2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part II

Today is Part II of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Chick-fil-A Bowl
  Auburn Tigers vs Virginia Cavaliers
• Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl
  Northwestern Wildcats vs Texas A&M Aggies
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
  Ohio Bobcats vs Utah State Aggies
• Little Caesar's Bowl
  Purdue Boilermakers vs Western Michigan Broncos
• San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs TCU Horned Frogs

Full previews after the jump ....

30. Chick-fil-A Bowl

Saturday, December 31 at 7:30 PM

Auburn Tigers (6 - 5; 4 - 4 SEC)
vs
Virginia Cavaliers (7 - 4; 5 - 3 ACC)

GUGS Score: 34.2

Justin

Auburn Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.627	40	0.697	1	25.0	18	20.4	68	163.3	81

Virginia Cavaliers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.405	75	0.529	60	15.5	97	18.1	50	167.8	48

Has an ACC/SEC matchup ever turned out well for the ACC (at least in football)? Last year's national champions basically ran out of luck this year and ran into the LSU/Alabama buzzsaw. Throw in losses to Arkansas, Georgia, and Clemson (wait, what?) and you've got a good Auburn team that simply got overwhelmed -- or was on the receiving end of karmic payback for last year. The Cavaliers appear to be a team on the way up, but TFG says they really haven't improved their station too much over last year; they've only climbed 11 spots in the rankings since the end of the 2010 season. At first glance this might appear to be a matchup of two well-matched, middle-of-the-pack BCS schools, but in reality this one won't end well for the Cavaliers. Auburn 35, Virginia 29 (71.1%); 165 plays.

Eddie

Auburn Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.655	44	0.551	10	19.6	27	16.1	60	159.1	117

Virginia Cavaliers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.413	71	0.528	51	13.4	88	15.1	56	164.2	91

It's hard to argue with Justin's summary. Auburn holds nearly a touchdown per hundred play advantage over Virginia on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, the 11.8 +/- 6.5 PPH Cavalier defense is nearly even with Auburn's 10.0 +/- 12.3 PPH defense. Maybe Gus Malzahn's departure for Arkansas State will result in reduced efficiency, but that looks like Virginia's best bet at winning this game. RBA says Auburn, 31-20, with 62.0% confidence.

Auburn Tigers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	97	/ 114	Utah St.	38	at	10	/   8	Auburn	42	166	96.2%	/  93.4%
2011/09/10	32	/  22	Mississippi St.	34	at	17	/  17	Auburn	41	191	73.6%	/  59.8%
2011/09/17	14	/  18	Auburn	24	at	26	/  29	Clemson	38	181	52.3%	/  54.3%
2011/09/24	116	/ 114	FL-Atlantic	14	at	19	/  17	Auburn	30	152	98.1%	/  95.2%
2011/10/01	28	/  13	Auburn	16	at	18	/  18	South Carolina	13	170	36.9%	/  44.0%
2011/10/08	26	/  22	Auburn	14	at	17	/  12	Arkansas	38	178	35.4%	/  36.9%
2011/10/15	8	/  14	Florida	6	at	27	/  25	Auburn	17	149	44.8%	/  17.6%
2011/10/22	24	/  30	Auburn	10	at	2	/   3	LSU	45	144	11.4%	/  13.0%
2011/10/29	74	/  72	Mississippi	23	at	29	/  28	Auburn	41	163	84.2%	/  73.0%
2011/11/12	29	/  38	Auburn	7	at	23	/  13	Georgia	45	143	40.6%	/  32.3%
2011/11/26	1	/   1	Alabama	42	at	39	/  44	Auburn	14	136	5.3%	/   3.9%
2011/12/31	75	/  71	Virginia	--	vs	40	/  44	Auburn	--	--	71.1%	/  62.0%

