Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Week 13: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

This week we're doing something a little different. Since we're down to only two undefeated teams in FBS and one of them isn't a legitimate title contender, we've expanded our scope to include one-loss teams from BCS conferences (sorry, Boise State). First, the undefeated teams.
Odds as of games through 2011-11-20


Legitimate Title Contenders

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.940 2 0.629 11 32.5 3 10.8 2 155.3 117

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4% 184
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4% 150
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4% 188
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0% 162
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6% 141
2011/10/15   3 LSU 38 at  32 Tennessee 7 81.4% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 10 at   2 LSU 45 88.6% 144
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 27.4% 143
2011/11/12  97 Western Kentucky 9 at   2 LSU 42 98.0% 151
2011/11/19   2 LSU 52 at  87 Mississippi 3 96.6% 139
2011/11/25   9 Arkansas 33 at   2 LSU 40 78.2% 162


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 25, vs Arkansas Razorbacks, 78.2%
Notes: Realistically this will be the second-toughest game for the Tigers, after their 9-6 shootout against Alabama. Keep in mind that the Crimson Tide thrashed Arkansas by a score of 38-14, so anything less than that will be a disappointment.


Long Shots

Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.689 27 0.315 114 26.1 13 19.0 61 179.8 6

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5% 170
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3% 186
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2% 205
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1% 178
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1% 182
2011/10/22  94 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 63 84.8% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  46 Houston 73 87.2% 179
2011/11/05  40 Houston 56 at 112 UAB 13 89.2% 176
2011/11/10  35 Houston 73 at 114 Tulane 17 91.3% 187
2011/11/19  65 SMU 7 at  32 Houston 37 68.8% 167
2011/11/25  27 Houston 38 at  31 Tulsa 36 53.1% 178


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 25, at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 53.1%
Notes: Still in the wrong conference.

Next up, the ....

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2011-11-20

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.967 1 0.614 17 33.1 2 8.6 1 153.1 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6% 172
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5% 164
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1% 153
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5% 146
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 98.5% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  72 Mississippi 7 96.9% 141
2011/10/22  42 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 96.9% 138
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 72.6% 143
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 24 at  39 Mississippi St. 7 93.7% 155
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  39 Auburn 26 94.7% 158


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.1
Most difficult game left: November 26, at Auburn Tigers, 94.7%
Notes: As odd as it may be, we really on track to a rematch for the title game. As mentioned yesterday, the odds of that are about 3-in-5.


Virginia Tech Hokies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.782 14 0.521 60 23.8 24 14.3 9 158.6 107

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/10   9 Virginia Tech 17 at  72 East Carolina 10 83.3% 150
2011/09/17  85 Arkansas St. 7 at  11 Virginia Tech 26 93.5% 163
2011/09/24  11 Virginia Tech 30 at  99 Marshall 10 92.2% 157
2011/10/01  23 Clemson 23 at  11 Virginia Tech 3 73.2% 162
2011/10/08  29 Miami-FL 35 at  11 Virginia Tech 38 69.5% 146
2011/10/15  13 Virginia Tech 38 at  71 Wake Forest 17 78.7% 167
2011/10/22  88 Boston College 14 at  12 Virginia Tech 30 93.2% 158
2011/10/29  13 Virginia Tech 14 at  81 Duke 10 81.9% 162
2011/11/10  12 Virginia Tech 37 at  37 Georgia Tech 26 64.2% 147
2011/11/17  43 North Carolina 21 at  13 Virginia Tech 24 70.1% 157
2011/11/26  14 Virginia Tech 33 at  66 Virginia 25 80.1% 163


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: November 26, at Virginia Cavaliers, 80.1%
Notes: We may be overestimating the Hokies' odds here since the Cavaliers are a team on the rise. Regardless, some teams will need to lose before the Hokies have a shot at the title game.


Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.866 7 0.539 53 31.3 4 14.8 16 161.8 93

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8% 162
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4% 155
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6% 155
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3% 152
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  82 Washington St. 14 93.1% 157
2011/10/22  44 Washington 21 at   4 Stanford 65 91.4% 159
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 56 at  24 USC 48 69.6% 191
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 38 at  61 Oregon St. 13 88.6% 149
2011/11/12   7 Oregon 53 at   4 Stanford 30 59.7% 166
2011/11/19  51 California 28 at   7 Stanford 31 84.8% 153
2011/11/26  15 Notre Dame 31 at   7 Stanford 37 65.8% 164


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 26, vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 65.8%
Notes: Another game in Palo Alto, and hopefully this will go better than the last showdown the Cardinal hosted. Between a multi-OT shootout with USC and a loss to Oregon, Stanford will need to do better if they want to prove they belong.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.808 10 0.541 52 27.9 8 15.7 27 181.3 3

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7% 196
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2% 185
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1% 202
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8% 186
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 Texas 26 51.6% 184
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 Missouri 24 42.6% 187
2011/10/29  50 Baylor 24 at  12 Oklahoma St. 59 83.3% 190
2011/11/05  35 Kansas St. 45 at  10 Oklahoma St. 52 75.4% 181
2011/11/12  11 Oklahoma St. 66 at  60 Texas Tech 6 77.1% 179
2011/11/18   9 Oklahoma St. 31 at  77 Iowa St. 37 88.6% 211
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  10 Oklahoma St. 36 38.6% 180


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 38.6%
Notes: This may be underestimating the Cowboys' chances since the Sooners have some key injuries. The bottom line is that they have to win this game if they want any chance of having a shot at LSU.


Arkansas Razorbacks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.812 9 0.587 33 30.2 6 16.8 37 170.0 37

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/10 116 New Mexico 3 at  13 Arkansas 52 98.5% 173
2011/09/17  72 Troy 28 at  10 Arkansas 38 92.1% 189
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 13.9% 145
2011/10/01  12 Texas A&M 38 vs  13 Arkansas 42 48.4% 208
2011/10/08  26 Auburn 14 at  17 Arkansas 38 64.6% 178
2011/10/22  11 Arkansas 29 at  74 Mississippi 24 80.1% 161
2011/10/29  15 Arkansas 31 at  83 Vanderbilt 28 80.4% 166
2011/11/05  17 South Carolina 28 at  22 Arkansas 44 50.2% 159
2011/11/12  43 Tennessee 7 at  18 Arkansas 49 70.8% 161
2011/11/19  39 Mississippi St. 17 at  12 Arkansas 44 69.7% 173
2011/11/25   9 Arkansas 33 at   2 LSU 40 21.8% 162


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-4.6
Most difficult game left: November 25, at LSU Tigers, 21.8%
Notes: I'll let Eddie handle the description of the tiebreakers and why Arkansas can pull this off.


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