The Tempo-Free Gridiron: November 2011

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,C-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

ACC Atlantic: Clemson
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
C-USA East: Southern Miss.
C-USA West: Houston
Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,C-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

ACC Atlantic: Clemson
ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
C-USA East: Southern Miss.
C-USA West: Houston
Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 13: Saturday Recap

This week we're bringing something new to the recaps: in-game win probabilities. We're still working on bringing these graphs to you live on game day -- hence the "beta" tag -- but for now we're hoping they add an extra bit of insight into how each game unfolded.

Week 13
System	Expected		Actual
System	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	39.4 - 13.6	74.3	40 - 13	75.5
TFG	38.5 - 14.5	72.7	39 - 14	73.6

Game of the Week

Florida State Seminoles 21, Florida Gators 7; 152 plays

Justin

(11) Florida St. 31, (16) Florida 30 (54.7%); 158 plays

Even in defeat, TFG continues to overestimate the Gators. Even though Florida State is better than their record would indicate, Florida should have at least made a game of it. By halftime the game was pretty much a lock. The Seminoles had a 14-point lead and were just shy of 90% likely to win. An ugly game, but a win's a win.

Eddie

(17) Florida 28, (14) Florida St. 24 (63.0%); 163 plays

We said this would be unpredictable. Well, nobody saw the two teams combining for 279 total yards and five turnovers. Unlike LSU-Alabama, which was a hard-hitting game with a bunch of missed field goals, this game was completely forgettable thanks to sloppy play all around. RBA missed the pick, but I get the joy of watching my Florida and Florida State officemates go back and forth for the next few weeks.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers 45, Penn State Nittany Lions 7; 155 plays

Eddie

(6) Wisconsin 34, (31) Penn State 17 (79.7%); 162 plays

Chalk up another one for the Unstoppable Force. I was a bit more pessimistic about the Penn State offense than Justin, and they delivered. The game was higher scoring than expected, largely due to Penn State's turnover problem. When you keep turning the ball over on your side of the field, you're going to surrender points, especially against an offense like Wisconsin's.

Justin

(6) Wisconsin 36, (22) Penn State 26 (70.7%); 162 plays

This game was going to be an uphill battle for the Nittany Lions, but they started strong with a 7-0 lead. It was downhill from there. This was another one that was over by halftime. Even with a slow pace, the Badgers proved they've got a dominating offense.

Unstoppable Force 9, Immovable Object 3

Shootout of the Week

Baylor Bears 66, Texas Tech Red Raiders 42; 210 plays

Justin

(50) Baylor 41, (71) Texas Tech 36 (63.1%); 178 plays

A game with 210 plays and 108 total points. I'll have to check, but that might set a record for highest combined offensive efficiency in a game (51.4 PPH). Despite being underdogs and down by 10 with about 12 minutes left, the Red Raiders still had a 1-in-4 shot of winning. And that, folks, is why playing "the first to 60 wins" is a bad strategy.

Eddie

(50) Baylor 38, (63) Texas Tech 31 (58.6%); 175 plays

Jackpot. This game was way higher scoring than expected, making it the perfect shootout. 210 plays in a non-overtime game is absolutely ridiculous. Interestingly, they hit 210 plays despite Baylor running for 360 yards without RG3. Good thing Texas Tech fired Mike Leach; they might become an embarrassment.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Florida Atlantic Owls 38, UAB Blazers 35; 159 plays

Eddie

(117) FL-Atlantic 31, (118) UAB 27 (73.7%); 164 plays

A football game was played. RBA picked the winner, despite them being winless on the season. I'll consider that a positive.

