Today is Part I of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
FIU Golden Panthers vs Marshall Thundering Herd - Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Temple Owls vs Wyoming Cowboys - R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns - Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons - BBVA Compass Bowl
Pittsburgh Panthers vs SMU Mustangs
35. Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Tuesday, December 20 at 8:00 PM
FIU Golden Panthers (8 - 4; 5 - 3 Sun Belt)
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd (6 - 6; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd (6 - 6; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)
GUGS Score: 23.2
Eddie
FIU Golden Panthers | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.417 | 70 | 0.438 | 111 | 13.3 | 89 | 14.0 | 45 | 165.8 | 74 |
Marshall Thundering Herd | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.214 | 95 | 0.474 | 83 | 12.6 | 98 | 18.7 | 82 | 165.5 | 80 |
We care about these games about as much as you do. Unfortunately, we promised to preview all the games and have to make them sound interesting. According to Wikipedia, Beef 'O' Brady's is a Florida-based Irish pub-themed restaurant franchise that does not serve hard liquor. Ironically, this game will likely promote very family unfriendly behavior, featuring two teams that will stumble through the entire game and make you want to shout obscenities at the television. The FIU Golden Panthers (I didn't have to look that up, by the way) muster only a 19.2 +/- 11.8 PPH offense. If it were possible to get any worse, the Thundering Herd manage to do it, featuring a 21.8 +/- 18.3 PPH offense. It boggles the mind how they were able to beat Southern Miss. FIU should run away with this game because Marshall flat out can't play defense (10.8 +/- 15.7 PPH). RBA predicts an FIU victory, 31-20, with 70.3% confidence. This preview has been brought to you by Wikipedia. Please consider a personal appeal from researcher Maryana Pinchuk.
Justin
FIU Golden Panthers | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.405 | 76 | 0.291 | 118 | 17.3 | 80 | 20.2 | 67 | 165.5 | 65 |
Marshall Thundering Herd | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.285 | 96 | 0.423 | 78 | 15.5 | 99 | 22.5 | 85 | 164.7 | 69 |
While this game might not get much attention outside of the FIU and Marshall campuses, it is noteworthy for one reason: it's even less interesting than last year's least interesting bowl game. In summary: this game will not be close. Nor will it be high-scoring. Nor are the teams any good; in fact, Marshall ties last year's Miami-Ohio Redhawks as the worst team of the bowl season, both clocking in at (96) in the TFG rankings. In light of an actual preview of the game, I provide some trivia about the universities.
Also, FIU will probably win. FIU 32, Marshall 29 (63.0%); 165 plays.
- Marshall University is a coeducational public research university;
- It is located in Huntington, West Virginia.;
- It was founded in 1837; and
- It was named after John Marshall, the fourth Chief Justice of the United States.
- Florida-International is an American public research university;
- It is located in metropolitan Miami, Florida;
- It was founded in 1965; and
- It is the youngest university to be awarded a Phi Beta Kappa chapter by the Phi Beta Kappa Society, the country's oldest academic honor society.
Also, FIU will probably win. FIU 32, Marshall 29 (63.0%); 165 plays.
