Game of the Week
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal
GUGS Score: 84.2
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Stanford | 0.896 | 0.502 | 68 | 31.2 | 4 | 13.2 | 8 | 163.0 | 88 |
| 6 | Oregon | 0.874 | 0.577 | 33 | 26.4 | 11 | 12.2 | 5 | 184.2 | 1 |
Last year we dismissed this game as not being worthy of our blog space. One year makes a big difference, though, as this shapes up to be one of the most interesting games of the year. The real news of this matchup is that the true power on offense is Stanford. At 31.2 PPH, the Cardinal have nearly a 5 PPH advantage on offense thanks to Andrew Luck and the big O-line. Oregon has a good offense, but makes up for their good-but-not-elite efficiency by being the fastest team in FBS. After 163 plays, an average Stanford game is in the books; after 163 plays the average Oregon game has about 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Last year Oregon was able to wear down the Cardinal defense, and there might be something to that. However TFG says that Stanford's edge on offense plus the home field advantage is enough to tip things their way. Stanford 38, Oregon 33 (59.7%); 173 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stanford | 0.992 | 0.542 | 27 | 28.8 | 2 | 10.1 | 8 | 167.1 | 52 |
| 4 | Oregon | 0.974 | 0.530 | 45 | 26.0 | 4 | 9.2 | 4 | 176.1 | 3 |
I've made jokes in the past about how little Stanford graduates care about their football team, but I may have underestimated them. I mean, I actually had somebody other than Justin ask me about this game today at work. Another person even suggested visiting the Gameday set in Palo Alto. You probably wouldn't have thought it, but (2) Stanford actually has the better offense at 33.6 +/- 9.6 PPH. (4) Oregon is very efficient at 32.4 +/- 12.7 PPH, but it's their pace that makes them look so flashy on the scoreboard. The Ducks hold a slight 1.1 PPH defensive edge, but that's covered by Stanford's home field advantage. This one should be spectacular. The Cardinal are favored 38-31 but at only 51.2% confidence. You might as well flip a coin.
Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs
GUGS Score: 48.4
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Mississippi St. | 0.759 | 0.560 | 5 | 15.9 | 61 | 10.8 | 12 | 162.6 | 102 |
| 1 | Alabama | 1.000 | 0.550 | 12 | 25.8 | 6 | 4.8 | 1 | 157.1 | 120 |
This game isn't going to be interesting at all. (1) Alabama's defense is going to absolutely suffocate the (29) Mississippi State offense still in search of a respectable option at quarterback. The Crimson Tide defense should hold the Bulldogs to only 6.5 PPH and ring up 22.0 PPH on their defense. The Crimson Tide are both the unstoppable force and the immovable object. You probably want to find a different game in this time slot. Alabama should roll 31-13 with 95.3% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | Mississippi St. | 0.627 | 0.567 | 41 | 18.0 | 72 | 14.6 | 14 | 167.6 | 49 |
| 1 | Alabama | 0.967 | 0.615 | 15 | 33.4 | 1 | 8.7 | 1 | 152.9 | 120 |
Anyone who thinks that Mississippi State has a chance, step forward. Not so fast, Starkville residents. Even after last week's horrendous performance against LSU, Alabama still has the top-rated offense and defense in college football. In order to pull off this victory, the Bulldogs would need to notch a highly improbable upset. Alabama is too talented and too focused to let this one slide. Alabama 37, Mississippi St. 21 (93.7%); 160 plays.
Shootout of the Week
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders
GUGS Score: 43.1
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Texas Tech | 0.500 | 0.551 | 48 | 20.4 | 48 | 20.4 | 68 | 183.8 | 2 |
| 11 | Oklahoma St. | 0.800 | 0.564 | 43 | 27.5 | 7 | 15.8 | 28 | 181.7 | 3 |
The Cowboys have been involved in some shootouts this year, but this one has the potential to top them all. Put the second and third fastest teams into the same game, give them mediocre defenses, and stand back. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, the Cowboys have the superior offense and defense, so an up-tempo game will only highlight the difference in quality between these two teams. Texas Tech was already to pull off one improbably upset against an Oklahoma powerhouse, but the odds are against them running the table here. Oklahoma St. 43, Texas Tech 33 (77.1%); 182 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | Texas Tech | 0.545 | 0.531 | 44 | 18.6 | 40 | 18.0 | 78 | 179.6 | 1 |
| 7 | Oklahoma St. | 0.957 | 0.549 | 16 | 27.4 | 3 | 14.7 | 50 | 172.9 | 8 |
Unlike the Alabama-Mississippi State game, this one has the potential to be wild. (7) Oklahoma State can barely play a lick of defense, ranking 50th nationwide. (56) Texas Tech is even worse, ranking 78th. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, the Cowboys are explosive on offense with a 37.9 +/- 21.0 PPH efficiency. The Red Raiders are considerably a less efficient 24.9 +/- 12.5 PPH. The Cowboys are strong 42-28 favorites at 78.4% confidence, but Texas Tech's high variance strategy of slinging the ball all over the place can keep them the game.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes
GUGS Score: 63.3
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Iowa | 0.838 | 0.522 | 60 | 18.3 | 43 | 13.4 | 38 | 163.8 | 93 |
| 22 | Michigan St. | 0.850 | 0.543 | 25 | 18.5 | 42 | 11.7 | 18 | 167.1 | 54 |
(22) Michigan State never gets the love from RBA. On the other hand, (23) Iowa has been perennially overrated. Then again, that usually works out in my favor. The Hawkeyes have an unusually consistent defense at 15.0 -/+ 3.3 PPH (note the sign flip). The Spartans aren't bad either at 5.0 +/- 13.5 PPH, but they get too much credit for beating up on a hapless Ohio State team with suspensions and a first-time starting quarterback Braxton Miller. It's going to be a typical Big Ten game with ugly offenses and stout defenses. RBA is quite confident in this game, predicting an Iowa 24-21 victory with 69.5% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | Iowa | 0.649 | 0.502 | 67 | 22.1 | 36 | 17.3 | 37 | 162.7 | 91 |
| 22 | Michigan St. | 0.746 | 0.590 | 27 | 21.8 | 40 | 14.2 | 10 | 162.3 | 95 |
The Big Ten seems to show up here a lot. The Spartans have managed to stay in the top 25 thanks to some impressive defense -- they really laid out the plan to stop Wisconsin -- even if their offense can be a bit suspect. Really this game wouldn't be that close if it were played on a neutral field, but since it's a home game for the Hawkeyes that gives them a slight boost. TFG says they can make it close, but ultimately they won't have enough defense to slow down Michigan State (this is a departure from previous years). Michigan St. 31, Iowa 29 (57.3%); 162 plays.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 35.01 - 14.99 | 70.01% |
| TFG | 34.80 - 15.20 | 69.60% |
