Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Week 11: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2011-11-06


Legitimate Title Contenders

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.937 2 0.711 1 32.3 3 10.9 2 156.6 115

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4% 184
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4% 150
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4% 188
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0% 162
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6% 141
2011/10/15   3 LSU 38 at  32 Tennessee 7 81.4% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 10 at   2 LSU 45 88.6% 144
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 27.4% 143
2011/11/12  98 Western Kentucky 20 at   2 LSU 44 98.0% 158
2011/11/19   2 LSU 44 at  82 Mississippi 23 96.4% 159
2011/11/25  18 Arkansas 32 at   2 LSU 40 82.6% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 25, vs Arkansas Razorbacks, 82.6%
Notes: With the win over Alabama, the Tigers jump to the top of the heap here. Keep in mind that this doesn't include an SEC title game, but even with a matchup against South Carolina or Georgia on the radar, the Tigers are still more likely to finish undefeated than our next team ....


Boise State Broncos
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.905 3 0.437 80 30.5 5 12.4 6 163.5 83

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  23 Georgia 21 vs   2 Boise St. 35 84.9% 159
2011/09/16   2 Boise St. 40 at  65 Toledo 15 89.8% 181
2011/09/24  52 Tulsa 21 at   2 Boise St. 41 93.1% 162
2011/10/01  45 Nevada 10 at   2 Boise St. 30 91.2% 159
2011/10/07   2 Boise St. 57 at  72 Fresno St. 7 90.9% 161
2011/10/15   2 Boise St. 63 at 109 Colorado St. 13 98.2% 162
2011/10/22  62 Air Force 26 at   3 Boise St. 37 95.9% 158
2011/11/05   3 Boise St. 48 at 113 UNLV 21 98.6% 158
2011/11/12   9 TCU 31 at   3 Boise St. 37 71.5% 163
2011/11/19   3 Boise St. 40 at  64 SDSU 25 91.4% 167
2011/11/26  99 Wyoming 22 at   3 Boise St. 44 96.5% 166
2011/12/03 120 New Mexico 16 at   3 Boise St. 49 99.6% 163


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs TCU Horned Frogs, 71.5%
Notes: ... perennial rorschach ink blot test Boise. A win against visiting TCU this weekend would push Boise to the top of the most-likely-to-run-the-table line, at about 1-in-1.14 favorites.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.896 4 0.502 68 31.2 4 13.2 8 163.0 88

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8% 162
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4% 155
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6% 155
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3% 152
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  82 Washington St. 14 93.1% 157
2011/10/22  44 Washington 21 at   4 Stanford 65 91.4% 159
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 56 at  24 USC 48 69.6% 191
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 38 at  61 Oregon St. 13 88.6% 149
2011/11/12   6 Oregon 33 at   4 Stanford 38 59.7% 173
2011/11/19  58 California 25 at   4 Stanford 39 88.7% 165
2011/11/26  14 Notre Dame 30 at   4 Stanford 37 71.9% 164


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.6
Most difficult game left: November 12, vs Oregon Ducks, 59.7%
Notes: The Cardinal are lucky this weekend's game against Oregon is in Palo Alto, or they could have found themselves as underdogs. Neither Pac-12 team has done themselves any favors lately, though, as Stanford struggled against USC and needed some questionable calls before they could start to pull away from Oregon State. The jury is out on the Cardinal until this weekend.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.640 35 0.329 112 26.1 14 20.7 71 178.7 7

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5% 170
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3% 186
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2% 205
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1% 178
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1% 182
2011/10/22  94 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 63 84.8% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  46 Houston 73 87.2% 179
2011/11/05  40 Houston 56 at 112 UAB 13 89.2% 176
2011/11/10  35 Houston 48 at 114 Tulane 30 91.3% 170
2011/11/19  65 SMU 33 at  35 Houston 38 66.5% 170
2011/11/25  35 Houston 38 at  40 Tulsa 36 52.3% 177


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.1
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 52.3%
Notes: We get it. You might go undefeated. Too bad you're 2007 Hawaii and not 2009 Boise State.


Long Shots

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.800 11 0.564 43 27.5 7 15.8 28 181.7 3

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7% 196
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2% 185
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1% 202
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8% 186
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 Texas 26 51.6% 184
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 Missouri 24 42.6% 187
2011/10/29  50 Baylor 24 at  12 Oklahoma St. 59 83.3% 190
2011/11/05  35 Kansas St. 45 at  10 Oklahoma St. 52 75.4% 181
2011/11/12  11 Oklahoma St. 43 at  60 Texas Tech 33 77.1% 182
2011/11/18  11 Oklahoma St. 40 at  77 Iowa St. 27 85.7% 178
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  11 Oklahoma St. 35 32.8% 181


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 32.8%
Notes: As noted about Clemson just before they blew their perfect season, playing "the first to 50 wins" isn't exactly a safe path to the a perfect season. I'm sure there's nothing Texas Tech would enjoy more than ruining the seasons of both major Oklahoma teams, but even if the Cowboys survive that they still need to host a still-dangerous Sooner squad.


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