Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2011-10-30




Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 1 0.548 15 26.3 4 4.9 1 157.2 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  97 Kent St. 7 at   2 Alabama 48 98.2% 172
2011/09/10   3 Alabama 27 at  37 Penn State 11 89.4% 164
2011/09/17 108 North Texas 0 at   2 Alabama 41 98.1% 153
2011/09/24  19 Arkansas 14 at   2 Alabama 38 74.7% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at  10 Florida 10 70.5% 146
2011/10/08  58 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 94.6% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  69 Mississippi 7 97.8% 141
2011/10/22  35 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 93.0% 138
2011/11/05   3 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 73.0% 158
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 31 at  30 Mississippi St. 13 94.7% 159
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 34 at  31 Auburn 17 95.9% 158


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 73.0%
Notes: The week of Alabama-LSU has arrived to settle the Crimson Tide-Tiger debate for us all. RBA is very confident in Alabama's chances, rating the Crimson Tide as a 3:1 favorite. Supposing that Alabama beats LSU without major injuries, they should stroll into the SEC Championship game.


Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.957 8 0.462 93 26.2 6 9.7 7 168.9 33

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  24 Georgia 21 vs   3 Boise St. 35 66.8% 159
2011/09/16   4 Boise St. 40 at  70 Toledo 15 96.4% 181
2011/09/24  56 Tulsa 21 at   5 Boise St. 41 89.8% 162
2011/10/01  58 Nevada 10 at   6 Boise St. 30 91.0% 159
2011/10/07   7 Boise St. 57 at  75 Fresno St. 7 91.9% 161
2011/10/15   7 Boise St. 63 at 106 Colorado St. 13 98.1% 162
2011/10/22  58 Air Force 26 at   7 Boise St. 37 90.0% 158
2011/11/05   8 Boise St. 52 at 120 UNLV 14 98.8% 167
2011/11/12  14 TCU 21 at   8 Boise St. 34 72.5% 168
2011/11/19   8 Boise St. 34 at  56 SDSU 21 90.5% 168
2011/11/26  96 Wyoming 7 at   8 Boise St. 52 97.5% 168
2011/12/03 118 New Mexico 3 at   8 Boise St. 69 99.5% 167


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 72.5%
Notes: Boise State has five games remaining on its schedule, so the odds of finishing undefeated are lower than Alabama. TCU is the only remaining speed bump on the schedule.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 2 0.543 26 29.2 1 10.3 10 167.2 50

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 107 SJSU 3 at   1 Stanford 57 98.2% 162
2011/09/10   1 Stanford 44 at  82 Duke 14 93.3% 155
2011/09/17   1 Stanford 37 at  37 Arizona 10 79.2% 155
2011/10/01  75 UCLA 19 at   3 Stanford 45 94.7% 152
2011/10/08  67 Colorado 7 at   4 Stanford 48 94.9% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  66 Washington St. 14 90.8% 157
2011/10/22  33 Washington 21 at   2 Stanford 65 88.3% 159
2011/10/29   2 Stanford 56 at  22 USC 48 83.9% 191
2011/11/05   2 Stanford 41 at  61 Oregon St. 20 92.8% 169
2011/11/12   4 Oregon 31 at   2 Stanford 41 52.5% 171
2011/11/19  57 California 17 at   2 Stanford 41 90.8% 167
2011/11/26  23 Notre Dame 20 at   2 Stanford 41 83.1% 166


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.7
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 52.5%
Notes: Stanford is really good, but we have to wait two weeks for them to face the Oregon Ducks to know exactly how good. Even after beating Southern Cal, RBA still gives the Cardinal a coin toss against the Ducks.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.957 6 0.549 14 26.9 3 13.9 40 172.9 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 113 LA-Lafayette 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 61 94.4% 196
2011/09/08  32 Arizona 14 at  10 Oklahoma St. 37 53.2% 185
2011/09/18   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  59 Tulsa 33 70.7% 202
2011/09/24  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 52.7% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 70 89.9% 186
2011/10/15   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  35 Texas 26 52.3% 184
2011/10/22   8 Oklahoma St. 45 at  28 Missouri 24 63.8% 187
2011/10/29  46 Baylor 24 at   6 Oklahoma St. 59 68.5% 190
2011/11/05  36 Kansas St. 21 at   6 Oklahoma St. 42 61.1% 169
2011/11/12   6 Oklahoma St. 38 at  42 Texas Tech 28 69.3% 176
2011/11/18   6 Oklahoma St. 42 at  79 Iowa St. 24 88.2% 171
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 28 at   6 Oklahoma St. 29 66.4% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.0
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs Kansas State Wildcats, 61.1%
Notes: Oklahoma excluded, K-State has played pretty good defense this year, so the Cowboys should be on alert this weekend. The Sooners loom large in the final week of the regular season.


Long Shots

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 3 0.551 12 23.8 9 6.5 2 160.6 112

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   9 Oregon 27 vs   8 LSU 40 56.5% 184
2011/09/15   8 LSU 19 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 64.1% 150
2011/09/24   7 LSU 47 at  26 West Virginia 21 35.3% 188
2011/10/01  57 Kentucky 7 at   4 LSU 35 84.7% 162
2011/10/08  13 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 54.8% 141
2011/10/15   2 LSU 38 at  29 Tennessee 7 82.7% 143
2011/10/22  31 Auburn 10 at   3 LSU 45 87.0% 144
2011/11/05   3 LSU 24 at   1 Alabama 28 27.0% 158
2011/11/12  94 Western Kentucky 3 at   3 LSU 48 97.9% 160
2011/11/19   3 LSU 41 at  72 Mississippi 14 95.1% 161
2011/11/25  19 Arkansas 20 at   3 LSU 38 80.9% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.9
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 27.0%
Notes: If LSU wins this weekend, expect this to change dramatically. LSU still has to play downward-trending Arkansas on Thanksgiving weekend, but the real impediment is the Crimson Tide.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.614 48 0.475 83 21.1 19 17.5 74 175.1 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  66 UCLA 34 at  67 Houston 38 50.7% 170
2011/09/10  63 Houston 48 at 111 North Texas 23 68.4% 186
2011/09/17  67 Houston 35 at  79 LA Tech 34 64.5% 205
2011/09/29  64 Houston 49 at  95 UTEP 42 75.5% 178
2011/10/08  93 East Carolina 3 at  57 Houston 56 56.0% 182
2011/10/22  99 Marshall 28 at  46 Houston 63 70.9% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  48 Houston 73 81.7% 179
2011/11/05  48 Houston 42 at 119 UAB 24 84.0% 169
2011/11/10  48 Houston 48 at 115 Tulane 24 89.1% 171
2011/11/19  63 SMU 27 at  48 Houston 34 55.9% 170
2011/11/25  48 Houston 34 at  54 Tulsa 35 41.8% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.7
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 41.8%
Notes: Houston's odds are respectable only due to the competition level. They aren't even favored to beat Tulsa in four weeks.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron.
Posted by at
Labels: , , , , , ,