Virginia Cavaliers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	86	/  75	Virginia	34	at	94	/  97	Indiana	31	171	41.2%	/  57.3%
2011/09/17	90	/  80	Virginia	17	at	44	/  44	North Carolina	28	164	17.2%	/  22.4%
2011/09/24	69	/  61	Southern Miss.	30	at	87	/  83	Virginia	24	189	50.2%	/  66.7%
2011/10/01	104	/ 103	Idaho	20	at	87	/  82	Virginia	21	195	73.5%	/  69.1%
2011/10/15	31	/  38	Georgia Tech	21	at	85	/  86	Virginia	24	148	25.9%	/  22.4%
2011/10/22	57	/  64	North Carolina St.	28	at	78	/  83	Virginia	14	172	45.3%	/  58.3%
2011/10/27	79	/  84	Virginia	28	at	22	/  83	Miami-FL	21	144	10.3%	/  36.8%
2011/11/05	75	/  78	Virginia	31	at	64	/  98	Maryland	13	171	40.8%	/  37.2%
2011/11/12	86	/  83	Duke	21	at	68	/  69	Virginia	31	170	66.6%	/  53.5%
2011/11/19	66	/  67	Virginia	14	at	10	/  14	Florida St.	13	154	15.7%	/  13.0%
2011/11/26	14	/  20	Virginia Tech	38	at	66	/  69	Virginia	0	151	19.9%	/  24.1%
2011/12/31	75	/  71	Virginia	--	vs	40	/  44	Auburn	--	--	28.9%	/  38.0%

29. Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl

Saturday, December 31 at 12:00 PM

Northwestern Wildcats (5 - 6; 3 - 5 Big Ten)
vs
Texas A&M Aggies (6 - 6; 4 - 5 Big XII)

GUGS Score: 38.2

Eddie

Northwestern Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.509	59	0.511	64	16.8	53	16.1	59	176.5	2

Texas A&M Aggies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.886	16	0.555	9	22.6	13	12.0	23	172.7	11

We've covered Northwestern as the luckiest team in FBS before, but it sure seems likes Texas A&M is the most unlucky team in modern memory. The Aggies led Oklahoma State by 17, Arkansas by 18, Missouri by 11, Kansas State by 10, and Texas by 13 and managed to lose all of them. Yes, ladies and gents, the Aggies could have been 11-1 if they hadn't blown big leads. Unlike all those RBA top 30 opponents, Northwestern is just a lucky middle-of-the-pack team. Their 21.6 +/- 9.5 PPH offense isn't much, and their 5.7 +/- 20.8 PPH defense lets them down against top competition. Really, this game is the Aggies' to lose. Their 33.5 +/- 21.9 PPH offense should be more than sufficient, provided their equally flaky (but superior) 1.3 +/- 21.4 PPH defense doesn't perform too badly. RBA considers this game the second most certain victory of the bowl season, 35-27, in favor of Texas A&M with 78.9% confidence.

Justin

Northwestern Wildcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.485	65	0.517	63	19.3	61	19.8	64	173.7	21

Texas A&M Aggies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.745	21	0.596	24	22.4	29	14.6	17	183.7	2

Northwestern is lucky. Very lucky. And they've done it again this year; according to TFG, the Wildcats should have won about 4.1 games this year, and here they are with 5 wins (they were even 73 seconds away from having 6 wins). A&M, on the other hand, is going to need all the luck they can get as they wander into the SEC next year. Normally when you've got a losing record in the Big XII, jumping ship to the strongest conference in FBS isn't considered the wisest career move, but the Aggies are going to give it a shot. The good news for A&M is that their defense isn't nearly as bad as the raw stats would indicate, since only Oregon plays at a faster clip. They should try and savor this victory, though, as all signs indicate that playing fast in the SEC really just translates into spotting LSU and Alabama a few early touchdowns. Until then, Happy New Year! Texas A&M 37, Northwestern 30 (75.7%); 178 plays.

Northwestern Wildcats Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	71	/  69	Northwestern	24	at	58	/  65	Boston College	17	176	27.4%	/  40.9%
2011/09/17	69	/  74	Northwestern	14	at	89	/  75	Army	21	164	51.7%	/  39.3%
2011/10/01	75	/  86	Northwestern	35	at	35	/  30	Illinois	38	166	18.7%	/  28.6%
2011/10/08	12	/  25	Michigan	42	at	68	/  79	Northwestern	24	169	23.0%	/  23.0%
2011/10/15	68	/  87	Northwestern	31	at	35	/  22	Iowa	41	168	21.5%	/  23.7%
2011/10/22	26	/  40	Penn State	34	at	69	/  86	Northwestern	24	165	31.7%	/  24.4%
2011/10/29	71	/  68	Northwestern	59	at	99	/ 104	Indiana	38	182	59.5%	/  70.0%
2011/11/05	67	/  65	Northwestern	28	at	12	/  16	Nebraska	25	171	14.6%	/  20.9%
2011/11/12	94	/  96	Rice	6	at	67	/  58	Northwestern	28	149	73.0%	/  75.1%
2011/11/19	91	/ 113	Minnesota	13	at	60	/  56	Northwestern	28	169	69.4%	/  75.7%
2011/11/26	13	/  18	Michigan St.	31	at	62	/  59	Northwestern	17	156	20.6%	/  26.3%
2011/12/31	21	/  16	Texas A&M	--	vs	65	/  59	Northwestern	--	--	24.3%	/  21.1%

