Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2011-10-30




Legitimate Title Contenders

Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.922 3 0.475 72 31.4 5 11.7 4 163.2 85

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  23 Georgia 21 vs   2 Boise St. 35 84.9% 159
2011/09/16   2 Boise St. 40 at  65 Toledo 15 89.8% 181
2011/09/24  52 Tulsa 21 at   2 Boise St. 41 93.1% 162
2011/10/01  45 Nevada 10 at   2 Boise St. 30 91.2% 159
2011/10/07   2 Boise St. 57 at  72 Fresno St. 7 90.9% 161
2011/10/15   2 Boise St. 63 at 109 Colorado St. 13 98.2% 162
2011/10/22  62 Air Force 26 at   3 Boise St. 37 95.9% 158
2011/11/05   3 Boise St. 49 at 113 UNLV 21 98.6% 163
2011/11/12   9 TCU 31 at   3 Boise St. 38 74.1% 163
2011/11/19   3 Boise St. 41 at  65 SDSU 24 93.4% 167
2011/11/26 102 Wyoming 21 at   3 Boise St. 46 97.7% 166
2011/12/03 120 New Mexico 16 at   3 Boise St. 50 99.6% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 74.1%
Notes: It's going to come down to whether or not TCU can stop Boise. Period. Anything other than that -- with the exception of San Diego State -- would be the biggest upset in the last several years by a large margin.


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.969 1 0.562 39 35.4 1 8.9 1 152.9 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6% 172
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5% 164
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1% 153
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5% 146
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 98.5% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  72 Mississippi 7 96.9% 141
2011/10/22  42 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 96.9% 138
2011/11/05   2 LSU 32 at   1 Alabama 36 72.6% 154
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 39 at  39 Mississippi St. 21 94.2% 160
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  29 Auburn 27 93.0% 159


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 5, vs LSU Tigers, 72.6%
Notes: LSU may be #1 in the BCS polls, but TFG says the Crimson Tide are nearly 3-to-1 favorites to win this weekend. No team this year has scored more than two touchdowns on Alabama, and even then it took Arkansas' high-power offense to make that happen.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.897 4 0.513 63 31.4 4 13.2 8 163.3 84

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8% 162
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4% 155
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6% 155
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3% 152
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  82 Washington St. 14 93.1% 157
2011/10/22  44 Washington 21 at   4 Stanford 65 91.4% 159
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 56 at  24 USC 48 69.6% 191
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 40 at  61 Oregon St. 26 88.6% 165
2011/11/12   6 Oregon 34 at   4 Stanford 38 58.9% 174
2011/11/19  59 California 25 at   4 Stanford 40 90.0% 165
2011/11/26  14 Notre Dame 30 at   4 Stanford 37 70.1% 166


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.0
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 58.9%
Notes: The Cardinal escaped a close one against USC this past week, but it hurt their forecast against Oregon. They've got a warmup against Oregon State this weekend, and then a slightly-better-than-coin-toss against the visiting Ducks in two weeks. Win that, and their outlook improves considerably.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.613 40 0.350 102 26.2 12 21.8 77 178.9 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5% 170
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3% 186
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2% 205
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1% 178
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1% 182
2011/10/22  94 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 63 84.8% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  46 Houston 73 87.2% 179
2011/11/05  40 Houston 46 at 112 UAB 31 89.2% 172
2011/11/10  40 Houston 48 at 114 Tulane 31 90.4% 170
2011/11/19  60 SMU 34 at  40 Houston 38 62.4% 170
2011/11/25  40 Houston 39 at  41 Tulsa 38 50.1% 178


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.0
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 50.1%
Notes: When you're not even 50% to beat SMU and Tulsa on consecutive weeks, you don't have a strong case for a title shot, no matter what your record is.


Long Shots

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.933 2 0.663 4 33.3 2 11.6 2 156.6 114

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4% 184
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4% 150
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4% 188
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0% 162
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6% 141
2011/10/15   3 LSU 38 at  32 Tennessee 7 81.4% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 10 at   2 LSU 45 88.6% 144
2011/11/05   2 LSU 32 at   1 Alabama 36 27.4% 154
2011/11/12  98 Western Kentucky 21 at   2 LSU 46 98.0% 159
2011/11/19   2 LSU 44 at  78 Mississippi 24 95.5% 158
2011/11/25  22 Arkansas 31 at   2 LSU 41 82.9% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.7
Most difficult game left: November 5, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 27.4%
Notes: The first of our two long shots is currently atop the BCS poll. The TFG ratings are less positive on LSU, though, but think they've got a slim shot at pulling it off. A win against Alabama means the Tigers have a downhill road to the SEC title game and probably the national championship.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.815 10 0.557 41 27.6 7 15.3 24 181.4 3

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7% 196
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2% 185
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1% 202
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8% 186
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 Texas 26 51.6% 184
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 Missouri 24 42.6% 187
2011/10/29  50 Baylor 24 at  12 Oklahoma St. 59 83.3% 190
2011/11/05  36 Kansas St. 34 at  10 Oklahoma St. 41 75.4% 170
2011/11/12  10 Oklahoma St. 42 at  54 Texas Tech 33 76.2% 183
2011/11/18  10 Oklahoma St. 41 at  76 Iowa St. 28 86.7% 178
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  10 Oklahoma St. 35 34.1% 180


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.9
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 34.1%
Notes: TFG is slowly becoming more positive against the Cowboys, but is still wary about their offense (their frantic pace conceals the fact that their offense is merely great but not exceptional) and downright skeptical about their defense (great defenses don't let Baylor score 24 points). TFG gives the Cowboys 55-45 odds to get past both Kansas State and Texas Tech, and about a 1-in-3 shot to beat the still-dangerous Sooners. The only upside is that the Cowboys wouldn't have a potential conference title game, unlike Alabama/LSU or Stanford.


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