Game of the Week
Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators
GUGS Score: 72.1
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Florida | 0.769 | 0.637 | 8 | 23.8 | 23 | 14.8 | 17 | 160.1 | 100 |
| 11 | Florida St. | 0.800 | 0.552 | 50 | 25.3 | 16 | 14.5 | 12 | 157.8 | 111 |
This is a showdown of teams that TFG has tended to overestimate this year. The Seminoles have lost three ACC games by a total of 11 points, while the Gators have lost three of their conference games by a total of 20 points (we'll ignore LSU and Alabama). While the Seminoles have a 1.5 PPH advantage on offense and a slight 0.3 PPH advantage on D, home field will give the Gators a better shot than they would otherwise. Both teams are better than their records would indicate, so it'll be interesting to see how these evenly-matched squads stack up. TFG gives the slight nod to the Seminoles, but it's effectively a coin toss. Florida St. 31, Florida 30 (54.7%); 158 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Florida | 0.864 | 0.554 | 8 | 20.7 | 20 | 8.1 | 3 | 161.4 | 109 |
| 15 | Florida St. | 0.894 | 0.549 | 13 | 19.2 | 31 | 10.3 | 8 | 165.9 | 74 |
What is this, 2000? Oh yeah, the game of the week was played yesterday. If nothing else, this game should be unpredictable. (17) Florida's offense and defense can be spectacular but have been spectacularly absent against stronger competition at 34.8 +/- 28.1 PPH and 0.0 +/- 29.2 PPH, respectively. (14) Florida State's offense is far more consistent than the Gators'. However, that's a bad thing at 25.3 +/- 12.2 PPH. The Seminole defense isn't much of an improvement at 0.0 +/- 20.1 PPH. RBA says Florida should win 28-24 with 63.0%, but with flakiness like this, one can never be too sure.
Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game
Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers
GUGS Score: 54.5
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wisconsin | 0.958 | 0.533 | 42 | 28.0 | 1 | 11.5 | 19 | 161.6 | 107 |
| 31 | Penn State | 0.748 | 0.542 | 27 | 13.4 | 87 | 9.4 | 4 | 163.5 | 96 |
(31) Penn State's defense is a solid 4.6 +/- 9.6 PPH, but they're going to need their 20.0 +/- 13.2 PPH offense to step up against the (6) Badgers. Wisconsin's offense has sputtered in the last few weeks but is a vastly superior 39.3 +/- 22.5 PPH. Their defense is above average but not spectacular at 4.0 +/- 15.0 PPH. It shouldn't matter, though, as Penn State has had tremendous trouble moving the ball against anybody. The Nittany Lion defense can keep this one from getting too out of hand, but Wisconsin should win, 34-17, with 79.7% probability.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wisconsin | 0.869 | 0.503 | 66 | 33.2 | 1 | 15.6 | 26 | 157.2 | 112 |
| 22 | Penn State | 0.732 | 0.595 | 24 | 17.5 | 75 | 11.7 | 3 | 167.4 | 52 |
The Nittany Lions are the most bipolar team in FBS right now. If you want some sense of just how different Penn State is on either side of the ball, imagine pairing the (80) Washington State offense with the (2) LSU defense; that's basically the Penn State team this year. Thanks to slugging performances by Alabama and LSU, the Badgers not possess the top-ranked offense in FBS. This really will be an unstoppable force against an immovable object. Unfortunately for Penn State, TFG says that this will end like most of these showdowns: the unstoppable force wins. In this case it'll be the Penn State offense that lets them down and doesn't keep them in the game. Wisconsin 36, Penn State 26 (70.7%); 162 plays.
Shootout of the Week
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Baylor Bears
GUGS Score: 40.7
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Baylor | 0.574 | 0.618 | 14 | 24.5 | 19 | 21.7 | 79 | 176.2 | 13 |
| 71 | Texas Tech | 0.440 | 0.586 | 34 | 19.5 | 56 | 21.5 | 75 | 181.2 | 4 |
What can we say? Big XII teams like to play fast. Normally this leads to teams getting an inflated reputation on offense and a bum rap on defense, but in this case the accusations of having a dodgy defense are actually valid. Neither squad has a defense ranked in the top half of FBS, so let's just say that the first to 60 points wins. TFG consistently under-estimates the final scores of these shootouts, but it's a safe bet that the combined score here will crack 80. The computer gives the slight nod to Baylor since their offense seems to be more of a threat than the flukey Red Raider squad. Baylor 41, Texas Tech 36 (63.1%); 178 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | Baylor | 0.591 | 0.563 | 3 | 20.6 | 23 | 18.3 | 79 | 172.4 | 12 |
| 63 | Texas Tech | 0.464 | 0.531 | 46 | 18.0 | 40 | 18.5 | 81 | 179.6 | 1 |
Let's just call this the Oklahoma Spoiler Bowl. (50) Baylor is a high-scoring team primarily due to their pace. Their offense produces only 23.4 +/- 5.6 PPH. (63) Texas Tech is the same story at 26.1 +/- 16.1 PPH. Neither team plays much defense, so we can expect a lot of points. RBA says Baylor wins 38-31 with 58.6% confidence.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
UAB Blazers at Florida Atlantic Owls
GUGS Score: 31.4
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | FL-Atlantic | 0.009 | 0.436 | 113 | 7.0 | 118 | 23.0 | 112 | 164.9 | 84 |
| 117 | UAB | 0.017 | 0.478 | 80 | 12.0 | 102 | 21.1 | 102 | 164.8 | 87 |
I know virtually nothing about these teams. In fact, Yahoo! sports doesn't know anything about them and fails to provide a preview for the game. Here's what I do know about these teams. (117) Florida Atlantic and (118) UAB are two of the four worst teams in the country according to RBA. UAB's defense would surrender 23.8 PPH to Florida Atlantic but the Owls' offense can muster only 11.5 PPH. These teams are all kinds of awful, and the only reason why this game is 73.7% in favor of Florida-Atlantic is because their strengths are so low that minor differences result in big changes in probability. RBA says Florida-Atlantic, 31-27.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117 | FL-Atlantic | 0.070 | 0.384 | 95 | 10.7 | 118 | 30.1 | 115 | 159.8 | 102 |
| 112 | UAB | 0.151 | 0.394 | 92 | 14.9 | 107 | 29.8 | 114 | 166.6 | 56 |
The sad fact is that these teams are so bad that Eddie didn't realize that he'd originally written his coin toss summary using my stats and outcome. I've kind of given up on trying to explain to the computer that even if we disagree vehemently about the outcome of a game, that doesn't mean that it's going to be good. In this case we have two of the seven worst defenses in FBS facing off against two of the 14 worst offenses. A game of the century it ain't, but at least I correctly point out that my computer likes UAB's offense much better than Florida-Atlantic's (hey, the Blazers are only 2.6 PPH shy of Penn State on offense) and that's going to be the deciding factor. UAB 36, FL-Atlantic 33 (70.3%); 163 plays.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 28.66 - 9.34 | 75.43% |
| TFG | 27.92 - 10.08 | 73.47% |