FIU Golden Panthers Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/01 | 106 | / 104 | North Texas | 16 | at | 85 | / 84 | FIU | 41 | 166 | 77.6% | / 67.3% |
2011/09/09 | 82 | / 70 | FIU | 24 | at | 51 | / 46 | Louisville | 17 | 158 | 18.6% | / 18.0% |
2011/09/17 | 27 | / 28 | UCF | 10 | at | 74 | / 55 | FIU | 17 | 151 | 29.7% | / 23.9% |
2011/09/24 | 103 | / 102 | LA-Lafayette | 36 | at | 68 | / 55 | FIU | 31 | 172 | 81.8% | / 79.2% |
2011/10/01 | 84 | / 73 | Duke | 31 | at | 77 | / 60 | FIU | 27 | 173 | 63.7% | / 71.5% |
2011/10/08 | 78 | / 53 | FIU | 27 | at | 120 | / 119 | Akron | 17 | 166 | 89.9% | / 96.8% |
2011/10/18 | 78 | / 61 | FIU | 16 | at | 87 | / 80 | Arkansas St. | 34 | 164 | 45.1% | / 67.7% |
2011/10/25 | 89 | / 94 | Troy | 20 | at | 85 | / 69 | FIU | 23 | 181 | 64.2% | / 65.9% |
2011/11/05 | 81 | / 68 | FIU | 9 | at | 98 | / 95 | Western Kentucky | 10 | 143 | 58.5% | / 73.7% |
2011/11/12 | 117 | / 117 | FL-Atlantic | 7 | at | 83 | / 71 | FIU | 41 | 166 | 87.0% | / 92.2% |
2011/11/19 | 79 | / 70 | FIU | 28 | at | 100 | / 96 | LA-Monroe | 17 | 199 | 63.2% | / 75.2% |
2011/11/26 | 77 | / 72 | FIU | 31 | at | 109 | / 108 | Middle Tenn. | 18 | 174 | 74.8% | / 83.4% |
2011/12/20 | 96 | / 95 | Marshall | -- | vs | 76 | / 70 | FIU | -- | -- | 63.0% | / 70.3% |
Marshall Thundering Herd Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/04 | 93 | / 95 | Marshall | 13 | at | 19 | / 18 | West Virginia | 34 | 127 | 7.1% | / 7.7% |
2011/09/10 | 63 | / 61 | Southern Miss. | 20 | at | 92 | / 89 | Marshall | 26 | 186 | 40.9% | / 20.8% |
2011/09/17 | 91 | / 99 | Marshall | 7 | at | 83 | / 73 | Ohio | 44 | 173 | 36.3% | / 40.3% |
2011/09/24 | 11 | / 11 | Virginia Tech | 30 | at | 99 | / 103 | Marshall | 10 | 157 | 7.8% | / 8.5% |
2011/10/01 | 99 | / 104 | Marshall | 17 | at | 51 | / 50 | Louisville | 13 | 160 | 14.7% | / 19.6% |
2011/10/08 | 93 | / 102 | Marshall | 6 | at | 43 | / 43 | UCF | 16 | 148 | 15.4% | / 10.2% |
2011/10/15 | 97 | / 96 | Rice | 20 | at | 92 | / 99 | Marshall | 24 | 158 | 60.7% | / 52.0% |
2011/10/22 | 94 | / 99 | Marshall | 28 | at | 52 | / 45 | Houston | 63 | 169 | 15.2% | / 29.1% |
2011/10/29 | 109 | / 119 | UAB | 14 | at | 96 | / 92 | Marshall | 59 | 171 | 73.4% | / 63.8% |
2011/11/12 | 89 | / 84 | Marshall | 17 | at | 40 | / 44 | Tulsa | 59 | 187 | 19.4% | / 19.5% |
2011/11/17 | 95 | / 94 | Marshall | 23 | at | 118 | / 114 | Memphis | 22 | 162 | 86.7% | / 92.6% |
2011/11/26 | 81 | / 86 | East Carolina | 27 | at | 97 | / 95 | Marshall | 34 | 170 | 39.1% | / 56.0% |
2011/12/20 | 96 | / 95 | Marshall | -- | vs | 76 | / 70 | FIU | -- | -- | 37.0% | / 29.7% |
34. Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, December 17 at 2:00 PM
Temple Owls (7 - 4; 5 - 3 Mid-Atlantic)
vs
Wyoming Cowboys (6 - 4; 5 - 2 Mountain West)
vs
Wyoming Cowboys (6 - 4; 5 - 2 Mountain West)
GUGS Score: 24.3
Justin
Temple Owls | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.652 | 31 | 0.302 | 117 | 21.1 | 43 | 16.4 | 32 | 154.6 | 119 |
Wyoming Cowboys | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.306 | 93 | 0.449 | 73 | 15.4 | 102 | 21.4 | 77 | 169.1 | 41 |
Shockingly, this game will also be worse than last year's GoDaddy.com Bowl. It's almost as if you open 70 spots for the best of the 120 teams in FBS, you're going to get some duds. At least both of these teams have winning records against FBS competition. The Owls are actually a good team, with a solid win over Maryland and a close loss against Penn State. Two of their conference losses came by a combined seven points. They don't have a stellar offense or defense, but both are respectable enough that they could have done well in an FBS conference. They deserved better than this. Wyoming isn't necessarily a horrible team, either, but they've had serious problems putting points on the board. In the end, expect Temple to simply overwhelm the Cowboys and pull away. Temple 34, Wyoming 25 (81.0%); 161 plays.
