Well that was a slightly crazy week. Let's see how the computer reacted.
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.967 | 0.614 | 17 | 33.1 | 2 | 8.6 | 1 | 153.1 | 120 |
| 2 | -- | LSU | 0.940 | 0.629 | 11 | 32.5 | 3 | 10.8 | 2 | 155.3 | 117 |
| 3 | -- | Boise St. | 0.891 | 0.480 | 68 | 31.2 | 5 | 13.5 | 7 | 165.2 | 64 |
| 4 | +1 | Oregon | 0.872 | 0.612 | 19 | 27.4 | 9 | 12.7 | 5 | 183.1 | 1 |
| 5 | -1 | Oklahoma | 0.869 | 0.582 | 38 | 26.9 | 11 | 12.6 | 4 | 180.7 | 5 |
| 6 | -- | Wisconsin | 0.869 | 0.503 | 66 | 33.2 | 1 | 15.6 | 26 | 157.2 | 112 |
| 7 | -- | Stanford | 0.866 | 0.539 | 53 | 31.3 | 4 | 14.8 | 16 | 161.8 | 93 |
| 8 | -- | TCU | 0.838 | 0.431 | 78 | 28.7 | 7 | 14.9 | 18 | 162.6 | 88 |
| 9 | +3 | Arkansas | 0.812 | 0.587 | 33 | 30.2 | 6 | 16.8 | 37 | 170.0 | 37 |
| 10 | -1 | Oklahoma St. | 0.808 | 0.541 | 52 | 27.9 | 8 | 15.7 | 27 | 181.3 | 3 |
| 11 | -1 | Florida St. | 0.800 | 0.552 | 50 | 25.3 | 16 | 14.5 | 12 | 157.8 | 111 |
| 12 | +4 | Michigan | 0.797 | 0.554 | 48 | 27.4 | 10 | 15.9 | 31 | 160.6 | 99 |
| 13 | +8 | Michigan St. | 0.790 | 0.562 | 44 | 22.7 | 30 | 13.3 | 6 | 164.2 | 75 |
| 14 | -1 | Virginia Tech | 0.782 | 0.521 | 60 | 23.8 | 24 | 14.3 | 9 | 158.6 | 107 |
| 15 | -1 | Notre Dame | 0.770 | 0.592 | 28 | 23.5 | 27 | 14.5 | 11 | 167.3 | 55 |
| 16 | +3 | Florida | 0.769 | 0.637 | 8 | 23.8 | 23 | 14.8 | 17 | 160.1 | 100 |
| 17 | -6 | Ohio St. | 0.763 | 0.547 | 51 | 22.4 | 31 | 14.1 | 8 | 158.8 | 106 |
| 18 | -- | South Carolina | 0.762 | 0.614 | 16 | 24.4 | 20 | 15.3 | 21 | 159.6 | 103 |
| 19 | -4 | Georgia | 0.762 | 0.553 | 49 | 26.0 | 14 | 16.3 | 36 | 161.6 | 96 |
| 20 | -- | USC | 0.758 | 0.598 | 22 | 25.0 | 17 | 15.8 | 29 | 169.0 | 40 |
| 21 | +2 | Texas A&M | 0.758 | 0.596 | 23 | 23.0 | 28 | 14.6 | 13 | 182.4 | 2 |
| 22 | NA | Penn State | 0.732 | 0.595 | 24 | 17.5 | 75 | 11.7 | 3 | 167.4 | 52 |
| 23 | -6 | Nebraska | 0.727 | 0.584 | 35 | 22.2 | 34 | 15.0 | 20 | 168.0 | 49 |
| 24 | -2 | Texas | 0.727 | 0.559 | 46 | 21.6 | 38 | 14.6 | 14 | 160.8 | 98 |
| 25 | -1 | Missouri | 0.715 | 0.613 | 18 | 21.2 | 43 | 14.7 | 15 | 171.8 | 27 |
Rankings through games of 2011-11-20
New entries: Penn State.
Dropped out: Miami-FL.
Alabama and LSU played FCS teams last week and since our models don't examine those games, they were treated as having a bye week. From there, it's a race to the bottom. Oregon didn't so much gain a place as they failed slightly less than the teams around them. Everyone from Boise State to Stanford lost ground this week to varying degrees:
| Team | Change since last week |
|---|---|
| Boise State | -0.007 |
| Oregon | -0.016 |
| Oklahoma | -0.020 |
| Wisconsin | -0.008 |
| Stanford | -0.010 |
Arkansas may be up to #3 in the BCS, but they're still only #9 in the TFG rankings; as with previous Arkansas teams, it's their defense that remains problematic. The crazy ACC continues to provide thrills as North Carolina State put the nail in the coffin of Clemson's BCS hopes, while UVa's upset of the Seminoles gives them a good shot at crashing the ACC title game.
The bottom line is that while the prospects of an LSU-Alabama rematch in the national championship don't seem that thrilling, TFG can't argue against that being the best possible matchup. The Crimson Tide and the Tigers have been so dominant this year -- and the rest of the field so inconsistent -- that we may be on a collision course for a rematch. They say that defense wins championships, and while that may not necessarily be true it's indisputable that the remaining second-tier candidates -- Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Stanford -- suffer from questionable defense. The only team with a defense in the top 10 are the Hokies, and their offense is barely in the top 25.
But what does it take to win a national title? With the exception of the 2006 Florida Gators, every team that has won a championship since 2003 has been in the top three of either offense or defense. With the exception of the 2010 Auburn Tigers, that top-three talent has been paired with a top-10 squad on the other side of the ball. As of right now, the only teams that meet those criteria are Alabama and LSU. Stretching it out to include Auburn (#2 offense, #28 defense), that only adds Wisconsin to the mix (#3 offense, #26 defense); seeing as the Badgers are #16 in the BCS right now, though, that effectively rules them out.
Assuming that LSU will face Georgia in the SEC title game, the current odds of the national championship game being a rematch stand at 61.5%.
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