Justin

(112) UAB 36, (117) FL-Atlantic 33 (70.3%); 163 plays

Dammit, another loss. Eddie: I promise I'll tweak it so it'll stop choosing these "who-the-f*ck-are-these-guys" games.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 6, RBA 5.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
System	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	485.7 - 170.3	74.0	481 - 175	73.3
RBA	482.8 - 173.2	73.6	473 - 183	72.1

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Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2011-11-27

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.941	2	0.649	5	33.3	3	11.0	2	154.9	118

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	5	Oregon	27	vs	9	LSU	40	45.4%	184
2011/09/15	7	LSU	19	at	35	Mississippi St.	6	69.4%	150
2011/09/24	5	LSU	47	at	21	West Virginia	21	64.4%	188
2011/10/01	62	Kentucky	7	at	5	LSU	35	93.0%	162
2011/10/08	7	Florida	11	at	3	LSU	41	66.6%	141
2011/10/15	3	LSU	38	at	32	Tennessee	7	81.4%	143
2011/10/22	24	Auburn	10	at	2	LSU	45	88.6%	144
2011/11/05	2	LSU	9	at	1	Alabama	6	27.4%	143
2011/11/12	97	Western Kentucky	9	at	2	LSU	42	98.0%	151
2011/11/19	2	LSU	52	at	87	Mississippi	3	96.6%	139
2011/11/25	9	Arkansas	17	at	2	LSU	41	78.2%	149
2011/12/03	2	LSU	39	vs	17	Georgia	29	82.8%	158

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 82.8%
Notes: At this point LSU is a lock for the title game. Even a loss to Georgia wouldn't derail them, but that seems unlikely. A loss to the Bulldogs would potentially affect who the Tigers play in the title game -- there are limits to the number of teams from a single conference that can be in the BCS -- but we're shaping up for an LSU/Alabama rematch.

Houston Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.721	23	0.335	111	26.7	12	18.2	53	180.0	5

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	78	UCLA	34	at	63	Houston	38	74.5%	170
2011/09/10	65	Houston	48	at	109	North Texas	23	73.3%	186
2011/09/17	63	Houston	35	at	77	LA Tech	34	51.2%	205
2011/09/29	63	Houston	49	at	96	UTEP	42	62.1%	178
2011/10/08	80	East Carolina	3	at	66	Houston	56	67.1%	182
2011/10/22	94	Marshall	28	at	52	Houston	63	84.8%	169
2011/10/27	98	Rice	34	at	46	Houston	73	87.2%	179
2011/11/05	40	Houston	56	at	112	UAB	13	89.2%	176
2011/11/10	35	Houston	73	at	114	Tulane	17	91.3%	187
2011/11/19	65	SMU	7	at	32	Houston	37	68.8%	167
2011/11/25	27	Houston	48	at	30	Tulsa	16	53.1%	190
2011/12/03	43	Southern Miss.	35	vs	23	Houston	39	63.2%	177

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 63.2%
Notes: To be fair to the Cougars, they're not quite 2007 Hawaii but aren't exactly 2006 Boise State yet. They would get totally thrashed if they played LSU or Alabama -- who wouldn't? -- but are getting to the point where they'd have a small shot against someone like Virginia Tech or Stanford.

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2011-11-27

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.874	6	0.556	50	30.9	5	14.3	13	162.7	89

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	115	SJSU	3	at	6	Stanford	57	98.8%	162
2011/09/10	6	Stanford	44	at	90	Duke	14	91.4%	155
2011/09/17	5	Stanford	37	at	40	Arizona	10	76.6%	155
2011/10/01	76	UCLA	19	at	4	Stanford	45	95.3%	152
2011/10/08	76	Colorado	7	at	5	Stanford	48	95.2%	155
2011/10/15	4	Stanford	44	at	82	Washington St.	14	93.1%	157
2011/10/22	44	Washington	21	at	4	Stanford	65	91.4%	159
2011/10/29	4	Stanford	56	at	24	USC	48	69.6%	191
2011/11/05	4	Stanford	38	at	61	Oregon St.	13	88.6%	149
2011/11/12	7	Oregon	53	at	4	Stanford	30	59.7%	166
2011/11/19	51	California	28	at	7	Stanford	31	84.8%	152
2011/11/26	15	Notre Dame	14	at	7	Stanford	28	65.8%	174

Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Stanford's season is over, and all that's left to do is wait and see if they get an at-large bid. The Cardinal are one of three teams currently splitting the "anyone-but-Alabama" votes in the BCS poll.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.962	1	0.616	14	33.4	2	9.1	1	152.3	120

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	100	Kent St.	7	at	3	Alabama	48	98.6%	172
2011/09/10	2	Alabama	27	at	33	Penn State	11	79.5%	164
2011/09/17	106	North Texas	0	at	1	Alabama	41	99.1%	153
2011/09/24	12	Arkansas	14	at	1	Alabama	38	86.1%	145
2011/10/01	1	Alabama	38	at	3	Florida	10	58.5%	146
2011/10/08	86	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	98.5%	140
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	52	at	72	Mississippi	7	96.9%	141
2011/10/22	42	Tennessee	6	at	1	Alabama	37	96.9%	138
2011/11/05	2	LSU	9	at	1	Alabama	6	72.6%	143
2011/11/12	1	Alabama	24	at	39	Mississippi St.	7	93.7%	155
2011/11/26	1	Alabama	42	at	39	Auburn	14	94.7%	136

Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0

Notes: Like Stanford, the Crimson Tide are done for now and just waiting to see where they end up. Again, if the BCS wants an LSU/Alabama rematch, it'd be difficult to argue against that.

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.815	9	0.502	66	24.4	21	13.5	7	158.0	109

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/10	9	Virginia Tech	17	at	72	East Carolina	10	83.3%	150
2011/09/17	85	Arkansas St.	7	at	11	Virginia Tech	26	93.5%	163
2011/09/24	11	Virginia Tech	30	at	99	Marshall	10	92.2%	157
2011/10/01	23	Clemson	23	at	11	Virginia Tech	3	73.2%	162
2011/10/08	29	Miami-FL	35	at	11	Virginia Tech	38	69.5%	146
2011/10/15	13	Virginia Tech	38	at	71	Wake Forest	17	78.7%	167
2011/10/22	88	Boston College	14	at	12	Virginia Tech	30	93.2%	158
2011/10/29	13	Virginia Tech	14	at	81	Duke	10	81.9%	162
2011/11/10	12	Virginia Tech	37	at	37	Georgia Tech	26	64.2%	147
2011/11/17	43	North Carolina	21	at	13	Virginia Tech	24	70.1%	157
2011/11/26	14	Virginia Tech	38	at	66	Virginia	0	80.1%	151
2011/12/03	9	Virginia Tech	34	vs	35	Clemson	28	72.1%	164

Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Clemson Tigers, 72.1%
Notes: They Hokies get a shot at the team that beat them in a freak upset. Then again, freak upsets aren't all that uncommon. Virginia Tech is the second team that's getting "anyone-but-Alabama" title attention, but they are currently much less deserving than Stanford.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.800	12	0.536	55	27.7	9	15.9	27	181.2	4

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Odds	Plays
2011/09/03	110	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	Oklahoma St.	61	96.7%	196
2011/09/08	34	Arizona	14	at	22	Oklahoma St.	37	69.2%	185
2011/09/18	15	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	Tulsa	33	66.1%	202
2011/09/24	17	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	Texas A&M	29	38.3%	199
2011/10/08	89	Kansas	28	at	18	Oklahoma St.	70	91.8%	186
2011/10/15	15	Oklahoma St.	38	at	29	Texas	26	51.6%	184
2011/10/22	15	Oklahoma St.	45	at	22	Missouri	24	42.6%	187
2011/10/29	50	Baylor	24	at	12	Oklahoma St.	59	83.3%	190
2011/11/05	35	Kansas St.	45	at	10	Oklahoma St.	52	75.4%	181
2011/11/12	11	Oklahoma St.	66	at	60	Texas Tech	6	77.1%	179
2011/11/18	9	Oklahoma St.	31	at	77	Iowa St.	37	88.6%	211
2011/12/03	5	Oklahoma	38	at	12	Oklahoma St.	35	36.3%	180

Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 36.3%
Notes: This is one of those games that's going to depend on one factor my computer doesn't consider: injuries. Right now the computer says that the Sooners are 2-to-1 favorites, but Vegas lists the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite. Currently Oklahoma State is the third -- and least-deserving -- of the "anyone-but-Alabama" teams. Hopefully a loss to the Sooners will cut back on the chaos some.