Eddie
Temple Owls | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.716 | 37 | 0.491 | 74 | 16.2 | 61 | 12.5 | 31 | 161.7 | 106 |
Wyoming Cowboys | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.289 | 83 | 0.512 | 62 | 13.5 | 87 | 17.5 | 75 | 167.0 | 56 |
If you thought Philadelphians were mean to Santa Claus, this game might be a bit much for you. RBA considers Temple to be the #37 team in the country, whereas Wyoming clocks in at #83. Yeah, maybe that's a bit high for the Owls, but it's easy to see why. They play decent defense (6.9 +/- 11.3 PPH) and have managed to lose respectably. In fact, the only team to beat Temple by more than four points was Toledo. In contrast, Wyoming has surrendered a lot of points to better competition but hasn't played that well against lesser opponents, too (10.3 +/- 14.5 PPH). RBA thinks that Temple will pound the Cowboys into paste using a sack full of batteries, 34-17, at 75.5% confidence.
Temple Owls Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 64 | / 62 | Temple | 41 | at | 120 | / 118 | Akron | 3 | 156 | 89.4% | / 95.9% |
2011/09/17 | 30 | / 38 | Penn State | 14 | at | 54 | / 61 | Temple | 10 | 155 | 46.3% | / 33.5% |
2011/09/24 | 57 | / 32 | Temple | 38 | at | 40 | / 45 | Maryland | 7 | 153 | 29.9% | / 35.0% |
2011/10/01 | 69 | / 67 | Toledo | 36 | at | 39 | / 20 | Temple | 13 | 141 | 78.1% | / 63.4% |
2011/10/08 | 51 | / 36 | Temple | 42 | at | 103 | / 94 | Ball St. | 0 | 157 | 77.3% | / 90.1% |
2011/10/15 | 111 | / 107 | Buffalo | 0 | at | 38 | / 30 | Temple | 34 | 151 | 94.1% | / 92.3% |
2011/10/22 | 29 | / 28 | Temple | 10 | at | 95 | / 103 | Bowling Green | 13 | 161 | 81.4% | / 91.2% |
2011/11/02 | 31 | / 36 | Temple | 31 | at | 80 | / 82 | Ohio | 35 | 156 | 77.2% | / 82.4% |
2011/11/09 | 90 | / 94 | Miami-OH | 21 | at | 31 | / 42 | Temple | 24 | 155 | 83.2% | / 85.2% |
2011/11/19 | 90 | / 93 | Army | 14 | at | 37 | / 42 | Temple | 42 | 140 | 80.4% | / 76.6% |
2011/11/25 | 102 | / 103 | Kent St. | 16 | at | 31 | / 36 | Temple | 34 | 150 | 86.1% | / 92.3% |
2011/12/17 | 93 | / 83 | Wyoming | -- | vs | 31 | / 37 | Temple | -- | -- | 81.0% | / 75.5% |
Wyoming Cowboys Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/17 | 105 | / 94 | Wyoming | 28 | at | 95 | / 95 | Bowling Green | 27 | 187 | 25.2% | / 39.3% |
2011/09/24 | 18 | / 13 | Nebraska | 38 | at | 104 | / 92 | Wyoming | 14 | 161 | 10.8% | / 8.0% |
2011/10/08 | 104 | / 107 | Wyoming | 19 | at | 91 | / 80 | Utah St. | 63 | 180 | 26.5% | / 40.3% |
2011/10/15 | 112 | / 120 | UNLV | 14 | at | 110 | / 104 | Wyoming | 41 | 164 | 59.8% | / 63.4% |
2011/10/29 | 108 | / 96 | Wyoming | 30 | at | 66 | / 56 | SDSU | 27 | 180 | 12.8% | / 17.5% |
