| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.967 | 0.612 | 18 | 33.5 | 1 | 8.7 | 1 | 152.8 | 120 |
| 2 | -- | LSU | 0.930 | 0.660 | 2 | 31.7 | 3 | 11.3 | 2 | 156.5 | 114 |
| 3 | -- | Boise St. | 0.898 | 0.481 | 70 | 30.7 | 5 | 12.9 | 6 | 163.5 | 81 |
| 4 | +1 | Oklahoma | 0.889 | 0.594 | 28 | 27.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 4 | 180.3 | 4 |
| 5 | +1 | Oregon | 0.886 | 0.602 | 22 | 27.8 | 9 | 12.2 | 5 | 183.4 | 2 |
| 6 | +1 | Wisconsin | 0.877 | 0.502 | 65 | 33.5 | 2 | 15.3 | 24 | 158.1 | 110 |
| 7 | -3 | Stanford | 0.876 | 0.532 | 54 | 31.3 | 4 | 14.3 | 11 | 162.3 | 93 |
| 8 | +1 | TCU | 0.839 | 0.449 | 78 | 29.2 | 7 | 15.1 | 19 | 163.5 | 79 |
| 9 | +2 | Oklahoma St. | 0.832 | 0.552 | 49 | 28.8 | 8 | 15.2 | 23 | 179.7 | 7 |
| 10 | -- | Florida St. | 0.817 | 0.559 | 46 | 25.9 | 15 | 14.3 | 14 | 158.8 | 106 |
| 11 | -3 | Ohio St. | 0.796 | 0.547 | 51 | 22.7 | 34 | 13.2 | 7 | 159.8 | 103 |
| 12 | +6 | Arkansas | 0.794 | 0.590 | 30 | 29.4 | 6 | 17.1 | 39 | 169.6 | 36 |
| 13 | -1 | Virginia Tech | 0.786 | 0.512 | 60 | 23.6 | 26 | 14.0 | 8 | 158.7 | 107 |
| 14 | -- | Notre Dame | 0.780 | 0.602 | 23 | 24.0 | 25 | 14.5 | 15 | 166.6 | 57 |
| 15 | +8 | Georgia | 0.778 | 0.583 | 33 | 27.4 | 11 | 16.6 | 35 | 161.9 | 95 |
| 16 | +4 | Michigan | 0.767 | 0.531 | 56 | 26.2 | 13 | 16.3 | 32 | 160.1 | 100 |
| 17 | -1 | Nebraska | 0.763 | 0.571 | 36 | 22.8 | 31 | 14.3 | 13 | 167.2 | 55 |
| 18 | -1 | South Carolina | 0.762 | 0.617 | 15 | 24.2 | 23 | 15.2 | 21 | 159.7 | 104 |
| 19 | -6 | Florida | 0.762 | 0.637 | 8 | 23.5 | 27 | 14.8 | 16 | 160.0 | 101 |
| 20 | -1 | USC | 0.757 | 0.578 | 35 | 24.4 | 18 | 15.5 | 25 | 169.3 | 38 |
| 21 | +1 | Michigan St. | 0.755 | 0.597 | 26 | 22.0 | 37 | 14.0 | 9 | 164.2 | 74 |
| 22 | -7 | Texas | 0.739 | 0.554 | 48 | 22.7 | 33 | 15.0 | 18 | 161.1 | 98 |
| 23 | -2 | Texas A&M | 0.736 | 0.632 | 10 | 22.6 | 35 | 15.0 | 17 | 184.2 | 1 |
| 24 | NA | Missouri | 0.733 | 0.628 | 12 | 21.3 | 43 | 14.2 | 10 | 172.7 | 23 |
| 25 | -- | Miami-FL | 0.720 | 0.628 | 13 | 24.4 | 19 | 16.7 | 36 | 158.5 | 109 |
Rankings through games of 2011-11-13
New entries: Missouri.
Dropped out: Clemson.
It's week 12, and we all know what that means: time for Clemson to start playing the hokey pokey with the top 25 (see last year's "you put your whole team in, you take your whole team out, you put your whole team in, .... you take your whole team out, you put your whole team in, and you shake it all about").
Neither Alabama nor LSU did much to change TFG's assessment of their teams. About the only thing that can be said of them is that LSU's offense did poorly enough against Western Kentucky that TFG dropped them to third place, offense-wise, below Wisconsin. Behind them, Boise State's kicking woes continued, but the real issue from TFG's perspective is that they gave up 36 points to (8) TCU and dropped notably in defensive efficiency. It'll be cold comfort to the Broncos that none of the Oklahoma/Oregon/Wisconsin triumvirate did well enough to overtake them.
Thanks to some generous gifts from Stanford, Oregon has leapt into fifth place, but due to an early-season dud against LSU we know that the Ducks are unlikely to make it to the title game. Against Stanford the Ducks held their own on defense -- leaving their defensive efficiency ranked fifth -- and managed to pick up 1.4 PPH on offense. Oklahoma had a bye week and were beneficiaries of Stanford's ineptitude in Palo Alto.
Just a shade below them, Oklahoma State picked up 1.3 PPH on offense and 0.6 PPH on defense on their change upwards through the ranks. Last year we saw another perennial second-tier team work their way up the ranks to a national title, and TFG continues to be similarly skeptical about Oklahoma State; like 2010 Auburn, it's Oklahoma State's second-rate defense that is cause for concern.
Separated by less than 0.020 of expected winning percentage (EWP) we have a grouping of Ohio State (dropping), Arkansas (rising), Virginia Tech (unchanged, EWP-wise), Notre Dame (unchanged), and Georgia (rising rapidly). The interesting scenario at play is Oklahoma over Oklahoma State (likely) and Georgia over LSU (unlikely), leaving no undefeated teams of note at the end of the year.
In short, this year we appear to have Alabama, LSU, and everyone else. It's been that way since week 8, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. The big question that remains is how the BCS is going to sort this out.
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