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Monday, November 28, 2011

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Houston (0.180); North Carolina St. (0.075); Iowa St. (0.067); Temple (0.049); Southern Miss. (0.045)

Biggest drops: Clemson (-0.135); Colorado (-0.070); Auburn (-0.056); Washington (-0.051); Miami-FL (-0.048)

Full rankings after the jump.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.549	13	26.1	5	5.1	1	156.9	120
2	--	LSU	1.000	0.548	17	26.7	4	6.6	2	160.2	113
3	--	Oregon	0.983	0.531	46	25.3	7	9.9	5	176.2	3
4	+2	Wisconsin	0.975	0.533	42	28.4	1	10.8	16	161.6	107
5	-1	Oklahoma	0.974	0.542	26	23.5	10	10.0	7	171.6	14
6	-1	Oklahoma St.	0.966	0.548	16	26.8	3	14.0	46	173.3	7
7	--	Stanford	0.958	0.544	23	27.5	2	10.8	14	167.0	53
8	+1	Boise St.	0.941	0.463	93	26.0	6	11.8	21	168.8	34
9	+1	South Carolina	0.931	0.544	22	20.9	21	10.0	6	157.9	119
10	-2	Arkansas	0.931	0.566	1	23.7	8	11.5	20	165.5	78
11	+3	Florida St.	0.930	0.549	14	19.2	33	9.7	4	165.8	75
12	-1	Georgia	0.922	0.548	15	22.8	13	10.7	13	159.5	114
13	-1	USC	0.913	0.533	41	22.0	16	10.6	11	166.8	58
14	-1	TCU	0.912	0.465	91	23.6	9	13.4	36	167.9	43
15	+6	Michigan	0.886	0.542	28	22.8	14	12.0	26	167.8	45
16	+6	Texas A&M	0.885	0.555	9	22.6	15	12.0	23	172.7	11
17	--	Florida	0.877	0.556	8	20.4	24	7.9	3	161.3	109
18	+2	Michigan St.	0.874	0.541	29	20.0	25	10.8	15	167.1	52
19	NA	Southern Miss.	0.870	0.482	76	20.9	22	15.3	57	168.6	36
20	+3	Virginia Tech	0.860	0.525	57	18.6	37	10.6	10	158.1	118
21	-6	Notre Dame	0.857	0.565	2	18.8	35	11.9	22	165.0	85
22	+2	Texas	0.847	0.523	60	19.9	26	10.1	8	168.3	41
23	-5	Ohio St.	0.838	0.531	48	18.6	38	12.0	25	159.1	116
24	NA	Houston	0.826	0.471	85	22.9	12	13.7	39	175.2	4
25	--	Nebraska	0.812	0.532	44	19.3	30	12.5	32	166.8	59

Rankings through games of 2011-11-27

New entries: Southern Miss., Houston.

Dropped out: Clemson, Miami-FL.

I arrived at work this morning to a Hallmark card reading, "With sympathies for your loss." I guess it's only fitting that RBA has now elevated (1b) LSU to the top spot in a tie with (1a) Alabama after dismantling my (10) Razorbacks. All indications suggest little argument with the LSU-Alabama rematch. They possess the top two defenses in the country and top five offenses. Tragically, Alabama can win the title outright, despite only breaking even in the season series, but hey, that's how it works. Beyond the top two, there's remarkable similarity with the BCS poll. RBA swaps Wisconsin and South Carolina in place of Virginia Tech and Houston, but the top 10 is remarkably similar.

After shellacking Tulsa, (24) Houston finally makes an appearance in the poll. With a C-USA title game against (19) Southern Miss, they might crack the top 20 before the season's end. I continue to stand by RBA's claim that Houston has no business in the national title game. I try to steer clear of the "eye test," but if Arkansas can't pass against LSU or Alabama, how do you think Houston will do?