2011/11/05 | 9 | / 17 | TCU | 31 | at | 102 | / 94 | Wyoming | 20 | 156 | 6.1% | / 6.3% |
2011/11/12 | 100 | / 91 | Wyoming | 25 | at | 44 | / 49 | Air Force | 17 | 166 | 15.6% | / 19.4% |
2011/11/19 | 120 | / 115 | New Mexico | 10 | at | 93 | / 84 | Wyoming | 31 | 164 | 89.9% | / 92.5% |
2011/11/26 | 89 | / 83 | Wyoming | 14 | at | 3 | / 8 | Boise St. | 36 | 155 | 5.1% | / 7.4% |
2011/12/03 | 90 | / 83 | Wyoming | 22 | at | 110 | / 109 | Colorado St. | 19 | 168 | 69.7% | / 74.1% |
2011/12/17 | 93 | / 83 | Wyoming | -- | vs | 31 | / 37 | Temple | -- | -- | 19.0% | / 24.5% |
33. R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, December 17 at 9:00 PM
San Diego State Aztecs (7 - 4; 4 - 3 Mountain West)
vs
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7 - 4; 6 - 2 Sun Belt)
vs
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7 - 4; 6 - 2 Sun Belt)
GUGS Score: 26.4
Eddie
San Diego State Aztecs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.509 | 58 | 0.495 | 70 | 16.9 | 51 | 16.3 | 62 | 168.7 | 36 |
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.245 | 89 | 0.427 | 119 | 16.6 | 56 | 21.2 | 103 | 167.5 | 49 |
The Aztecs took a step back this year without Brady Hoke at the helm, but they remain a respectable team. Their offense is an underpowered but consistent 20.0 +/- 6.2 PPH, and their defense is a sketchy 8.4 +/- 15.9 PPH. Although San Diego State has its shortcomings, it should be able to handle the Ragin Cajuns easily. The Louisiana-Lafayette offense shows a similar 18.3 +/- 3.4 PPH. However, they're completely undone by a horrible 11.8 +/- 18.7 PPH defense. It might not be pretty at times, but the Aztecs should win, 38-24, with 66.1% probability.
Justin
San Diego State Aztecs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.524 | 59 | 0.410 | 86 | 18.6 | 66 | 17.9 | 49 | 172.2 | 24 |
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.312 | 91 | 0.339 | 114 | 19.4 | 60 | 26.6 | 107 | 168.5 | 45 |
The Ragin' Cajuns are the third team in our bowl preview to be in the bottom quarter of the TFG rankings, while the Aztecs are (just barely) in the top half. The thing to note is that both teams have pretty evenly matched offenses, but it's a different story on defense. The Aztecs allow a respectable 17.9 PPH on defense, while the Ragin' Cajuns don't so much have a "defense" as they have "a group of 11 players that escort the opponent's offense down the field." At 26.6 PPH, they rate as one of the 15 worst defenses in all of FBS. This will be a somewhat up-tempo game with mid-level offenses; one will go against a mid-level defense, the other will score a lot. SDSU 38, LA-Lafayette 31 (70.7%); 170 plays.
