
2011/09/10	2	Alabama	27	at	33	Penn State	11	79.5%	164
2011/09/17	106	North Texas	0	at	1	Alabama	41	99.1%	153
2011/09/24	12	Arkansas	14	at	1	Alabama	38	86.1%	145
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	3	Florida	10	58.5%	146
2011/10/08	86	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	98.5%	140
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	52	at	72	Mississippi	7	96.9%	141
2011/10/22	42	Tennessee	6	at	1	Alabama	37	96.9%	138
2011/11/05	2	LSU	32	at	1	Alabama	36	71.9%	154
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	38	at	37	Mississippi St.	21	94.1%	161
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	42	at	29	Auburn	27	92.9%	159

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 71.9%
Notes: The Crimson Tide have a week off before their last serious challenge. It wasn't that long ago that Alabama was the underdog and ultimately the spoiler. Hopefully they can avoid being on the flip side of that equation.

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.918	3	0.468	74	30.9	5	11.8	6	163.5	82

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	23	Georgia	21	vs	2	Boise St.	35	84.9%	159
2011/09/16	2	Boise St.	40	at	65	Toledo	15	89.8%	181
2011/09/24	52	Tulsa	21	at	2	Boise St.	41	93.1%	162
2011/10/01	45	Nevada	10	at	2	Boise St.	30	91.2%	159
2011/10/07	2	Boise St.	57	at	72	Fresno St.	7	90.9%	161
2011/10/15	2	Boise St.	63	at	109	Colorado St.	13	98.2%	162
2011/10/22	62	Air Force	26	at	3	Boise St.	37	95.9%	158
2011/11/05	3	Boise St.	48	at	115	UNLV	20	98.7%	163
2011/11/12	8	TCU	31	at	3	Boise St.	36	69.8%	162
2011/11/19	3	Boise St.	41	at	66	SDSU	24	92.6%	167
2011/11/26	108	Wyoming	21	at	3	Boise St.	46	98.1%	165
2011/12/03	120	New Mexico	17	at	3	Boise St.	50	99.5%	165

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 69.8%
Notes: A slight scare last week, but beat TCU and they go to nearly 1-to-1 odds of finishing perfect.

Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.912	4	0.482	67	31.4	4	12.3	7	160.8	100

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	115	SJSU	3	at	6	Stanford	57	98.8%	162
2011/09/10	6	Stanford	44	at	90	Duke	14	91.4%	155
2011/09/17	5	Stanford	37	at	40	Arizona	10	76.6%	155
2011/10/01	76	UCLA	19	at	4	Stanford	45	95.3%	152
2011/10/08	76	Colorado	7	at	5	Stanford	48	95.2%	155
2011/10/15	4	Stanford	44	at	82	Washington St.	14	93.1%	157
2011/10/22	44	Washington	21	at	4	Stanford	65	91.4%	159
2011/10/29	4	Stanford	36	at	24	USC	31	69.6%	163
2011/11/05	4	Stanford	40	at	59	Oregon St.	26	89.2%	164
2011/11/12	5	Oregon	34	at	4	Stanford	37	56.6%	173
2011/11/19	53	California	25	at	4	Stanford	39	89.4%	164
2011/11/26	20	Notre Dame	28	at	4	Stanford	37	77.2%	165

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.1
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 56.6%
Notes: Unfortunately for Stanford, Oregon keeps getting better, even with their key injuries. On a side note: look at Stanford's schedule to date and the ranks of their opponents. Now look at Boise State's. Now look at Stanford's. Now explain why Stanford currently has more respect than Boise.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.936	2	0.677	5	33.5	2	11.5	3	156.7	115

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	5	Oregon	27	vs	9	LSU	40	45.4%	184
2011/09/15	7	LSU	19	at	35	Mississippi St.	6	69.4%	150
2011/09/24	5	LSU	47	at	21	West Virginia	21	64.4%	188
2011/10/01	62	Kentucky	7	at	5	LSU	35	93.0%	162
2011/10/08	7	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	66.6%	141
2011/10/15	3	LSU	38	at	32	Tennessee	7	81.4%	143
2011/10/22	24	Auburn	10	at	2	LSU	45	88.6%	144
2011/11/05	2	LSU	32	at	1	Alabama	36	28.1%	154
2011/11/12	97	Western Kentucky	21	at	2	LSU	46	98.0%	158
2011/11/19	2	LSU	44	at	74	Mississippi	24	95.3%	159
2011/11/25	15	Arkansas	31	at	2	LSU	41	80.8%	163

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 28.1%
Notes: Beat Alabama and the SEC West is yours, LSU. Well, after you beat Arkansas. But then it's completely yours.

