Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 82.8%
Notes: At this point LSU is a lock for the title game. Even a loss to Georgia wouldn't derail them, but that seems unlikely. A loss to the Bulldogs would potentially affect who the Tigers play in the title game -- there are limits to the number of teams from a single conference that can be in the BCS -- but we're shaping up for an LSU/Alabama rematch.
Houston Cougars
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2011
0.721
23
0.335
111
26.7
12
18.2
53
180.0
5
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
Plays
2011/09/03
78
UCLA
34
at
63
Houston
38
74.5%
170
2011/09/10
65
Houston
48
at
109
North Texas
23
73.3%
186
2011/09/17
63
Houston
35
at
77
LA Tech
34
51.2%
205
2011/09/29
63
Houston
49
at
96
UTEP
42
62.1%
178
2011/10/08
80
East Carolina
3
at
66
Houston
56
67.1%
182
2011/10/22
94
Marshall
28
at
52
Houston
63
84.8%
169
2011/10/27
98
Rice
34
at
46
Houston
73
87.2%
179
2011/11/05
40
Houston
56
at
112
UAB
13
89.2%
176
2011/11/10
35
Houston
73
at
114
Tulane
17
91.3%
187
2011/11/19
65
SMU
7
at
32
Houston
37
68.8%
167
2011/11/25
27
Houston
48
at
30
Tulsa
16
53.1%
190
2011/12/03
43
Southern Miss.
35
vs
23
Houston
39
63.2%
177
Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 63.2%
Notes: To be fair to the Cougars, they're not quite 2007 Hawaii but aren't exactly 2006 Boise State yet. They would get totally thrashed if they played LSU or Alabama -- who wouldn't? -- but are getting to the point where they'd have a small shot against someone like Virginia Tech or Stanford.
One-Loss Hopefuls
Odds as of games through 2011-11-27
Stanford Cardinal
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2011
0.874
6
0.556
50
30.9
5
14.3
13
162.7
89
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
Plays
2011/09/03
115
SJSU
3
at
6
Stanford
57
98.8%
162
2011/09/10
6
Stanford
44
at
90
Duke
14
91.4%
155
2011/09/17
5
Stanford
37
at
40
Arizona
10
76.6%
155
2011/10/01
76
UCLA
19
at
4
Stanford
45
95.3%
152
2011/10/08
76
Colorado
7
at
5
Stanford
48
95.2%
155
2011/10/15
4
Stanford
44
at
82
Washington St.
14
93.1%
157
2011/10/22
44
Washington
21
at
4
Stanford
65
91.4%
159
2011/10/29
4
Stanford
56
at
24
USC
48
69.6%
191
2011/11/05
4
Stanford
38
at
61
Oregon St.
13
88.6%
149
2011/11/12
7
Oregon
53
at
4
Stanford
30
59.7%
166
2011/11/19
51
California
28
at
7
Stanford
31
84.8%
152
2011/11/26
15
Notre Dame
14
at
7
Stanford
28
65.8%
174
Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Stanford's season is over, and all that's left to do is wait and see if they get an at-large bid. The Cardinal are one of three teams currently splitting the "anyone-but-Alabama" votes in the BCS poll.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2011
0.962
1
0.616
14
33.4
2
9.1
1
152.3
120
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
Plays
2011/09/03
100
Kent St.
7
at
3
Alabama
48
98.6%
172
2011/09/10
2
Alabama
27
at
33
Penn State
11
79.5%
164
2011/09/17
106
North Texas
0
at
1
Alabama
41
99.1%
153
2011/09/24
12
Arkansas
14
at
1
Alabama
38
86.1%
145
2011/10/01
1
Alabama
38
at
3
Florida
10
58.5%
146
2011/10/08
86
Vanderbilt
0
at
1
Alabama
34
98.5%
140
2011/10/15
1
Alabama
52
at
72
Mississippi
7
96.9%
141
2011/10/22
42
Tennessee
6
at
1
Alabama
37
96.9%
138
2011/11/05
2
LSU
9
at
1
Alabama
6
72.6%
143
2011/11/12
1
Alabama
24
at
39
Mississippi St.
7
93.7%
155
2011/11/26
1
Alabama
42
at
39
Auburn
14
94.7%
136
Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Like Stanford, the Crimson Tide are done for now and just waiting to see where they end up. Again, if the BCS wants an LSU/Alabama rematch, it'd be difficult to argue against that.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2011
0.815
9
0.502
66
24.4
21
13.5
7
158.0
109
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
Plays
2011/09/10
9
Virginia Tech
17
at
72
East Carolina
10
83.3%
150
2011/09/17
85
Arkansas St.
7
at
11
Virginia Tech
26
93.5%
163
2011/09/24
11
Virginia Tech
30
at
99
Marshall
10
92.2%
157
2011/10/01
23
Clemson
23
at
11
Virginia Tech
3
73.2%
162
2011/10/08
29
Miami-FL
35
at
11
Virginia Tech
38
69.5%
146
2011/10/15
13
Virginia Tech
38
at
71
Wake Forest
17
78.7%
167
2011/10/22
88
Boston College
14
at
12
Virginia Tech
30
93.2%
158
2011/10/29
13
Virginia Tech
14
at
81
Duke
10
81.9%
162
2011/11/10
12
Virginia Tech
37
at
37
Georgia Tech
26
64.2%
147
2011/11/17
43
North Carolina
21
at
13
Virginia Tech
24
70.1%
157
2011/11/26
14
Virginia Tech
38
at
66
Virginia
0
80.1%
151
2011/12/03
9
Virginia Tech
34
vs
35
Clemson
28
72.1%
164
Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Clemson Tigers, 72.1%
Notes: They Hokies get a shot at the team that beat them in a freak upset. Then again, freak upsets aren't all that uncommon. Virginia Tech is the second team that's getting "anyone-but-Alabama" title attention, but they are currently much less deserving than Stanford.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2011
0.800
12
0.536
55
27.7
9
15.9
27
181.2
4
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
Plays
2011/09/03
110
LA-Lafayette
34
at
16
Oklahoma St.
61
96.7%
196
2011/09/08
34
Arizona
14
at
22
Oklahoma St.
37
69.2%
185
2011/09/18
15
Oklahoma St.
59
at
55
Tulsa
33
66.1%
202
2011/09/24
17
Oklahoma St.
30
at
14
Texas A&M
29
38.3%
199
2011/10/08
89
Kansas
28
at
18
Oklahoma St.
70
91.8%
186
2011/10/15
15
Oklahoma St.
38
at
29
Texas
26
51.6%
184
2011/10/22
15
Oklahoma St.
45
at
22
Missouri
24
42.6%
187
2011/10/29
50
Baylor
24
at
12
Oklahoma St.
59
83.3%
190
2011/11/05
35
Kansas St.
45
at
10
Oklahoma St.
52
75.4%
181
2011/11/12
11
Oklahoma St.
66
at
60
Texas Tech
6
77.1%
179
2011/11/18
9
Oklahoma St.
31
at
77
Iowa St.
37
88.6%
211
2011/12/03
5
Oklahoma
38
at
12
Oklahoma St.
35
36.3%
180
Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 36.3%
Notes: This is one of those games that's going to depend on one factor my computer doesn't consider: injuries. Right now the computer says that the Sooners are 2-to-1 favorites, but Vegas lists the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite. Currently Oklahoma State is the third -- and least-deserving -- of the "anyone-but-Alabama" teams. Hopefully a loss to the Sooners will cut back on the chaos some.