San Diego State Aztecs Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 61 | / 43 | SDSU | 23 | at | 85 | / 83 | Army | 20 | 145 | 55.3% | / 70.2% |
2011/09/17 | 88 | / 56 | Washington St. | 24 | at | 64 | / 46 | SDSU | 42 | 180 | 71.8% | / 88.0% |
2011/09/24 | 59 | / 56 | SDSU | 7 | at | 31 | / 39 | Michigan | 28 | 162 | 24.2% | / 41.3% |
2011/10/08 | 10 | / 8 | TCU | 27 | at | 65 | / 60 | SDSU | 14 | 165 | 22.1% | / 22.6% |
2011/10/13 | 70 | / 57 | SDSU | 41 | at | 58 | / 51 | Air Force | 27 | 163 | 33.6% | / 37.8% |
2011/10/29 | 108 | / 96 | Wyoming | 30 | at | 66 | / 56 | SDSU | 27 | 180 | 87.2% | / 82.5% |
2011/11/05 | 120 | / 118 | New Mexico | 7 | at | 65 | / 57 | SDSU | 35 | 148 | 96.3% | / 96.1% |
2011/11/12 | 64 | / 57 | SDSU | 18 | at | 112 | / 112 | Colorado St. | 15 | 160 | 81.9% | / 86.5% |
2011/11/19 | 3 | / 9 | Boise St. | 52 | at | 63 | / 57 | SDSU | 35 | 184 | 9.4% | / 12.1% |
2011/11/26 | 57 | / 57 | SDSU | 31 | at | 115 | / 119 | UNLV | 14 | 159 | 87.5% | / 85.5% |
2011/12/03 | 86 | / 85 | Fresno St. | 28 | at | 59 | / 58 | SDSU | 35 | 173 | 68.2% | / 65.7% |
2011/12/17 | 91 | / 89 | LA-Lafayette | -- | vs | 59 | / 58 | SDSU | -- | -- | 70.7% | / 66.1% |
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/03 | 110 | / 112 | LA-Lafayette | 34 | at | 16 | / 12 | Oklahoma St. | 61 | 196 | 3.3% | / 5.6% |
2011/09/10 | 107 | / 105 | LA-Lafayette | 20 | at | 103 | / 104 | Kent St. | 12 | 165 | 34.3% | / 38.5% |
2011/09/24 | 103 | / 102 | LA-Lafayette | 36 | at | 68 | / 55 | FIU | 31 | 172 | 18.2% | / 20.8% |
2011/10/01 | 116 | / 112 | FL-Atlantic | 34 | at | 98 | / 95 | LA-Lafayette | 37 | 180 | 80.8% | / 81.2% |
2011/10/08 | 75 | / 88 | Troy | 17 | at | 99 | / 90 | LA-Lafayette | 31 | 181 | 37.9% | / 38.7% |
2011/10/15 | 103 | / 105 | North Texas | 10 | at | 94 | / 88 | LA-Lafayette | 30 | 149 | 68.4% | / 68.0% |
2011/10/22 | 93 | / 88 | LA-Lafayette | 23 | at | 104 | / 98 | Western Kentucky | 42 | 163 | 47.6% | / 70.7% |
2011/10/29 | 95 | / 90 | LA-Lafayette | 45 | at | 94 | / 103 | Middle Tenn. | 20 | 183 | 37.4% | / 67.5% |
2011/11/05 | 104 | / 103 | LA-Monroe | 35 | at | 91 | / 88 | LA-Lafayette | 36 | 184 | 65.2% | / 65.6% |
2011/11/12 | 93 | / 89 | LA-Lafayette | 21 | at | 74 | / 72 | Arkansas St. | 30 | 188 | 32.9% | / 43.1% |
2011/11/26 | 90 | / 89 | LA-Lafayette | 37 | at | 61 | / 58 | Arizona | 45 | 170 | 29.2% | / 36.6% |
2011/12/17 | 91 | / 89 | LA-Lafayette | -- | vs | 59 | / 58 | SDSU | -- | -- | 29.3% | / 33.9% |
32. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Friday, December 30 at 6:40 PM
Mississippi State Bulldogs (5 - 6; 2 - 6 SEC)
vs
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5 - 6; 5 - 3 ACC)
vs
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5 - 6; 5 - 3 ACC)
GUGS Score: 31.2
Justin
Mississippi State Bulldogs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.635 | 35 | 0.612 | 17 | 17.8 | 74 | 14.2 | 11 | 167.4 | 53 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.406 | 74 | 0.573 | 41 | 18.2 | 69 | 21.2 | 71 | 169.6 | 37 |
And here we have it: the first bowl game between two teams with losing records against FBS opponents. Our computers don't look at games against FCS/I-AA competition, so we see what the packed bowl season has brought us. To be fair, the Bulldogs lost to vastly superior teams that would be most anyone -- Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina -- while the Wake Forest is ... well, a product of the ACC. Just like with our last preview, this game is a story of two equivalent offenses and two diametrically opposed defenses. The bad news for the Demon Deacons is that the Bulldog defense is on par with top teams like Virginia Tech and Florida State; the good news is that Wake Forest has a 1-1 record against those teams. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, so expect the Bulldogs to pull away here. Mississippi St. 32, Wake Forest 27 (71.8%); 168 plays.