Texas A&M Aggies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/04	73	/  77	SMU	14	at	31	/  28	Texas A&M	46	157	82.6%	/  74.1%
2011/09/17	100	/ 101	Idaho	7	at	19	/  17	Texas A&M	37	168	93.0%	/  84.9%
2011/09/24	17	/  10	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	/  14	Texas A&M	29	199	61.7%	/  47.3%
2011/10/01	12	/  14	Texas A&M	38	vs	13	/  16	Arkansas	42	208	51.6%	/  48.4%
2011/10/08	15	/  20	Texas A&M	45	at	42	/  45	Texas Tech	40	211	62.8%	/  67.9%
2011/10/15	46	/  42	Baylor	28	at	16	/  15	Texas A&M	55	181	77.9%	/  70.2%
2011/10/22	13	/  13	Texas A&M	33	at	84	/  84	Iowa St.	17	196	82.4%	/  84.0%
2011/10/29	26	/  23	Missouri	38	at	14	/  19	Texas A&M	31	203	69.5%	/  55.9%
2011/11/05	20	/  22	Texas A&M	25	at	5	/   5	Oklahoma	41	214	23.3%	/  29.7%
2011/11/12	20	/  21	Texas A&M	50	at	38	/  32	Kansas St.	53	206	59.2%	/  58.3%
2011/11/19	102	/  89	Kansas	7	at	23	/  22	Texas A&M	61	164	89.6%	/  90.0%
2011/11/24	24	/  22	Texas	27	at	21	/  16	Texas A&M	25	190	54.1%	/  58.3%
2011/12/31	21	/  16	Texas A&M	--	vs	65	/  59	Northwestern	--	--	75.7%	/  78.9%

28. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Saturday, December 17 at 5:50 PM

Ohio Bobcats (8 - 4; 6 - 3 Mid-Atlantic)
vs
Utah State Aggies (6 - 5; 5 - 2 Western Atlantic)

GUGS Score: 38.7

Justin

Ohio Bobcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.426	68	0.288	119	19.8	54	22.3	84	167.6	49

Utah State Aggies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.378	80	0.386	92	19.1	63	23.3	89	173.5	22

We're starting to get into not-horrible territory here. Both teams are the equivalent of middle-to-lower tier BCS conference teams, they just happen to play in the MAC and the WAC. The main shortcoming for both teams is defense, or a lack thereof. Both teams are on an upswing, though it's a tenuous one; Utah State hasn't won a game by more than a touchdown since early October, and while Ohio does have some decent wins, they've been a bit liberal in allowing points. Between the iffy defenses and fast-ish pace, this should be a high-scoring affair in which the Bobcats eek out a win. Ohio 36, Utah St. 35 (55.0%); 170 plays.

Eddie

Ohio Bobcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.445	66	0.431	116	16.5	58	17.0	70	162.4	103

Utah State Aggies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.364	76	0.499	68	16.7	54	18.3	78	168.5	37

Neither team is particularly strong on either side of the ball, but they're certainly consistent. Offensively, these teams are virtually identical. The Bobcat offensive efficiency is 19.6 +/- 6.3 PPH, whereas the Aggie offensive efficiency is 19.5 +/- 5.8 PPH. The game is likely to be decided when Ohio is on defense. The Bobcat defense is a superior 11.1 +/- 11.9 PPH, but Utah State is more consistent at 14.6 +/- 7.3 PPH. The difference in efficiency tips the scale towards Ohio, 34-24, but with only 54.2% confidence.

