Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Week 11: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2011-11-06




Legitimate Title Contenders

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 3 0.551 11 25.0 8 7.2 2 160.5 112

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   9 Oregon 27 vs   8 LSU 40 56.5% 184
2011/09/15   8 LSU 19 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 64.1% 150
2011/09/24   7 LSU 47 at  26 West Virginia 21 35.3% 188
2011/10/01  57 Kentucky 7 at   4 LSU 35 84.7% 162
2011/10/08  13 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 54.8% 141
2011/10/15   2 LSU 38 at  29 Tennessee 7 82.7% 143
2011/10/22  31 Auburn 10 at   3 LSU 45 87.0% 144
2011/11/05   3 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 27.0% 143
2011/11/12  95 Western Kentucky 6 at   3 LSU 48 98.4% 160
2011/11/19   3 LSU 42 at  79 Mississippi 14 96.4% 161
2011/11/25  15 Arkansas 20 at   3 LSU 35 84.8% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: November 25, vs Arkansas Razorbacks, 84.8%
Notes: With Alabama out of the way, it's smooth sailing for LSU. The only remaining challenge is Arkansas. The Tigers get the Razorbacks at home, where they will be nearly 8-to-1 favorites.


Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.966 6 0.461 94 25.9 5 10.2 10 168.9 32

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  24 Georgia 21 vs   3 Boise St. 35 66.8% 159
2011/09/16   4 Boise St. 40 at  70 Toledo 15 96.4% 181
2011/09/24  56 Tulsa 21 at   5 Boise St. 41 89.8% 162
2011/10/01  58 Nevada 10 at   6 Boise St. 30 91.0% 159
2011/10/07   7 Boise St. 57 at  75 Fresno St. 7 91.9% 161
2011/10/15   7 Boise St. 63 at 106 Colorado St. 13 98.1% 162
2011/10/22  58 Air Force 26 at   7 Boise St. 37 90.0% 158
2011/11/05   6 Boise St. 48 at 120 UNLV 21 98.8% 158
2011/11/12  17 TCU 21 at   6 Boise St. 34 70.4% 168
2011/11/19   6 Boise St. 35 at  57 SDSU 21 90.2% 168
2011/11/26  94 Wyoming 13 at   6 Boise St. 48 96.2% 167
2011/12/03 118 New Mexico 6 at   6 Boise St. 66 99.6% 167


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 70.4%
Notes: This week is the last real game of the season for the Broncos. TCU is more than a 2-to-1 underdog, and they must travel to Boise. If Boise State survives, they should roll into a BCS game, even if its not *the* BCS game.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.957 7 0.549 16 27.4 3 14.7 50 172.9 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 113 LA-Lafayette 34 at  12 Oklahoma St. 61 94.4% 196
2011/09/08  32 Arizona 14 at  10 Oklahoma St. 37 53.2% 185
2011/09/18   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  59 Tulsa 33 70.7% 202
2011/09/24  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 52.7% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at   9 Oklahoma St. 70 89.9% 186
2011/10/15   9 Oklahoma St. 38 at  35 Texas 26 52.3% 184
2011/10/22   8 Oklahoma St. 45 at  28 Missouri 24 63.8% 187
2011/10/29  45 Baylor 24 at   6 Oklahoma St. 59 68.5% 190
2011/11/05  33 Kansas St. 45 at   7 Oklahoma St. 52 61.1% 181
2011/11/12   7 Oklahoma St. 42 at  56 Texas Tech 28 78.4% 176
2011/11/18   7 Oklahoma St. 41 at  68 Iowa St. 27 83.3% 171
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 28 at   7 Oklahoma St. 31 67.3% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.3
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 67.3%
Notes: As expected in this space last week, Kansas State was a tough matchup for the Cowboys. Unlike Boise State and LSU, Oklahoma State can't take a week off for the rest of season, as any of their three remaining opponents could actually beat them, especially Oklahoma.


Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.992 2 0.542 27 28.8 2 10.1 8 167.1 52

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 107 SJSU 3 at   1 Stanford 57 98.2% 162
2011/09/10   1 Stanford 44 at  82 Duke 14 93.3% 155
2011/09/17   1 Stanford 37 at  37 Arizona 10 79.2% 155
2011/10/01  75 UCLA 19 at   3 Stanford 45 94.7% 152
2011/10/08  67 Colorado 7 at   4 Stanford 48 94.9% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  66 Washington St. 14 90.8% 157
2011/10/22  33 Washington 21 at   2 Stanford 65 88.3% 159
2011/10/29   2 Stanford 56 at  22 USC 48 83.9% 191
2011/11/05   2 Stanford 38 at  60 Oregon St. 13 92.8% 149
2011/11/12   4 Oregon 31 at   2 Stanford 38 51.2% 171
2011/11/19  58 California 17 at   2 Stanford 42 92.1% 167
2011/11/26  16 Notre Dame 21 at   2 Stanford 41 73.4% 165


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.9
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 51.2%
Notes: Stanford struggled for three quarters against Oregon State in Corvallis, and Oregon rolled, bringing us to a coin flip in Palo Alto this weekend. The Cardinal had better not sleepwalk through the first half like they did against the Beavers because Oregon will beat the hell out of them.


Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.619 48 0.475 82 21.1 19 17.7 76 175.1 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  66 UCLA 34 at  67 Houston 38 50.7% 170
2011/09/10  63 Houston 48 at 111 North Texas 23 68.4% 186
2011/09/17  67 Houston 35 at  79 LA Tech 34 64.5% 205
2011/09/29  64 Houston 49 at  95 UTEP 42 75.5% 178
2011/10/08  93 East Carolina 3 at  57 Houston 56 56.0% 182
2011/10/22  99 Marshall 28 at  46 Houston 63 70.9% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  48 Houston 73 81.7% 179
2011/11/05  48 Houston 56 at 119 UAB 13 84.0% 176
2011/11/10  48 Houston 49 at 115 Tulane 21 90.1% 171
2011/11/19  65 SMU 27 at  48 Houston 38 62.8% 170
2011/11/25  48 Houston 31 at  50 Tulsa 34 48.0% 172


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.7
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 48.0%
Notes: New week, same story. If you aren't favored against Tulsa, you're not a contender. End of story.


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