Eddie
Mississippi State Bulldogs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.725 | 35 | 0.559 | 5 | 16.0 | 63 | 10.6 | 9 | 162.6 | 102 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.395 | 73 | 0.512 | 63 | 14.6 | 75 | 16.4 | 64 | 167.5 | 48 |
Records don't tell the story here. Despite a losing record against FBS competition, Mississippi State is actually RBA #35 thanks to a respectable showing against a brutal schedule, including (1a) LSU, (1b) Alabama, (9) Arkansas, (10) South Carolina, and (12) Georgia. Statistically, they were likely to beat at least one of those teams by chance, but it's perfectly acceptable to go 0-5 against that group. The (44) Auburn loss was a little ugly, but even then, the Bulldogs were stopped an inch from the tying score. Wake Forest, on the other hand, didn't play quite the same schedule, but had similar outcomes. The Demon Deacons lost a bunch of games they were expected to lose and won a game where they were expected to be blown out (Florida State). This game should fall to the defenses. Mississippi State has played well against bad teams and poorly against good teams with 2.1 +/- 17.0 PPH efficiency. Wake Forest hasn't been particularly good against anybody but really bad against good teams at 6.6 +/- 19.7 PPH. Mississippi State boasts a better offense, too, so this one should be all Bulldogs, 34-17, with 71.8% confidence.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/01 | 32 | / 21 | Mississippi St. | 59 | at | 117 | / 115 | Memphis | 14 | 192 | 90.7% | / 96.4% |
2011/09/10 | 32 | / 22 | Mississippi St. | 34 | at | 17 | / 17 | Auburn | 41 | 191 | 26.4% | / 40.2% |
2011/09/15 | 7 | / 8 | LSU | 19 | at | 35 | / 26 | Mississippi St. | 6 | 150 | 30.6% | / 35.9% |
2011/09/24 | 76 | / 74 | LA Tech | 20 | at | 44 | / 28 | Mississippi St. | 26 | 180 | 78.1% | / 83.0% |
2011/10/01 | 44 | / 35 | Mississippi St. | 10 | at | 21 | / 22 | Georgia | 24 | 169 | 24.7% | / 43.3% |
2011/10/08 | 46 | / 33 | Mississippi St. | 21 | at | 112 | / 115 | UAB | 3 | 161 | 84.4% | / 92.4% |
2011/10/15 | 18 | / 11 | South Carolina | 14 | at | 45 | / 36 | Mississippi St. | 12 | 163 | 39.2% | / 43.1% |
2011/10/29 | 37 | / 29 | Mississippi St. | 28 | at | 82 | / 61 | Kentucky | 16 | 149 | 66.2% | / 62.9% |
2011/11/12 | 1 | / 1 | Alabama | 24 | at | 39 | / 30 | Mississippi St. | 7 | 155 | 6.3% | / 4.7% |
2011/11/19 | 39 | / 33 | Mississippi St. | 17 | at | 12 | / 8 | Arkansas | 44 | 173 | 30.3% | / 39.2% |
2011/11/26 | 92 | / 90 | Mississippi | 3 | at | 43 | / 35 | Mississippi St. | 31 | 151 | 78.7% | / 83.8% |
2011/12/30 | 74 | / 73 | Wake Forest | -- | vs | 35 | / 35 | Mississippi St. | -- | -- | 71.8% | / 71.8% |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/01 | 94 | / 91 | Wake Forest | 29 | at | 76 | / 68 | Syracuse | 36 | 177 | 27.1% | / 27.3% |
2011/09/10 | 24 | / 35 | North Carolina St. | 27 | at | 88 | / 95 | Wake Forest | 34 | 163 | 24.2% | / 14.8% |