Ohio Bobcats Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	83	/  85	Ohio	44	at	120	/ 116	New Mexico St.	24	169	79.6%	/  93.0%
2011/09/17	91	/  99	Marshall	7	at	83	/  73	Ohio	44	173	63.7%	/  59.7%
2011/09/24	70	/  69	Ohio	26	at	64	/  68	Rutgers	38	165	35.9%	/  47.7%
2011/10/01	111	/ 108	Kent St.	10	at	74	/  79	Ohio	17	173	85.5%	/  78.9%
2011/10/08	74	/  84	Ohio	37	at	114	/ 114	Buffalo	38	183	78.1%	/  77.7%
2011/10/15	107	/  94	Ball St.	23	at	76	/  85	Ohio	20	168	82.7%	/  66.7%
2011/10/22	81	/  87	Ohio	37	at	119	/ 119	Akron	20	177	84.6%	/  93.3%
2011/11/02	31	/  36	Temple	31	at	80	/  82	Ohio	35	156	22.8%	/  17.6%
2011/11/10	73	/  63	Ohio	43	at	104	/ 109	Central Michigan	28	190	69.2%	/  60.0%
2011/11/16	74	/  62	Ohio	29	at	101	/ 103	Bowling Green	28	158	67.7%	/  73.4%
2011/11/22	85	/  90	Miami-OH	14	at	74	/  62	Ohio	21	174	58.2%	/  71.8%
2011/12/02	69	/  66	Ohio	20	vs	55	/  63	Northern Ill.	23	157	38.6%	/  49.1%
2011/12/17	80	/  76	Utah St.	--	vs	68	/  66	Ohio	--	--	55.0%	/  54.2%

Utah State Aggies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	97	/ 114	Utah St.	38	at	10	/   8	Auburn	42	166	3.8%	/   6.6%
2011/09/24	112	/ 109	Colorado St.	35	at	92	/ 107	Utah St.	34	175	79.7%	/  64.1%
2011/09/30	94	/ 105	Utah St.	24	at	52	/  52	BYU	27	173	16.8%	/  27.6%
2011/10/08	104	/ 107	Wyoming	19	at	91	/  80	Utah St.	63	180	73.5%	/  59.7%
2011/10/15	79	/  73	Utah St.	21	at	74	/  76	Fresno St.	31	177	38.9%	/  41.3%
2011/10/22	68	/  76	LA Tech	24	at	76	/  80	Utah St.	17	170	55.3%	/  55.1%
2011/11/05	82	/  81	Utah St.	35	at	71	/  63	Hawaii	31	161	39.3%	/  41.5%
2011/11/12	103	/  99	SJSU	33	at	81	/  79	Utah St.	34	177	72.6%	/  70.7%
2011/11/19	81	/  79	Utah St.	49	at	108	/ 106	Idaho	42	194	72.2%	/  75.1%
2011/11/26	48	/  55	Nevada	17	at	82	/  79	Utah St.	21	158	29.0%	/  36.3%
2011/12/03	79	/  76	Utah St.	24	at	115	/ 106	New Mexico St.	21	179	80.3%	/  77.6%
2011/12/17	80	/  76	Utah St.	--	vs	68	/  66	Ohio	--	--	45.0%	/  45.8%

27. Little Caesar's Bowl

Tuesday, December 27 at 4:30 PM

Purdue Boilermakers (5 - 6; 4 - 4 Big Ten)
vs
Western Michigan Broncos (6 - 5; 5 - 3 Mid-Atlantic)

GUGS Score: 40.7

Eddie

Purdue Boilermakers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.366	75	0.534	39	14.3	80	16.2	61	172.8	9

Western Michigan Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.357	77	0.459	97	17.2	46	19.7	91	170.5	21

Western Michigan has a real problem here. Why is that? They're less consistent than Purdue. Yes, that Purdue. The Broncos have a superior offense at 26.7 +/- 19.0 PPH, but their defense is all over the place at 9.0 +/- 21.4 PPH. The Boilermakers are awful on offense, sporting a 20.6 +/- 12.6 PPH efficiency. Having missed their chance to fire Danny Hope in favor of Mike Leach, Rich Rodriguez, Gus Malzahn, Jim McElwain, you get the idea, that efficiency is unlikely to change soon. Their only saving grace is that their 7.3 +/- 17.9 PPH defense isn't as bad as Western Michigan. This battle of bottom 45 teams should tip towards Purdue, 34-27, at only 50.4% confidence. Even at 50.4% confidence, this game is only the third hardest to predict in the entire bowl season.

