Week 12: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week / Coin Toss Game of the Week

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines

GUGS Score: 71.7

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
16	Michigan	0.767	0.531	56	26.2	13	16.3	32	160.1	100
17	Nebraska	0.763	0.571	36	22.8	31	14.3	13	167.2	55

This is about as coin-toss-y as you can get, which is appropriate because oddly enough it's the only game this week over which Eddie and I disagree.  Michigan still has a good strength-adjusted offense, but Nebraska has the better defense. The Wolverines get home field advantage, which aids them ever so slightly. Other than that there's not too much to say. If it weren't for a collapse against Northwestern, this could have much more interesting Big 10 championship implications. As it is, it'll be a fun and close game. Michigan 33, Nebraska 31 (50.5%); 163 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
29	Michigan	0.776	0.540	29	21.3	16	12.2	24	167.9	45
19	Nebraska	0.874	0.530	46	19.9	29	12.5	30	166.9	57

It's tough to tell exactly how this game is going to play out. When their offense shows up, (19) Nebraska is really good because their 8.4 +/- 8.3 PPH defense can slow down most teams. The problem is that their offense lets them down. The Huskers scored only 17 against Wisconsin and 17 against Penn State, and those were pretty ugly efforts. This doesn't even include the 25 points against overmatched Northwestern. This inconsistency manifests as a 28.4 +/- 16.9 PPH offensive efficiency. In contrast, the Michigan defense is even more inconsistent than the Nebraska offense at 0.0 +/- 25.4 PPH. Denard Robinson can be explosive, leading a 35.2 +/- 27.9 PPH offense, but he has been contained by better defenses. RBA favors defense, choosing Nebraska, 28-27, with only 53.0% confidence.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini

GUGS Score: 43.7

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
45	Illinois	0.622	0.539	33	15.0	67	13.2	33	169.6	24
6	Wisconsin	0.966	0.534	40	28.7	1	11.6	18	161.8	107

Is Ron Zook the immovable object? I know it's (46) Illinois, but I'm stunned at his ability to remain employed. The Illini have played respectable and consistent defense at 11.8 +/- 2.9 PPH. The (6) Badger defense is less consistent at 4.0 +/- 15.1 PPH, but Illinois really isn't that good of a team. The one thing that's really going to separate these teams is the Badger offense. Wisconsin holds a huge offensive lead at 39.7 +/- 22.0 PPH against the Illini's anemic 24.1 +/- 18.4 PPH. Maybe Zook manages to get his team in gear early, but it looks like they aren't going to keep up with Wisconsin's offense. RBA predicts a 34-20 Badger victory with 85.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
48	Illinois	0.574	0.557	47	17.9	69	15.9	28	166.2	59
6	Wisconsin	0.877	0.502	65	33.5	2	15.3	24	158.1	110

Well we know that the Illinois offense isn't the unstoppable force. LSU's anemic performance last week allowed them to get leapfrogged by the Badgers. And it was a mere five weeks ago that Illinois was still undefeated. This one doesn't bode well for the Illini, though, even though it is a home game. Simply put, this mismatch comes down to offense. Illinois and Wisconsin have similar quality defenses, but the Badgers have a stunning 15.6 PPH advantage on offense. Illinois needs to find roughly a net of 16.0 PPH on both sides of the ball in order to make this work. Usually that doesn't come all from one side, so Illinois is going to need to step it up on both sides of the ball in order to make up that difference. TFG is skeptical that they can do this, though. Wisconsin 40, Illinois 26 (84.1%); 162 plays.

Shootout of the Week

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

GUGS Score: 44.0

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
57	Baylor	0.522	0.598	25	22.8	32	22.0	81	175.8	14
4	Oklahoma	0.889	0.594	28	27.3	12	11.9	4	180.3	4

And we're off to the races. With Oklahoma State's shocking loss, this puts the Sooners right back in the title hunt. First thing's first, though; Oklahoma is going off to the races with Baylor. The Bears are seriously overmatched here, in that they allow roughly double the points the Sooners do, and are still down 4.5 PPH on offense. Like the OSU/TT game last week, the underdog makes things worse for themselves by playing at a breakneck pace, too. This only creates more opportunities for the better team to exert their dominance. TFG says this one won't be close, but then again the Sooners already lost once when they were 10-to-1 favorites. Oklahoma 43, Baylor 30 (88.0%); 178 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
46	Baylor	0.622	0.562	4	20.4	24	18.5	80	172.2	13
4	Oklahoma	0.975	0.545	23	25.3	7	9.5	6	171.4	15

For all the points this game should involve, it's not really going to be that close. The humans put Robert Griffin III and a bunch of people you've never heard of called (45) Baylor in the top 25. Sure, he's spectacular, but the Baylor offense really isn't that efficient at 24.7 +/- 8.5 PPH. It's certainly not efficient enough to overcome their flaky 7.3 +/- 22.4 PPH defense. If you had to pick a team you don't want to play with an efficiency deficit, it's (4) Oklahoma. The Sooners aren't quite as efficient as the scoreboard looks, but they're still well above average at 33.3 +/- 16.0 PPH. Not only that, their defense is better than the Bears. Home field keeps this from being an embarrassment, but Oklahoma should roll 42-27 with 85.0% confidence in a high-paced game.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	35.48 - 12.52	73.91%
TFG	35.33 - 12.67	73.60%