2011/10/01 | 83 | / 84 | Wake Forest | 27 | at | 88 | / 88 | Boston College | 19 | 170 | 43.3% | / 45.9% |
2011/10/08 | 16 | / 14 | Florida St. | 30 | at | 82 | / 86 | Wake Forest | 35 | 181 | 18.6% | / 9.2% |
2011/10/15 | 13 | / 23 | Virginia Tech | 38 | at | 71 | / 81 | Wake Forest | 17 | 167 | 21.3% | / 17.2% |
2011/10/22 | 71 | / 81 | Wake Forest | 24 | at | 82 | / 70 | Duke | 23 | 170 | 45.5% | / 49.1% |
2011/10/29 | 72 | / 85 | Wake Forest | 24 | at | 39 | / 42 | North Carolina | 49 | 162 | 22.2% | / 29.9% |
2011/11/05 | 14 | / 15 | Notre Dame | 24 | at | 77 | / 91 | Wake Forest | 17 | 146 | 17.7% | / 20.2% |
2011/11/12 | 72 | / 88 | Wake Forest | 28 | at | 24 | / 14 | Clemson | 31 | 183 | 17.9% | / 16.2% |
2011/11/19 | 75 | / 109 | Maryland | 10 | at | 72 | / 77 | Wake Forest | 31 | 181 | 51.6% | / 54.1% |
2011/11/26 | 69 | / 31 | Vanderbilt | 41 | at | 67 | / 73 | Wake Forest | 7 | 164 | 51.0% | / 19.3% |
2011/12/30 | 74 | / 73 | Wake Forest | -- | vs | 35 | / 35 | Mississippi St. | -- | -- | 28.2% | / 28.2% |
31. BBVA Compass Bowl
Saturday, January 7 at 1:00 PM
Pittsburgh Panthers (5 - 6; 4 - 3 Big East)
vs
SMU Mustangs (6 - 5; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)
vs
SMU Mustangs (6 - 5; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)
GUGS Score: 31.4
Eddie
Pittsburgh Panthers | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.739 | 33 | 0.531 | 47 | 15.9 | 66 | 12.3 | 27 | 164.8 | 87 |
SMU Mustangs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.348 | 78 | 0.483 | 75 | 14.3 | 81 | 17.0 | 71 | 165.8 | 73 |
I had no idea that RBA thought Pittsburgh was the #33 team in the country until this write-up because they seem so unremarkable. Their offense is blase at 23.4 +/- 15.0 PPH, and their defense is a pedestrian 9.1 +/- 6.3 PPH. However, they should roll in this game because SMU can't play a lick of defense at 8.6 +/- 16.7 PPH. The Panthers should handle the Mustangs, 34-17, with 71.0% confidence.
Justin
Pittsburgh Panthers | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.658 | 30 | 0.556 | 50 | 20.7 | 47 | 15.9 | 27 | 167.4 | 52 |
SMU Mustangs | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.422 | 70 | 0.453 | 71 | 17.5 | 77 | 19.9 | 65 | 161.3 | 96 |
I have to admit that I was surprised, too, to see the Panthers ranked at #30 by TFG. The Big East is very ACC-ish in their football reputation -- or lack thereof -- and to see a 5-6 Big East team make the top quarter of the TFG rankings is ... eye-opening. If you look at their schedule, though, you see that the Panthers lost four games by a combined 11 points. This is a team that very easily could be 7-4 or even 8-3. SMU isn't quite as bad as Eddie claims they are, but they're still going to have an uphill battle here; they're spotting Pitt 3.2 PPH on offense and 4.0 PPH on defense. During an average game this works out to about 10 points, which explains why Pitt are strong favorites. Pittsburgh 33, SMU 27 (72.5%); 164 plays.