Justin

Purdue Boilermakers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.410	73	0.583	34	15.9	92	18.4	54	174.0	18

Western Michigan Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.456	67	0.343	112	19.9	52	21.3	76	173.2	23

This is possibly the first game in our countdown that will help us see whether or not strength of schedule matters. The Broncos played the ninth-weakest schedule in FBS, while the Boilermakers' schedule nearly ranked in the top third. With the exception of a win against UConn (by 7) and a loss to Eastern Michigan (by 4), the Broncos' season unfolded as expected. Purdue was a bit less predictable, winning games they should have lost (Illinois and Ohio State) and losing where they should have won (Rice). Both teams play slightly up-tempo, but neither has a real firepower of an offense. This will be fast but low-scoring, and close at the end. Expect the Broncos to pull off the upset, although just barely. Western Michigan 33, Purdue 32 (54.7%); 173 plays.

Purdue Boilermakers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	96	/ 100	Middle Tenn.	24	at	82	/  86	Purdue	27	196	70.6%	/  70.6%
2011/09/10	74	/  93	Purdue	22	at	104	/ 100	Rice	24	182	59.0%	/  42.3%
2011/10/01	19	/  25	Notre Dame	38	at	82	/  92	Purdue	10	178	21.1%	/  17.3%
2011/10/08	96	/ 112	Minnesota	17	at	87	/  87	Purdue	45	159	66.1%	/  58.0%
2011/10/15	73	/  78	Purdue	18	at	24	/  35	Penn State	23	161	13.1%	/  16.7%
2011/10/22	38	/  37	Illinois	14	at	72	/  74	Purdue	21	171	39.2%	/  23.5%
2011/10/29	69	/  70	Purdue	14	at	18	/  26	Michigan	36	150	13.1%	/  16.3%
2011/11/05	72	/  72	Purdue	17	at	7	/   8	Wisconsin	62	166	8.4%	/   8.1%
2011/11/12	8	/  16	Ohio St.	23	at	78	/  74	Purdue	26	178	14.4%	/  14.2%
2011/11/19	35	/  29	Iowa	31	at	70	/  74	Purdue	21	166	30.3%	/  24.7%
2011/11/26	73	/  75	Purdue	33	at	103	/ 101	Indiana	25	173	71.0%	/  68.9%
2011/12/27	67	/  77	Western Michigan	--	vs	73	/  75	Purdue	--	--	45.3%	/  50.4%

Western Michigan Broncos Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	67	/  88	Western Michigan	10	at	62	/  54	Michigan	34	110	32.2%	/  18.7%
2011/09/17	87	/ 102	Central Michigan	14	at	84	/  87	Western Michigan	44	157	61.1%	/  61.5%
2011/09/24	72	/  76	Western Michigan	20	at	34	/  24	Illinois	23	173	20.2%	/  10.2%
2011/10/01	68	/  65	Western Michigan	38	at	53	/  62	Connecticut	31	184	30.2%	/  31.2%
2011/10/08	94	/  98	Bowling Green	21	at	63	/  64	Western Michigan	45	160	79.0%	/  56.7%
2011/10/15	61	/  66	Western Michigan	22	at	56	/  68	Northern Ill.	51	188	38.4%	/  57.2%
2011/10/22	66	/  73	Western Michigan	10	at	116	/ 111	Eastern Michigan	14	149	84.6%	/  92.7%
2011/10/29	107	/ 100	Ball St.	35	at	68	/  77	Western Michigan	45	197	84.9%	/  74.5%
2011/11/08	70	/  75	Western Michigan	63	at	48	/  50	Toledo	66	221	31.0%	/  35.2%
2011/11/16	68	/  78	Western Michigan	24	at	85	/  90	Miami-OH	21	180	61.3%	/  66.0%
2011/11/25	120	/ 120	Akron	19	at	68	/  77	Western Michigan	68	172	95.0%	/  93.9%
2011/12/27	67	/  77	Western Michigan	--	vs	73	/  75	Purdue	--	--	54.7%	/  49.6%

26. San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl

Wednesday, December 21 at 8:00 PM

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7 - 4; 6 - 1 Western Atlantic)
vs
TCU Horned Frogs (9 - 2; 7 - 0 Mountain West)

GUGS Score: 41.1

Justin

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.571	50	0.402	89	17.0	85	15.2	21	179.0	6

TCU Horned Frogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.856	7	0.408	88	29.6	7	14.5	15	161.9	92

Both teams won their last seven games, but that's about where the comparisons end. While TCU isn't the juggernaut they were last season when they beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, they're still too much for poor, overmatched Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs actually have a top-25 defense, but their offense is in serious danger of being shut out here. Yes, the Horned Frog defense is that good, and the Bulldog offense is that lackluster. To make it worse, Louisiana Tech tries to play fast; this will just give TCU more chances to be dominant and force the Bulldogs into 3-and-out situations. TFG is going to be charitable with the score, but predicts a dominating TCU victory. TCU 38, LA Tech 26 (81.8%); 170 plays.