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.589	46	0.357	105	24.9	18	21.6	77	179.3	6

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%	170
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%	186
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%	205
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%	178
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	3	at	66	Houston	56	67.1%	182
2011/10/22	94	Marshall	28	at	52	Houston	63	84.8%	169
2011/10/27	98	Rice	31	at	46	Houston	45	87.2%	174
2011/11/05	46	Houston	43	at	109	UAB	31	85.9%	172
2011/11/10	46	Houston	47	at	113	Tulane	31	88.4%	170
2011/11/19	54	SMU	35	at	46	Houston	37	54.9%	170
2011/11/25	46	Houston	39	at	49	Tulsa	37	51.7%	177

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.3
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 51.7%
Notes: Next.

Long Shots

Clemson Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.752	21	0.589	28	24.6	19	15.8	25	169.8	36

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	68	Troy	19	at	34	Clemson	43	80.6%	180
2011/09/17	14	Auburn	24	at	26	Clemson	38	47.7%	181
2011/09/24	13	Florida St.	30	at	28	Clemson	35	49.2%	166
2011/10/01	23	Clemson	23	at	11	Virginia Tech	3	26.8%	162
2011/10/08	88	Boston College	14	at	13	Clemson	36	92.0%	159
2011/10/15	19	Clemson	56	at	55	Maryland	45	67.3%	194
2011/10/22	40	North Carolina	38	at	23	Clemson	59	73.6%	181
2011/10/29	21	Clemson	35	at	41	Georgia Tech	33	55.2%	162
2011/11/12	72	Wake Forest	28	at	21	Clemson	39	82.9%	170
2011/11/19	21	Clemson	37	at	57	North Carolina St.	30	73.1%	168
2011/11/26	21	Clemson	32	at	17	South Carolina	34	48.5%	165

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.2
Most difficult game left: November 26, at South Carolina Gamecocks, 48.5%
Notes: Apparently Clemson is playing a football variant of "The First Team to 60 Wins". That's probably not the safest route to an undefeated season.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.800	12	0.559	38	26.9	9	15.4	20	181.5	3

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	110	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	Oklahoma St.	61	96.7%	196
2011/09/08	34	Arizona	14	at	22	Oklahoma St.	37	69.2%	185
2011/09/18	15	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	Tulsa	33	66.1%	202
2011/09/24	17	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	38.3%	199
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	18	Oklahoma St.	70	91.8%	186
2011/10/15	15	Oklahoma St.	38	at	29	Texas	26	51.6%	184
2011/10/22	15	Oklahoma St.	45	at	22	Missouri	24	42.6%	187
2011/10/29	50	Baylor	33	at	12	Oklahoma St.	45	83.3%	178
2011/11/05	30	Kansas St.	34	at	12	Oklahoma St.	39	68.1%	170
2011/11/12	12	Oklahoma St.	40	at	35	Texas Tech	35	66.0%	183
2011/11/18	12	Oklahoma St.	42	at	86	Iowa St.	27	89.4%	179
2011/12/03	6	Oklahoma	37	at	12	Oklahoma St.	34	34.6%	180

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-8.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 34.6%
Notes: They've gone from 3-to-1 underdogs to 2-to-1 underdogs. At least they're moving in the right direction.

Absolute Phonies

Kansas State Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.690	30	0.513	58	26.2	10	19.0	60	159.2	106

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/17	104	Kent St.	0	at	57	Kansas St.	37	89.0%	153
2011/09/24	38	Kansas St.	28	at	15	Miami-FL	24	25.3%	144
2011/10/01	46	Baylor	35	at	36	Kansas St.	36	68.7%	168
2011/10/08	23	Missouri	17	at	35	Kansas St.	24	49.3%	161
2011/10/15	30	Kansas St.	41	at	43	Texas Tech	34	48.6%	193
2011/10/22	33	Kansas St.	59	at	87	Kansas	21	73.3%	166
2011/10/29	6	Oklahoma	36	at	30	Kansas St.	33	32.2%	169
2011/11/05	30	Kansas St.	34	at	12	Oklahoma St.	39	31.9%	170
2011/11/12	14	Texas A&M	35	at	30	Kansas St.	34	41.9%	168
2011/11/19	30	Kansas St.	34	at	32	Texas	33	52.1%	161
2011/12/03	86	Iowa St.	28	at	30	Kansas St.	39	82.3%	168

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-54.2
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 31.9%
Notes: This patient has one week, two weeks, tops.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.