Pittsburgh Panthers Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/03 | 114 | / 118 | Buffalo | 16 | at | 24 | / 20 | Pittsburgh | 35 | 186 | 96.7% | / 97.1% |
2011/09/17 | 28 | / 33 | Pittsburgh | 27 | at | 20 | / 19 | Iowa | 31 | 183 | 33.6% | / 46.9% |
2011/09/24 | 24 | / 23 | Notre Dame | 15 | at | 30 | / 34 | Pittsburgh | 12 | 168 | 54.6% | / 55.6% |
2011/09/29 | 34 | / 42 | South Florida | 17 | at | 33 | / 23 | Pittsburgh | 44 | 190 | 60.5% | / 51.9% |
2011/10/08 | 28 | / 21 | Pittsburgh | 10 | at | 58 | / 59 | Rutgers | 34 | 170 | 63.8% | / 70.5% |
2011/10/15 | 37 | / 37 | Utah | 26 | at | 34 | / 40 | Pittsburgh | 14 | 170 | 60.5% | / 53.3% |
2011/10/26 | 63 | / 69 | Connecticut | 20 | at | 38 | / 38 | Pittsburgh | 35 | 176 | 73.3% | / 70.5% |
2011/11/05 | 36 | / 35 | Cincinnati | 26 | at | 33 | / 38 | Pittsburgh | 23 | 171 | 54.7% | / 58.8% |
2011/11/12 | 36 | / 36 | Pittsburgh | 21 | at | 50 | / 54 | Louisville | 14 | 145 | 53.6% | / 41.9% |
2011/11/25 | 33 | / 33 | Pittsburgh | 20 | at | 28 | / 34 | West Virginia | 21 | 175 | 46.6% | / 45.8% |
2011/12/03 | 80 | / 87 | Syracuse | 20 | at | 29 | / 33 | Pittsburgh | 33 | 163 | 75.3% | / 70.8% |
2012/01/07 | 70 | / 78 | SMU | -- | vs | 30 | / 33 | Pittsburgh | -- | -- | 72.5% | / 71.0% |
SMU Mustangs Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/04 | 73 | / 77 | SMU | 14 | at | 31 | / 28 | Texas A&M | 46 | 157 | 17.4% | / 25.9% |
2011/09/10 | 96 | / 96 | UTEP | 17 | at | 84 | / 84 | SMU | 28 | 155 | 69.1% | / 63.6% |
2011/09/24 | 80 | / 79 | SMU | 42 | at | 119 | / 120 | Memphis | 0 | 159 | 85.6% | / 83.4% |
2011/10/01 | 67 | / 69 | SMU | 40 | at | 9 | / 7 | TCU | 33 | 179 | 8.0% | / 8.2% |
2011/10/15 | 42 | / 48 | UCF | 17 | at | 63 | / 50 | SMU | 38 | 149 | 47.2% | / 22.3% |
2011/10/22 | 46 | / 52 | SMU | 3 | at | 59 | / 42 | Southern Miss. | 27 | 158 | 46.1% | / 47.8% |
2011/10/29 | 54 | / 62 | SMU | 7 | at | 49 | / 53 | Tulsa | 38 | 184 | 35.3% | / 42.4% |
2011/11/05 | 114 | / 115 | Tulane | 24 | at | 60 | / 64 | SMU | 45 | 163 | 88.8% | / 86.5% |
2011/11/12 | 57 | / 64 | Navy | 24 | at | 65 | / 66 | SMU | 17 | 150 | 49.3% | / 54.3% |
2011/11/19 | 65 | / 72 | SMU | 7 | at | 32 | / 45 | Houston | 37 | 167 | 31.2% | / 38.5% |
2011/11/26 | 96 | / 99 | Rice | 24 | at | 74 | / 78 | SMU | 27 | 158 | 66.5% | / 75.5% |
2012/01/07 | 70 | / 78 | SMU | -- | vs | 30 | / 33 | Pittsburgh | -- | -- | 27.5% | / 29.0% |
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