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Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: LA Tech (0.066); Connecticut (0.054); Vanderbilt (0.054); Minnesota (0.053); USC (0.039)

Biggest drops: UCLA (-0.067); Virginia (-0.059); Illinois (-0.059); Wake Forest (-0.055); Penn State (-0.050)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG

The last full week of the regular season is in the books, so the standings are going to be pretty stable at this point. I'm still recovering from a turkey-and-family-induced coma, as well as the horror of being exposed to a Notre Dame game in person this weekend, so the write-up this week will be short.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.962	0.616	14	33.4	2	9.1	1	152.3	120
2	--	LSU	0.941	0.649	5	33.3	3	11.0	2	154.9	118
3	+3	Wisconsin	0.890	0.514	64	34.6	1	15.0	23	157.5	111
4	-1	Boise St.	0.888	0.465	71	31.0	4	13.5	8	164.8	69
5	--	Oklahoma	0.875	0.571	41	26.6	13	12.2	4	179.5	6
6	+1	Stanford	0.874	0.556	50	30.9	5	14.3	13	162.7	89
7	-3	Oregon	0.871	0.608	19	26.9	10	12.5	5	185.0	1
8	--	TCU	0.840	0.431	77	28.7	8	14.8	18	162.8	86
9	+5	Virginia Tech	0.815	0.502	66	24.4	21	13.5	7	158.0	109
10	+1	Florida St.	0.806	0.552	52	24.9	19	14.1	11	157.8	110
11	-2	Arkansas	0.805	0.634	7	30.1	6	17.1	36	169.7	38
12	-2	Oklahoma St.	0.800	0.536	55	27.7	9	15.9	27	181.2	4
13	-1	Michigan	0.799	0.569	43	28.8	7	16.6	33	160.5	100
14	+6	USC	0.797	0.587	29	25.7	15	14.9	21	168.3	45
15	-2	Michigan St.	0.793	0.564	47	22.9	27	13.4	6	163.4	81
16	+2	South Carolina	0.782	0.621	12	24.9	17	14.9	20	159.6	103
17	+2	Georgia	0.768	0.560	48	26.0	14	16.1	28	161.8	92
18	-3	Notre Dame	0.768	0.620	13	22.4	31	13.9	9	168.6	44
19	-3	Florida	0.758	0.660	4	22.8	28	14.4	14	160.5	99
20	-3	Ohio St.	0.754	0.565	46	23.2	25	14.8	19	158.6	107
21	--	Texas A&M	0.751	0.602	21	22.7	29	14.6	16	183.5	2
22	+1	Nebraska	0.742	0.594	24	21.6	34	14.1	10	168.8	42
23	NA	Houston	0.721	0.335	111	26.7	12	18.2	53	180.0	5
24	--	Texas	0.721	0.566	44	21.5	35	14.7	17	162.0	91
25	--	Missouri	0.709	0.572	40	20.8	46	14.6	15	170.3	33

Rankings through games of 2011-11-27

New entries: Houston.

Dropped out: Penn State.

Alabama and LSU did nothing to damage everyone's impression of them as the two best teams in college football right now. The current collection of also-rans include a team that might be able to pull of an upset (Stanford), one with about as much of a chance as Arkansas had (Virginia Tech), and one complete long shot (Oklahoma State). Other quality teams are out of the picture thanks to freak upsets (Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Boise State) or a combination of a freak upset and an existing loss to a top SEC team (Oregon).

The Houston Cougars make their first appearance in our top 25 all season, but my original assessment of them stands. To their credit they've managed to prove they're more 2006 Boise State than 2007 Hawaii, but this year's LSU and Alabama teams are light-years better than the 2006 Oklahoma and 2007 Georgia teams that faced those intruders.

The bottom line is that this may be one year where TFG and the BCS agree on which are the two best teams in college football. However, I urge that everyone remain calm. This is only happening because these teams are so dominant that to say otherwise would be foolish.

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