| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.967 | 0.615 | 15 | 33.4 | 1 | 8.7 | 1 | 152.9 | 120 |
| 2 | -- | LSU | 0.937 | 0.711 | 1 | 32.3 | 3 | 10.9 | 2 | 156.6 | 115 |
| 3 | -- | Boise St. | 0.905 | 0.437 | 80 | 30.5 | 5 | 12.4 | 6 | 163.5 | 83 |
| 4 | -- | Stanford | 0.896 | 0.502 | 68 | 31.2 | 4 | 13.2 | 8 | 163.0 | 88 |
| 5 | -- | Oklahoma | 0.891 | 0.597 | 23 | 27.1 | 9 | 11.7 | 3 | 180.5 | 5 |
| 6 | -- | Oregon | 0.874 | 0.577 | 33 | 26.4 | 11 | 12.2 | 5 | 184.2 | 1 |
| 7 | -- | Wisconsin | 0.874 | 0.527 | 57 | 32.7 | 2 | 15.1 | 22 | 160.4 | 103 |
| 8 | -- | Ohio St. | 0.825 | 0.553 | 47 | 23.2 | 33 | 12.5 | 7 | 158.9 | 109 |
| 9 | -- | TCU | 0.819 | 0.377 | 98 | 27.2 | 8 | 14.9 | 17 | 163.0 | 89 |
| 10 | +1 | Florida St. | 0.818 | 0.542 | 50 | 26.2 | 13 | 14.4 | 12 | 158.4 | 111 |
| 11 | -1 | Oklahoma St. | 0.800 | 0.564 | 43 | 27.5 | 7 | 15.8 | 28 | 181.7 | 3 |
| 12 | +3 | Virginia Tech | 0.786 | 0.504 | 65 | 22.9 | 34 | 13.6 | 9 | 159.1 | 107 |
| 13 | -- | Florida | 0.779 | 0.637 | 10 | 24.4 | 23 | 14.7 | 16 | 160.7 | 102 |
| 14 | -- | Notre Dame | 0.771 | 0.607 | 20 | 23.3 | 32 | 14.4 | 11 | 166.8 | 61 |
| 15 | +8 | Texas | 0.771 | 0.537 | 52 | 24.3 | 24 | 14.9 | 18 | 161.2 | 98 |
| 16 | -4 | Nebraska | 0.765 | 0.562 | 45 | 23.4 | 30 | 14.6 | 15 | 165.7 | 63 |
| 17 | -- | South Carolina | 0.759 | 0.611 | 18 | 24.6 | 21 | 15.5 | 23 | 160.0 | 104 |
| 18 | +4 | Arkansas | 0.759 | 0.598 | 22 | 28.4 | 6 | 18.0 | 47 | 169.5 | 36 |
| 19 | -- | USC | 0.757 | 0.587 | 28 | 24.9 | 19 | 15.8 | 26 | 169.5 | 37 |
| 20 | -2 | Michigan | 0.750 | 0.517 | 60 | 25.6 | 15 | 16.5 | 31 | 160.8 | 101 |
| 21 | -1 | Texas A&M | 0.749 | 0.630 | 11 | 22.7 | 35 | 14.6 | 13 | 181.5 | 4 |
| 22 | -6 | Michigan St. | 0.746 | 0.590 | 27 | 21.8 | 40 | 14.2 | 10 | 162.3 | 95 |
| 23 | NA | Georgia | 0.738 | 0.583 | 32 | 26.2 | 12 | 17.3 | 38 | 163.6 | 81 |
| 24 | -- | Clemson | 0.731 | 0.584 | 30 | 24.0 | 25 | 16.1 | 29 | 170.5 | 27 |
| 25 | NA | Miami-FL | 0.723 | 0.612 | 16 | 24.9 | 20 | 17.0 | 34 | 158.9 | 108 |
Rankings through games of 2011-11-06
New entries: Georgia, Miami-FL.
Dropped out: Arizona St., Missouri.
Yet another "Game of the Century" in the books, and .... nothing changes in the top nine? Well, yes and no. If you look back at last week's top 25 you'll see some changes in the expected winning percentages. Alabama and LSU effectively fought to a standstill (a very slow standstill, but an even one), and LSU's three-point victory on the road results in a slight net shift in LSU's favor. Practically speaking that means Alabama went from a 69.2% favorite on a neutral field to a 66.3% favorite on a neutral field. Looking beyond the 9-6 final score -- and I think most everyone agrees it would be a good idea if we pretended that one of these top teams was able to score a touchdown -- the Crimson Tide racked up more yards and had several good shots at a win. Going into Saturday's game, the FBS average for field goals from 40-49 yards was 58.7%, and 42.4% from 50+ yards. Thus Alabama's atrocious 1-for-5 performance from 40+ yards was an anomaly; statistically speaking they should have gotten about 8.8 points (i.e., somewhere between 2-5 and 3-5 from that distance), but instead they got only 3. As mentioned in the preview, this isn't too different than the 2009 game between underdog Alabama and favorite Florida, and that Alabama team went on to the national title.
Below that Boise remains the third-best team in FBS, but dropped a few points thanks to giving up 21 against a horrible UNLV team. Stanford and Oklahoma remain effectively tied for fourth while Oregon and Wisconsin are actually tied for sixth. From there it's a reasonable drop-off to Ohio State and ninth-place TCU. The Seminoles enter the top 10, as Oklahoma State continues their version of "the first team to 50 wins." As I noted two weeks ago with regards to Clemson, that's not the safest path to an undefeated season.
From there we have our usual traffic jam from (12) Virginia Tech down to (25) Miami-Florida. The gap covering those 14 teams is 0.063 in expected winning percent, just slightly larger than the 0.062 that separates (1) Alabama from (3) Boise State. SEC fans who argue that the (2) Tigers would destroy Boise are right that LSU would be the favorites, but only by 61.0%; this, of course, doesn't take into account the fact that the title game is at the Superdome, which would likely give LSU a home field advantage boost.
Tomorrow we'll take an updated look at the five remaining undefeated teams and their respective paths to a perfect season.
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