Eddie

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.504	60	0.498	69	14.8	71	13.9	43	172.8	10

TCU Horned Frogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.903	14	0.464	92	24.1	8	13.3	35	167.7	45

TCU didn't quite live up to their preseason #1 ranking this year, but they still managed to stay a top 15 team, thanks to an explosive 32.7 +/- 17.2 PPH offense. However, their defense took a major step backwards to 5.0 +/- 16.7 PPH, struggling against strong competition unlike previous seasons. Louisiana Tech finished strong, beating a bunch of awful teams and Nevada. The Bulldogs just never separated themselves from the competition to distinguish themselves as a contender of any kind. This game shouldn't be that close because Louisiana Tech is worse on both sides of the ball. RBA says TCU wins, 34-24, with 77.9% confidence.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	79	/  79	LA Tech	17	at	60	/  58	Southern Miss.	19	179	24.6%	/  30.6%
2011/09/17	63	/  67	Houston	35	at	77	/  79	LA Tech	34	205	48.8%	/  35.5%
2011/09/24	76	/  74	LA Tech	20	at	44	/  28	Mississippi St.	26	180	21.9%	/  17.0%
2011/10/01	64	/  61	Hawaii	44	at	72	/  76	LA Tech	26	189	55.8%	/  35.3%
2011/10/08	77	/  76	LA Tech	24	at	101	/ 101	Idaho	11	189	63.5%	/  76.8%
2011/10/22	68	/  76	LA Tech	24	at	76	/  80	Utah St.	17	170	44.7%	/  44.9%
2011/10/29	104	/  99	SJSU	28	at	67	/  75	LA Tech	38	187	84.4%	/  73.5%
2011/11/05	66	/  70	LA Tech	41	at	69	/  83	Fresno St.	21	170	47.2%	/  46.6%
2011/11/12	63	/  68	LA Tech	27	at	82	/  87	Mississippi	7	179	57.3%	/  49.8%
2011/11/19	59	/  63	LA Tech	24	at	44	/  55	Nevada	20	182	39.4%	/  41.4%
2011/11/26	110	/ 104	New Mexico St.	0	at	58	/  61	LA Tech	44	173	84.2%	/  79.2%
2011/12/21	7	/  14	TCU	--	vs	50	/  60	LA Tech	--	--	18.2%	/  22.1%

TCU Horned Frogs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/02	1	/   4	TCU	48	at	65	/  55	Baylor	50	177	89.9%	/  90.3%
2011/09/10	4	/   8	TCU	35	at	46	/  39	Air Force	19	160	75.1%	/  88.0%
2011/09/17	113	/ 107	LA-Monroe	17	at	8	/   6	TCU	38	159	98.7%	/  97.1%
2011/10/01	67	/  69	SMU	40	at	9	/   7	TCU	33	179	92.0%	/  91.8%
2011/10/08	10	/   8	TCU	27	at	65	/  60	SDSU	14	165	77.9%	/  77.4%
2011/10/22	118	/ 116	New Mexico	0	at	9	/  12	TCU	69	142	99.0%	/  97.6%
2011/10/28	8	/  13	TCU	38	vs	61	/  54	BYU	28	171	85.1%	/  75.9%
2011/11/05	9	/  17	TCU	31	at	102	/  94	Wyoming	20	156	93.9%	/  93.7%
2011/11/12	9	/  12	TCU	36	at	3	/   8	Boise St.	35	162	28.6%	/  29.6%
2011/11/19	111	/ 110	Colorado St.	10	at	8	/  13	TCU	34	150	96.4%	/  95.5%
2011/12/03	114	/ 118	UNLV	9	at	8	/  14	TCU	56	144	96.9%	/  95.5%
2011/12/21	7	/  14	TCU	--	vs	50	/  60	LA Tech	--	--	81.8%	/  77.9%

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